Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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This Thursday night, we are gifted a matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to East Rutherford to face the playoff-hopeful New York Jets. Both teams are on the outside looking in to the AFC playoff picture and will need some luck, and likely need to run the table in order to clinch that 7th seed. Jacksonville has won 3 of it’s last 4, including an OT win against the Cowboys last week. The Jets are the exact opposite; they’ve lost 3 straight and Zach Wilson will be under center for the 2nd week in a row after Mike White was unable to be cleared to play with a rib injury. The weather is not optimistic for a high scoring game. Current forecasts call for potentially heavy rainfall and 10-20mph winds.
Check out our full Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets predictions.
Zach Wilson under 30.5 pass attempts (-110)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m going to put my head-coaching cap on briefly for this play. The Jets are 4-2 when Wilson stays under this line. They are 1-2 when he goes over. For New York to come out of this game with a win, they will need to force turnovers and establish a run game. Last week vs Detroit, they didn’t establish the run game and were forced to rely on Wilson to make splash plays, which he did, but nothing consistent across 4 quarters. Detroit ranked 1st overall in Opp Rush Yards per game (55 YPG) over the last 3, where Jacksonville ranks 18th (130YPG). I have question marks about who could lead the NY backfield in touches (Knight, Carter, Robinson), but I feel confident Wilson will be limited in his opportunities to pass the ball. The weather projecting to be 10-20mph and up to 1 inch of rain certainly adds to my confidence. 1U
Evan Engram over 40.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on BetMGM sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It’s tough to find a weakness in the NY Jets defense, but I may have pinpointed one: the middle of the field. New York is outstanding at defending the perimeter with their shutdown corners and even Michael Carter II in the slot, but we’ve seen TEs have success against this Jets defense. Mark Andrews 5-52, Harrison Bryant 3-45, Pat Freiermuth 7-85, Robert Tonyan 10-90, and Dawson Knox 4-41. Even Brock Wright last week had his longest reception of his career (51) for the game winning touchdown. Engram sees 53% of his targets in short yardage situation and 29% in the middle of the field.
It’s also where he has the most YAC all season (90 yards). The Jets rank 19th in DVOA for passing in the middle of the field; their weakest metric across the board. I expect Lawrence to have a tough time finding Zay Jones and Christian Kirk tomorrow night, but Engram has excelled against both man and zone coverages all season. 1U
Anytime TD Scorers
Zonovan Knight +150
Trevor Lawrence +500
