Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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After a “wild” Wild Card weekend, we head into Divisional Weekend with a 4-game slate. The first of which is Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5). It will be difficult for me to believe Jacksonville can go on the road and knockoff the Super Bowl favorite and MVP. However, Doug Pederson is good enough to keep this game competitive. I lean the +8.5 and believe Trevor Lawrence inserts himself into the conversation of Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert as the elite tier of the league. This is the highest total of the weekend at 52.5 and has a lot of great player props to sort through. Let’s dive in.
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Travis Etienne over 17.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Chiefs allow the 2nd most passes per game to opposing RBs (7.8) and a league worst 49.2 yards per game. Etienne hit this in his Week 10 matchup with the Chiefs (28 yards), as have other RBs against this Kansas City defense. The issue is that the Chiefs are allowing the 2nd most explosive pass plays to RBs with 7 total receptions of 20+ yards to opposing RBs.
Etienne has 35 receptions on the year, but an outstanding 10.2 YAC/REC rate; he’s making plays with his legs after he catches the ball. KC has two of the worst coverage LBs in the league in Darius Harris and Willie Gay Jr. Both rank top 28 for LBs in missed coverage tackles. Etienne has hit this in 5/12 starts, but two games he landed on 17. I like Etienne to break a big reception in this game and should still finish with 2 receptions. 1U
Check out our Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
JuJu Smith-Schuster over 51.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Mecole Hardman is still not expected to return as he has not practiced this week (as of Wednesday). This should slide Juju Smith-Schuster into that slot role for the Chiefs. The results have been mixed for Juju this season. He started the year strong and faded towards the end. However, I like this matchup this weekend with Jags Nickel CB Tre Herndon. Since moving Darious Williams to the outside, the Jags have done a great job shutting down the perimeter of the field. Herndon has been in the slot since Week 14 and is allowing 14.8 y/rec.
Schuster missed the entire second half of the Week 10 matchup with Jacksonville but finished 4 targets, 2 receptions and 33 yards in the first half of play. I expect this to be a high-scoring game with Smith-Schuster owning the middle of the field. Of all his targets, 54% are in the middle of the field. The Jaguars rank 30th in DVOA for passes in the middle; it’s an under the radar play, but will pay dividends. 1U
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Trevor Lawrence +400
JuJu Smith-Schuster +180
Evan Engram +240
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