Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The Broncos are playing their 3rd primetime game in 5 weeks as the Indianapolis Colts (+3) hobble into Denver for Thursday Night Football. The big story of this game must be the injuries. The Colts will be missing RB Jonathan Taylor, LB Shaquille Leonard and DE Tyquan Lewis. The Broncos are not immune to the injury bug, with RB Javonte Williams now on IR for a torn ACL/LCL. Both teams have failed to live up to expectations through the first quarter of the season, but Thursday night could be a spot to turn it around. The O/U is set at 42.5, and finding value in player props has been difficult, but let’s look at our lineup.
Be sure to check out our full Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos predictions
Michael Pittman over 5.5 receptions (+105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
I view this line as an overreaction to last week. Pittman is averaging 10+ targets per game and coming off his worst performance of the year. We saw a similar situation to Justin Jefferson last week, getting over 6.5 receptions at plus odds, and I made sure to hammer that play accordingly. It’s important not to overreact to one game, even if it is the most recent one. Despite Patrick Surtain grading out very positively against the Raiders last week, he still gave up 7 receptions on 12 targets. I will take this at plus-money odds any day. I’m on for 1U.
Our Colts vs Broncos Same Game Parlay is available at +525 odds!
Melvin Gordon over 12.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Javonte Williams’ injury provides Melvin Gordon with a big opportunity. The Broncos signed Latavius Murray this week, who may provide value in short-yardage situations, but I do not expect him to be thrust into a significant workload in his first game. Mike Boone is currently on the roster as a 3rd-down running back, but Broncos fans express concern with his pass protection. While Boone did see more targets than Gordon last week, I chalk that up to Gordon’s fumble. This was a polite way of benching him.
My expectation is that Gordon sees 60-70% of the snaps on Thursday night and a bulk of the 16% target share that Javonte left behind. MGIII has proven to be a reliable pass-catcher through four weeks, catching 8/10 targets for 49 yards (6 YPC). Colts All-Pro ILB Shaq Leonard leaves a hole in the middle of the field that Gordon can exploit in space. I have Gordon finishing closer to 3 catches for 20 yards, which is significantly higher than this line. Put me down for 1U.
Our NFL expert Clevta has chosen his Colts vs Broncos best bets
Bradley Chubb over 0.5 sacks (+130)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Chubb is quietly on pace for the best year of his career. He’s notched 3 sacks in 4 games with 1 FF. I’m expecting the Colts offense to run more uptempo and pass-heavy with Jonathan Taylor sidelined and this is a great spot for Chubb to pick up another sack. The Colts’ LT Matt Pryor has been up and down this season. He’s allowed 2 sacks and 9 QB pressures through 4 games with the sacks being given up against the Jaguars and Titans. Both of those teams are ranked top 15 in pass rush according to PFF. The Broncos? Top 5. Matt Ryan is top 12 in the league in number of dropbacks while under pressure (42). I’m expecting that to continue Thursday night and grabbing this for 1U at + odds.
Lock in our best Colts vs Broncos touchdown scorer bets, including plays at +150 and +190
Anytime touchdown scorer best bets for Colts vs Broncos
Melvin Gordon (+120)
Jerry Jeudy (+210)
Philip Lindsay (+280)
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