Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We get our first glimpse of Russell Wilson in a Denver Broncos uniform on Monday night following his trade from Seattle. He is following the trend of veteran QBs to leave their initial franchise in search of greener pastures. That list includes Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Stafford and Joe Montana. Three of those players won a Super Bowl with their second team. I’m very high on Wilson this year and love him as an MVP candidate at 14/1 if you can still nab it. For now, let’s focus on Monday night and my favorite prop plays for the Broncos vs Seahawks game.
Check out our full Broncos vs Seahawks predictions
Brandon McManus over 2.5 PATs made (+123)
New Broncos OC Justin Outten has gone on record stating that he believes his team could be the highest-scoring offense in the league and I believe him. Russell Wilson has a bevy of weapons at his disposal in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon — in short, this team should put up points. The line on Broncos to score over 2.5 TDs is at -190 so I’m going to pivot to their kicker hitting his XPs at +123. Brendon McManus is 97.3% on XPs for his career and nearly 95% on the road. In 8 seasons, McManus has hit 97% or better in 6/8. I like the Broncos to run an up-tempo offense on Monday night that puts points on the board. Give me the plus-odds.
Check out our Denver Broncos 2022 team preview
Russell Wilson over 1.5 passing TDs (-145)
This pick is heavily juiced, but for good reason. Wilson didn’t play in the preseason and will be fast-tracked to play on Monday night in Nathaniel Hackett’s West Coast offense. We saw the wonders it did for Aaron Rodgers when Matt LaFleur went to Green Bay and it’s reasonable to believe that we will see similar success with Wilson this year. In 2021, Wilson threw for 2+ TDs in 9/15 games in an offense that struggled mightily, but over the last 3 years he’s thrown for 2+ scores in 30/47 (63%) games. I love the receivers at his disposal in Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler and Albert Okwuegbunam. Expect a high-tempo offense and for the Broncos to come out of the gate firing.
Russell Wilson over 11.5 rushing yards (-120)
Hackett is a disciple of the Mike Shanahan offense, and his OC is Matt LaFleur’s previous tight ends coach. It’s safe to assume they share similar offensive philosophies. Since we do not have a real benchmark for Wilson in this type of offense, let’s focus on what we know. The Broncos will be running an outside zone blocking scheme that stretches the rush to the sideline with the ability for Williams to cut inside when he finds a gap. Why does this matter for a Wilson rushing prop? Because when that type of offense is run successfully the opportunity for a QB bootleg leaves us with wide open space on the opposite side of the field.
Russ has cleared this line in 50% of his starts over the last 3 seasons and whispers in camp are that he still has his wheels. The kicker for me is watching him scramble for a first down in front of Pete Carroll and popping up with a smile. As far as Russ’s willingness to run, it’s still there. He’s had 2+ rushing attempts in 13/14 games last season and if this offense is rolling, he should have some room to take off.
Anytime TD scorer picks
- Courtland Sutton (Broncos) +135
- Albert Okwuegbunam (Broncos) +240
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