Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Week 17 Thursday Night Football is between the Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) and the Tennessee Titans. It’s one of the stranger matchups we have seen in a long list of unfulfilling primetime games this season. The Titans head into the matchup with outcome having no bearing on their playoffs hopes. Win or lose, the division will be settled in Week 18 against Jacksonville. As a result, head coach Mike Vrabel is expected to sit many key starters — including All-Pro running back Derrick Henry. On the Cowboys’ side, they also have little to play for but there is an outside chance they could steal the NFC East from Philadelphia if the Eagles drop the last 2 games. Tony Pollard hasn’t practiced all week and could sit.
This has been one of the trickier games to handicap all year, as the motivations and short week add another layer of complexity to the player props. However, I feel good about the two picks below to go along with a Same Game Parlay that is worth considering at higher odds.
Be sure to check out our full Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans predictions
Dalton Schultz Over 38.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
From one tight end to another….. Schultz has one of the more favorable matchups in a game filled with uncertainty. The Cowboys’ TE gets the 25th-ranked defense vs TE in DVOA, allowing 8 targets for 66 yards per game. Schultz has been adding explosive plays to his resume these last few weeks, logging a 20+ yard reception in 3 of the last 4. It will help that he faces a Titans defense that is 2nd worst in the league to explosive plays vs TEs. They average at least 1 per game and have given up 16 on the season!
I opted for the total yards play vs the longest reception (16.5), as it has had a higher frequency of hitting this season — but the longest reception can be considered, as well, if the yards total gets over 40.5. The Titans have given up this line to opposing TEs an astounding 12 times this season. Tony Pollard could miss this game and that would free up 3 to 5 targets that will give Schultz a better opportunity to hit this number. 1U.
Check out our Cowboys vs Titans Same Game Parlay at +730 odds!
Chigoziem Okonkwo Under 25.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Okonkwo has been a favorite of many player prop handicappers since Week 9 of the NFL season. His receiving yards lines and longest reception lines were picked on by many, as Okonkwo saw an expanded role and was able to generate chunk plays on the ground despite being an unknown for long. Much of that success was with Ryan Tannehill under center, and unfortunately it has not translated with Malik Willis as the signal caller. Okonkwo has only hit this line in 1 of 3 starts with Malik Willis and the solo game came on one catch for 48 years. After going back and watching the tape, the 48-yard gain was a result of 4 broken/missed tackles on behalf of the Kanas City Chiefs; they rank 23rd overall in tackling according to PFF. The Dallas Cowboys rank 5th overall in the same metric. As a far as targets, Willis spread the ball around to 8 different receivers last week in his highest volume of attempts to date, but Okonkwo saw his lowest snap share since Week 12.
From a matchup perspective, the Cowboys aren’t an easy draw. Dallas ranks 8th in DVOA vs TEs, allowing 7.5 targets and 41 YPG. Okonkwo hasn’t topped 3 targets in any game this season that Willis has started and although a negative game script would help his case, I can’t see him executing the explosive plays we have seen in the past that have wowed bettors this season. If you remove Dallas Goedert’s performance last week, the Cowboys have only allowed 5 receptions of 20+ yards more to TEs and none over 40 yards on the season. 1U.
Our expert has their best touchdown scorer bets for Cowboys vs Titans
Cowboys vs Titans Same Game Parlay (+330)
- Cowboys 2H Total Over 12.5 points
- Dalton Schultz Over 38.5 receiving yards
- Ezekiel Elliot anytime TD scorer
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