Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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I know what everyone is thinking: Commanders (+1) vs Bears on primetime is punishment for something we did in a past life. The trick is to set your expectations so low and just be grateful we have football to bet on. I’m oddly optimistic that this game will be interesting on Thursday night. Ron Rivera has essentially called out his QB Carson Wentz in the media and RB Brian Robinson should see an increased workload after making his debut. The Bears have been more competitive than I expected outside of the Green Bay loss. Let’s look at some player props!
Be sure to check out our full Commanders vs Bears predictions.
Curtis Samuel over 4.5 receptions (-109)
Line available on Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This line is considerably low for Curtis Samuel as the books expect this to be a run-dominated, low-scoring affair. I’m reluctant to buy into that premise. The Washington Football club is 9-2 on TNF since 2010 and first-year head coaches are 1-11 straight up on TNF. I’m expecting the Commanders to have success offensively and Samuel is a big part of that. Samuel has the best matchup of any Washington receiving target in nickel CB Kyler Gordon. Gordon has given up an 80% reception rate and 5+ targets in 4/5 games. Also, he’s allowed long receptions of 44, 55, and 52 yards so far this season to go along with 2 TD’s. Samuel has missed this line only once so far and it was off his lowest snap total of year. He still had 7 targets that game. I’d only play this line at 4.5, but shop around for the juice. It’s as high as -125 in some cases. TE Logan Thomas should be out again on a short week, so I’m in for 1 unit.
Justin Fields under 217.5 rushing and passing yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Justin Fields has hit this line in 2 straight games, but those are the only 2 for the season. Personnel-wise, I think Washington matches up well defending against mobile quarterbacks. Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Montez Sweat are all equipped to catch Fields behind the line of scrimmage and Sweat in particular can beat him to the edge should he take off. Sweat is currently ranked the #1 edge defender in the league at run defense according to PFF. On the back end, Safety Kamren Curl is the highest-graded safety in the league according to PFF (#1 in coverage, #4 in run defense). All indications are that we get a heavy dose of David Montgomery (o/u 16.5 rush attempts) and Khalil Herbert has rushing yards posted on some sites. The Commanders faced Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence this season, and both posted their lowest rushing totals all year against this defense.
The Commanders are also allowing the fewest rushing first downs per game on the road this year and if the Bears are forced to become one-dimensional, this could be ugly. I fully understand these are both bad teams, but matchup-wise, Washington has a clear advantage. Have 1 unit on this as well.
TD scorers
Washington and Chicago are both bottom 10 in red-zone scoring defense (TDs only). Bring on the rushing TDs!
Brian Robinson +245
David Montgomery +130
Check out our Commanders vs Bears Same Game Parlay.
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