Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It’s hard to believe we had to wait until Week 13 to get our first Bills vs Patriots matchup. The AFC East showdown takes place in Foxborough, where the Bills are currently -4.5 road favorites. New England will likely be without RB Damien Harris and OL Isaiah Wynn Thursday night. Divisional games will be important for Buffalo as they play the New York Jets (7-4) in Week 14 and Miami Dolphins (8-3) in Week 15; only 1 game separates the 3 teams. New England (6-5) has been tough to peg down this season. They’ve looked dominant at time defensively against Detroit and Indianapolis, but have had head-scratching moments against the Bears and Jets offensively.
I’m curious about what version we get Thursday night. Fortunately for us, we will not get a repeat of the Week 13 2021 Monday Night Football blizzard game we saw last year. Weather is expected to be 43 and clear skies.
Check out our full Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots predictions
Josh Allen over 42.5 rushing yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This line is 44.5 on every other book, so I loved seeing it open at 42.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook. In researching Allen’s rushing totals/attempts, I found a pretty glaring trend staring me right in the face: he’s rushed 8+ times in every game on the road this season. In those 6 road games, he’s hit this number 5 times. As mentioned in the opener, this game matters for Buffalo. A divisional win will help any tie breakers with Miami, should it be necessary.
As far as the matchup, Allen has been active in the run game versus New England for his career. He’s hit this number in 2 straight games vs Belichick and 2/4 in Foxborough for his career. Over the last 2 seasons, Allen has averaged 49 rushing YPG and 7 rush attempts per game in the month of December. The Patriots have not faced many mobile QB’s this season, but the one they have had a lot of success: Lamar Jackson 11-107, Justin Fields 14-82. Even Sam Ehlinger pulled off 5 rushes for 39 yards. 1U and play up to the 44.5.
Don’t miss our Bills vs Patriots Same Game Parlay — we had 5 SGP wins last week!
Hunter Henry over 24.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Patriots will be without Damien Harris this Thursday night and a big workload is expected of Rhamondre Stevenson. If I know this, certainly Buffalo does as well. It will help that they are getting back Tremaine Edmunds back to help stop the run, but I’m thinking this run-first approach will have a different impact on Hunter Henry’s usage. He will likely be on the field more for aid in run support and have opportunities to peel off for big yards in the play action passing game.
Outside of the Week 13 rugby match in 2021, Henry had played 86 and 81% of the snaps against Buffalo last season. In those two games he totaled 10 targets, but only hitting this number in 1/2. Buffalo is allowing 6.8 targets per game and 46.7 yards per game to opposing TEs. They’ve been stingy in yards to opposing TEs (8th fewest), but this line is low enough that I like Henry’s chances if he can convert on 60% of his targets Thursday night (Buffalo allows 5th most targets per game to Opp TEs). 1U
Bills vs Patriots anytime touchdown scorer picks
Josh Allen +200
Dawson Knox +330
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