Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Thursday Night Football gives us 2 teams currently in flux. Both the Ravens and Buccaneers (+1.5) have dropped 2 straight games. Tom Brady opens as a home underdog on primetime, which is something we are certainly not accustomed to. You will hear this stat a lot heading into the game, but it’s worth mentioning: “Tom Brady has never been 2 games under .500 in his entire career.” If Brady loses Thursday night, it will be the first time. That’s something to consider.
The story of the Bucs over these last 3 games has been their collapses defensively in the second half of games. Baltimore has averaged 15.7 second-half points per game on the road this season, which could spell disaster for the reeling Bucs.
Be sure to check out our full Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions
Both teams to score at least 1 touchdown in each half (+168)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
I have struggled to find strong angles on these player props. The lines are getting sharper and if you favor an over, you likely have to make assumptions (which I hate doing). I’d rather go for a play that is backed by some solid data points. The Ravens are averaging 11.3 ppg on the road in the first half, while the Bucs are at 11P ppg at home in the first half. Baltimore is averaging a whopping 15.7 ppg in the 2H on the road, while Tampa Bay is sitting at 10.3 ppg.
Both teams need this win to break a 2-game skid and despite it being the dread TNF matchup we have grown to loathe, these 2 teams are not Colts, Broncos, Commanders, or Bears that we saw in Weeks 5 and 6 that ruined our image of these games. The Ravens are more efficient in the red zone and the Bucs haven’t been as effective in run defense since Akiem Hicks has been sidelined. I love the value, as we are buying low on 2 playoff-caliber clubs on skids. This is 0.5U play for me.
Don’t miss our Ravens vs Buccaneers Same Game Parlay at +950 odds
Tom Brady over 25.5 completions (-106)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Brady has hit this line in 4 of the last 5 games and now his back is up against the wall. The Bucs should have Julio Jones back in the lineup for the first time since Week 4; this would be only the 3rd time all season he will have Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Jones together. It couldn’t come at a better time. The Ravens are a great matchup for Brady and for this play, as they are allowing opposing QBs to complete 67 percent of their throws (23rd overall). That is the season average; over the last 3 years they are allowing 73 percent.
In 2022 the Ravens are giving up 25.6 completions per game, but that includes low volume QBs Daniel Jones (19) and Jacoby Brissett (22). At home Brady has thrown 42, 52 and 52 pass attempts this year. I expect him to get 40+ attempts on Thursday night, which projects him at 27 completions. You can get this line at 24.5 on FanDuel for higher juice (-122), but I’m confident in the 25.5 at -106. This is 1U.
Get our best touchdown scorer bets for Ravens vs Buccaneers
Cade Otton Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Cameron Brate is a scratch this Thursday and rookie TE Cade Otton should get the starting nod. Otton has played 2 games with Brate out of the line up (against Atlanta and Carolina) and in those games he saw 81 percent and 94 percent of snaps. He also blew this line out of the water. Brady loves his tight ends and the Ravens have shown to be susceptible this season. Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst, Daniel Bellinger and David Njoku have all hit this mark against the Ravens. Otton is a candidate to get the first TD of his career Thursday night; if you are looking for a longshot, he’s your guy. 1U, as well.
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Devin Duvernay +170
Chris Godwin+170
Cade Otton +340
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