Wild Card Weekend of the NFL is approaching, so it’s time to look ahead to the opening betting lines, odds and spreads. Our lead betting analyst Jared Smith offers his initial insights into the lines and early betting takeaways. All odds are via the Westgate Superbook.
AFC Wild Card Opening Lines
Dolphins at Bills (-11) | Total: 44
This line will be heavily influenced by the health of Tua Tagovailoa, who was still in concussion protocol as of Sunday. Skylar Thompson played turnover-free against the Jets on Sunday, which is probably a big reason why the Dolphins were able to sneak away with a win. Double-digit underdogs are just 1-7 ATS in the Wild Card round since 2005, and unless Tua returns to the lineup, it’s hard to see this line moving towards Miami.
Ravens at Bengals (-6.5) | Total: 44
Another line that will be heavily impacted by the health of Lamar Jackson, who hasn’t played since Week 13. Even if Jackson plays, it’s fair to question how efficient he will be. If Jackson sits, then the QB duties will fall on Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown. Huntley didn’t play on Sunday with a shoulder injury, which might have just been the Ravens waving the white flag and resting up for this week. Considering the line closed north of 10 on Sunday with Brown under center, we might be looking at another double-digit spread in this game if Jackson and Huntley are down.
Chargers (-1.5) at Jaguars | Total: 46.5
What a bizarre Sunday for the Chargers. Brandon Staley played his starters well into the second half and even got 2 of them hurt. Mike Williams and Joey Bosa both left the game with injuries despite LAC having absolutely nothing to play for. It’s even more puzzling when you consider how injury-prone Williams has been this season and how important he is to the long-term success of the offense. This game will also be played on Saturday, which means the Chargers will be on short rest, making Staley’s decision look even worse. The Chargers are still a slight road favorite, for now, but I can absolutely see that changing at some point next week as the narrative flips against them if Williams and/or Bosa can’t play.
NFC Wild Card Opening Lines
Seahawks at 49ers (-10) | Total: 43
This will be the second double-digit dog of Wild Card Weekend, and we’ve seen this game twice already this season, with the Niners winning and covering both times. Overall the draw shapes up very nicely for San Francisco, as they’ll likely get the Vikings in the divisional round and could even be a road favorite against the Eagles in the NFC Championship game if Philly continues to trend in a negative direction. As stated above, double-digit underdogs are just 1-7 ATS in the Wild Card round since 2005, so it’s hard to make a legit case for Seattle covering here, especially when you consider the Niners’ edge in the trenches. I think the best bet to make this week is in the futures market with San Francisco at anything better than +500 to win the Super Bowl.
Giants at Vikings (-3) | Total: 47.5
The Vikings opened as a 3-point favorite in a game featuring two of the biggest overachieving teams in the NFL this season. Daniel Jones had one of his best games of the season on Christmas Eve against Minnesota, throwing for 334 yards, 7 shy of his season-high, and it took a 61-yard field goal in the closing seconds to seal the game for the Vikings. Both head coaches will be making their playoff debuts, but I think Brian Daboll has a slight edge over Kevin O’Connell. Perhaps teasing the Giants up is the best way to bet it, but I’d rather wait and see where the market moves this week before making a decision on this game.
Cowboys (-3) at Bucs | Total: 44.5
The Bucs have the worst point differential of any team in the postseason at -45, which is a big reason why they opened as a 3-point home underdog against a Cowboys team that has had its own issues down the stretch. Home dogs of 3 points or less are just 4-6-2 ATS in the Wild Card round since 2004, which is not a very definable trend and should not impact any wager here. I think Tampa will be a trendy dog this week, which could push this line lower than a field goal and perhaps create some value on Dallas. The issue with backing the Cowboys is trusting Dak Prescott, who has committed 15 turnover-worthy plays in 11 games this season and has thrown a pick in 7 straight. No play for now, wait for the market response.
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