The early bird gets the worm!
We’re back for our first full season of “Early Birds” after starting this project 4 weeks into last year. As a quick refresher, the goal of this column is to highlight possible overreactions in the market for NFL lines at the reopening stage.
So what’s a “reopening line” you ask? Well, every week the sportsbooks will offer lookahead lines for the following week, meaning you could have bet on Week 2 and beyond before the Week 1 games even took place. These lookahead lines are a crucial measuring stick for sportsbooks and sharp bettors as ratings adjust and evolve for each team throughout the season.
On game day, the entire lookahead market will close as action ensues, only to reopen again later that night or early Monday morning after the dust settles. The first and perhaps most important part of my process each week is comparing these “reopening lines” to the lookahead lines. Analyzing this market successfully can help provide a treasure trove of value by not only determining which way the market could move, but also when is the best time to buy.
It will be the goal of this column to track this movement on a weekly basis and offer an “early market indicator” based on that movement. For example, if the lookahead line for a game was Chiefs -3 with a total of 45, and the reopening line was Chiefs -3.5 with a total of 45.5, the early market indicator on that game would be Chiefs and over. I will also briefly analyze any early bets in either NFL or college football at the end.
NFL Week 2 lookahead lines and how they changed after Week 1
All odds via Superbook Sports
|
Week 2 Game |
Lookahead Line |
Lookahead Total |
Reopening Line |
Reopening Total |
Early Market Indicator |
|
Chargers at Chiefs |
Chiefs -3 |
53.5 |
Chiefs -3.5 |
54 |
Chiefs/Over |
|
Panthers at Giants |
Pickem |
42.5 |
Giants -2.5 |
42.5 |
Giants |
|
Colts at Jaguars |
Colts -4.5 |
45.5 |
Colts -4 |
45.5 |
Jaguars |
|
Dolphins at Ravens |
Ravens -4 |
46 |
Ravens -4 |
45.5 |
Under |
|
Patriots at Steelers |
Patriots -1.5 |
42.5 |
Pickem |
41 |
Steelers/Under |
|
Jets at Browns |
Browns -5.5 |
42 |
Browns -6.5 |
42 |
Browns |
|
Bucs at Saints |
Bucs -3 |
47 |
Bucs -3 |
45.5 |
Under |
|
Commanders at Lions |
Pickem |
44.5 |
Lions -1.5 |
46.5 |
Lions/Over |
|
Falcons at Rams |
Rams -13.5 |
48.5 |
Rams -10.5 |
48 |
Falcons/Under |
|
Seahawks at 49ers |
49ers -9.5 |
43.5 |
49ers -8.5 |
42 |
Seahawks/Under |
|
Cardinals at Raiders |
Raiders -3 |
51 |
Raiders -3.5 |
51.5 |
Raiders/Over |
|
Bengals at Cowboys |
Cowboys -2.5 |
50.5 |
Bengals -7 |
44.5 |
Bengals/Under |
|
Texans at Broncos |
Broncos -10.5 |
43.5 |
Broncos -10.5 |
44 |
Texans/Over |
|
Bears at Packers |
Packers -10 |
45.5 |
Packers -10 |
43 |
Under |
|
Titans at Bills |
Bills -7.5 |
51 |
Bills -9.5 |
49.5 |
Bills/Under |
|
Vikings at Eagles |
Eagles -2.5 |
48 |
Eagles -3 |
49 |
Eagles/Over |
NFL Week 2 betting market moves and predictions
Panthers at Giants: Big move towards Big Blue after their upset win over Tennessee. If Carolina gets to 3, you’ll likely see some sharp buyback towards the Panthers at that key number.
Titans at Bills: This line also jumped 2 points after Buffalo’s impressive win over the Rams on Thursday night, coupled with the Titans’ outright loss as a home favorite. I don’t see that line moving back towards Tennessee, as it’s currently hovering right near that key teaser protection number of 9.
Commanders at Lions: This total will likely touch 47 and could push through after Carson Wentz’s strong performance and the Lions’ ineptitude on defense. It’s also gravitating towards a secondary key number, as almost 4% of games have landed on 47 over the last decade.
College football early bets: Targeting two favorites
Washington -2 over Michigan State
Rankings shmankings. Washington is an unranked team laying points, a classic play-on spot for me in prior seasons. The Huskies’ offense looks rejuvenated with HC Kalen DeBoer running an uptempo style with transfer QB Michael Penix. DeBoer was Penix’s offensive coordinator at Indiana, so both have plenty of experience facing off against Big 10 defenses. Washington enters the game 4th in the country in EPA/play and has a 58% success rate in two games, albeit against sub-par competition (Kent State, Portland State).
Michigan State has also not been tested, cruising past two MAC opponents (WMU, Akron). Nothing about Sparty jumps off the page on either side, and I don’t think Payton Thorne will handle the road environment well in Seattle considering last season his completion percentage dropped from 66.5 at home to 55.4 on the road, and his YPA dipped from 9.4 to 7.7. I definitely see this line getting to 3.
Minnesota -26.5 over Colorado
The Golden Gophers have the 3rd-most efficient offense in the country through 2 games thanks in large part to churning out 604 rushing yards and 5.54 yards per carry. Senior QB Tanner Morgan sports a 77.8 completion percentage and has been very efficient in 2 blowout wins over Western Illinois and New Mexico State. Colorado has looked awful in their first 2 games and are coming off a battering ram game against Air Force in tough conditions, and now they have to face another physical team on the road. I don’t see any reason why this line shouldn’t close at 28 or higher.
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