Opening NFL Week 17 betting lines, odds and spreads in Early Birds with Jared Smith: Texans set to test Jaguars

Week 17 of the NFL season is approaching, so it’s time to look ahead to the opening betting lines, odds and spreads. Our lead betting analyst Jared Smith offers insights into the lines and early betting takeaways for this week’s games.

Buy Low: Titans vs Cowboys

This could also be called a sell-high on Dallas, who went from a 3-point favorite on the lookahead last week to -9.5 at the time of publication, almost a full touchdown move. Part of it revolved around Ryan Tannehill, with Malik Willis now assuming starting QB duties for the rest of the regular season. However both of these teams had polar opposite performances on Saturday. Tennessee has now lost 4 in a row and is in a virtual tie with Jacksonville at the top of the AFC South standings. In reality, this game means nothing to the Titans, as they only have to beat the Jags on the road next week to lock up the division. On the other side, we’ll see how the Cowboys handle their business being forced to travel outdoors with a short week of prep to face a physical Titans offense. I see value with Tennessee at anything north of a touchdown, but I likely won’t be betting this one because of my lack of faith in Willis and the overall volatility we’ve seen on Thursday nights this season.

Buy Low: Eagles vs Saints

The Eagles moved from a 5.5-point favorite on the lookahead last week out to -6.5 at the time of publication despite losing outright in Dallas on Saturday and failing to meet oddsmaker expectations. I think the move is warranted after what we saw from Gardner Minshew, who posted the 3rd-highest EPA+CPOE of any QB last week. Some timely turnovers helped the Cowboys cover late, but I don’t think the moment will be too big for Minshew down the stretch in helping the Eagles secure the top seed. The move towards Philly is also telling considering the Saints won outright as a road underdog in Cleveland, overcoming some of the coldest weather of the season. Temperatures look much warmer in the northeast this week, but I don’t expect Andy Dalton to be comfortable in this game either, facing an Eagles pass rush that leads the NFL in sacks this season by a wide margin. I feel confident this line will touch 7 at some point this week and Philly will likely be a popular teaser and ML parlay option.

Sell High: Jaguars at Texans

Seeing is believing, and the Texans have really shown me something these past 3 weeks. Despite falling behind on the road and facing the relentless assault that is Derrick Henry, Houston found a way to not only force a key turnover, but march right down the field and put the dagger in a Tennessee team that desperately needed a win. Impressive stuff. Now the Texans return home and face the other top team in their division, who have a mini bye after a soggy victory over the Jets last Thursday. Jacksonville’s performance helped push them from a 4.5-point favorite on the lookahead last week out to 5.5 at the time of publication. For some reason, this Texans team is really buying whatever Lovie Smith is selling right now, which is not something that can be quantified on the point spread. It’s fair to ask how much gas Houston has left in the tank after 3 really solid performances in a row, but considering this game doesn’t mean anything to the Jags, whose postseason fate will be decided next week against the Titans, it’s hard to make a strong case for laying the points on the road.

Sell High: Raiders vs 49ers

This could also be a buy-low spot for the Raiders, who went from a 4.5-point underdog on the lookahead last week to 6 at the time of publication, but let’s focus on the 49ers side of the handicap for now. San Francisco has won 8 in a row, and covered all 8 by a fairly wide margin as well, with 4 of those games featuring Brock Purdy as the starter. I think it’s fair to say there’s enough tape out there on Purdy for defenses to start adjusting at what Kyle Shanahan is trying to accomplish. Don’t get me wrong, Purdy has still been uber-efficient and there are no glaring red flags as to why he could regress, but this Raiders team has a knack for playing close games, with 8 straight being decided by one score since their 24-0 shutout loss at the Saints in Week 8. The Niners will likely be a popular teaser and ML parlay option this week with the line hovering around a touchdown. I will likely be patient betting this one, as we might get a better number with Vegas later in the week.

Sell High: Bucs vs Panthers

The Bucs shrunk from a 7.5-point favorite on the lookahead last week to 6.5 at the time of publication after a nail-biting win over the Cardinals on Sunday night. Meanwhile Carolina looked dominant on Saturday, mauling the Lions with 320 rush yards and 7.4 yards per carry. Tampa can win the NFC South with a win in this game, while the Panthers need to win out in order to qualify for the postseason. Obviously Brady has the edge over Sam Darnold in terms of experience and talent around him, but the Bucs seem to do just enough to get the job done, with each of their last 5 wins coming by 5 or fewer points. Considering this line moved through a key number, it’s probably best to wait a bit and see if there’s any buyback on Tampa early in the week. If not, then 6.5 is likely the best number we’ll get with Carolina.

Freefall: Patriots vs Dolphins

Neither of these teams seem interested in qualifying for the playoffs in the AFC. Miami has dropped 4 straight and New England 4 of its last 5, a big reason why this line held steady around Dolphins -2 at the time of publication. It was a tale of two halves for Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday, who failed to score in the second half against a Packers defense ranked in the bottom 10 in overall EPA/play and DVOA this season. Tua’s numbers have taken a major nosedive over the back half of the season, the one-time MVP candidate is dead last in EPA+CPOE among qualifying QBs over the last 4 weeks, throwing just 6 TDs with 5 INTs during that span. I have nothing nice to say about this Patriots team right now except they keep doing a good job getting pressure up front with a tenacious pass rush, and they have the style of defense that can continue to give this streaky Dolphins offense problems. I’d be willing to bet we see this line shrink throughout the week with early action on the home dog, and I wouldn’t be surprised if New England closes as the favorite come Sunday.

Freefall: Seahawks vs Jets

I’ve already played out this scenario about 1,000 times in my head. The Jets’ playoff hopes are hanging in the balance, with Geno Smith delivering the final knockout blow. Well now my nightmare could become a reality this week. For now the market seems to be in a holding pattern, with this game opening a pick ’em on the lookahead last week and staying that way at the time of publication. Both teams failed to meet oddsmaker expectations by more than a score in their last game, however the Jets will get the benefit of a mini-bye after playing last Thursday. That could help Mike White return from his rib injury, which is pivotal if New York wants any chance of generating sustained offense. Zach Wilson’s performance was so bad last week against Jacksonville that it doesn’t even warrant me looking up any stats to confirm, the eye test is all I need. The QB situation is the key here with which way this line moves. At this point I’d make White about a 3-point upgrade over Wilson, and the Jets will absolutely close a favorite if he returns to the starting lineup. I’m proud of Smith and all his accomplishments this season, including his first Pro Bowl selection, but it’s obvious his numbers have plateaued over the last few weeks. I also can’t see him having an easy time against this ferocious Jets defense, which is a top-10 unit in virtually every category this season. Regardless of how good the Jets stop unit is, there’s no way I can even consider betting this game until I get some indication of who will be under center.