Week 13 of the NFL season is pretty much in the books, so it’s time to look ahead to the opening NFL Week 14 betting lines, odds and spreads. Our lead betting analyst Jared Smith and TwinSpires Director of Retail Sports Zachary Lucas offer insights into the lines and early betting takeaways for this week’s games.
Buy Low: Ravens vs Steelers
The market completely flipped on Baltimore after Sunday’s injury to Lamar Jackson. The lookahead last week was Ravens -4 in this game, but it reopened a pick’em on Sunday and has since moved towards the Steelers as a small favorite. John Harbaugh kept his comments about Jackson’s status very vague in his postgame report saying it could be days or weeks until he returns but that the injury was not season-ending.
My guess is Huntley plays this week, which might not be a bad thing considering how much Jackson has struggled the past 3 weeks, grading out as a bottom 5 QB in efficiency. Huntley led a game-winning 91-yard drive in the final minutes against the Broncos on Sunday, going 8-for-8 and scoring the go-ahead touchdown with 28 seconds remaining. He was serviceable in 5 starts last season in relief of an injured Jackson, posting a 1-4 record, but Baltimore was in every one of those games, losing them by a combined 7 points.
Pittsburgh is coming off a pedestrian 19-16 win over the Falcons in a game that could have easily gone in either direction. Considering the nature of this divisional rivalry, anytime the market shifts significantly in one direction, even if it is due to injury, my first instinct is to look to play the other side.
Zach’s prediction: I would buy low on the Ravens. The Steelers are off 2 road wins back-to-back which is never easy to do and the Ravens’ last 3 weeks have looked very average plus the Lamar injury. Watch this be a spot the Ravens run it down their throat.
Sell High: Raiders vs Rams
The Rams were 6.5-point favorites when this line originated in the summer but has since moved almost 2 full touchdowns. The Raiders are now laying almost a touchdown for this Thursday night tilt at SoFi Stadium.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the Raiders are making a second-half push for a Wild Card spot. The last team in the field last season has won 3 straight games thanks to their bell cow Josh Jacobs, a guy who was on the chopping block during training camp. Jacobs has now run for 492 yards during this winning streak with 3 touchdowns and at least 24 carries in all 3 games.
The issue I see here is all 3 of those wins pegged Vegas as either a slight underdog or very slight favorite of less than field goal. Now they are nearly a touchdown favorite on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs, who are vastly underachieving this year and will be without Matthew Stafford for the remainder of the season. The Raiders also have to deal with a short week of prep with this game being played on Thursday night, so we’ll see how Jacobs’ calf holds up after gutting it out this week at less than 100%.
Zach’s prediction: The Raiders are feeling good about themselves these last few weeks but I still feel like they’re fraudulent. If anyone could keep the Rams in a game it’s Las Vegas. The Rams are coming off 6 straight losses but they’ve shown some competence these last few weeks. It’s a huge move from the preseason line even with the injuries. It feels like this should be LV -3.5 or -4.
Free Fall: Texans vs Cowboys
The Cowboys were already installed as a double-digit favorite over the summer in this tussle for Texas, but since then the line has ballooned well past the 2-touchdown mark, getting one last push towards 17 after Dallas obliterated the Colts in primetime.
The only positive thing to come from that beatdown was a new Scorigami. Dallas won 54-19 in the first-ever such scoreline in NFL history, but it was not the first time we’ve seen them create a serious margin of late. The Cowboys have now won by 30+ twice in the last 3 weeks and almost covered a big spread against the Giants on Thanksgiving before a late backdoor cover by New York.
The Texans were remarkably bad against the Browns on Sunday despite somehow holding Deshaun Watson to very pedestrian numbers in his return from suspension. Houston’s offense got going late in the game, just like they did in the 4th quarter against the Dolphins the week prior. Because of how inflated this number has become, it’s fair to think there is some value on the underdog despite how ugly the situation is in Houston at the moment.
Zach’s prediction: The Cowboys off a primetime whooping and play the lowly Texans. How many points is too many? This one feels like a game with Dallas up 14-17 late with the backdoor wide open.
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