Week 12 of the NFL season is approaching, so it’s time to look ahead to the opening NFL Week 12 betting lines, odds and spreads. Our lead betting analyst Jared Smith offers insights into the lines and early betting takeaways for this week’s games.
Buy Low: Commanders vs Falcons
This line originated Commanders -5 over the summer before reopening -3 last week on the lookahead. It didn’t move in either direction after both teams won on Sunday, but I believe there’s a little bit of hidden value unaccounted for with Taylor Heinicke under center. The Commanders are 4-1 since Heinicke took over with their defense leading the way ranked 3rd in EPA/play during that span.
Atlanta’s offense scores almost a full touchdown less on the road than at home this season (26.2 to 20.2 points per game) and its defense has been downright atrocious all season ranked 28th in EPA/play and 30th in schedule adjusted efficiency. The Kyle Pitts knee injury is also something to monitor this week. I know he wasn’t being utilized much with only 25 catches on the season, but defenses still have to account for him. His absence would make the Falcons that much less explosive in the passing game.
Market prediction: Vibes are good in DC right now and I definitely see this line moving off the key number of 3 and towards the Commanders this week, especially if Pitts can’t play.
Sell High: Bengals vs Titans
This line has flipped since originating Titans -1 over the summer, as the Bengals now find themselves as slim road favorites following a physical road win Sunday in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Tennessee comes in rested after a mini-bye following its win at Lambeau Field last Thursday. This game is also a playoff rematch from last season, when Joe Burrow strolled into Nashville and escaped with a 19-16 win that sent Cincinnati to the AFC Championship game.
Titans head coach Mike Vrabel excels in this spot and is 22-12 ATS in his career as an underdog, with 20 of those victories also coming straight up. I have been really impressed with the Titans’ defense this season, as it ranks 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency and 12th in EPA/play — wildly exceeding my expectations. Considering the weapons around Ryan Tannehill and his ankle injury, this has been some of Vrabel’s best coaching work to date. The Joe Mixon concussion could also play a factor this week, so keep an eye on his status.
Market prediction: I can see this line gravitating back towards a pick’em and wouldn’t be shocked if the Titans closed as a small favorite, which would make the Vrabel underdog trend moot — but that’s besides the point. This game will have playoff vibes and is a big revenge spot for Tennessee, which has likely had this one circled on the calendar since last January.
Free Fall: Bears vs Jets
The total is what I’m targeting here, plummeting from a lookahead of 48 last week to 44.5 at reopen on Sunday after 2 disappointing results from both teams. The Jets were particularly dreadful on offense gaining just 2.1 yards per play against the Patriots with Zach Wilson completing just 9 of 22 passes for 77 yards. To make matters worse, after the game there were rumblings from the locker room that New York players were upset by the lack of accountability taken by Wilson following the game for his poor performance.
Things were only moderately better for the Bears, who exceeded expectations in the first half on offense — but Justin Fields tweaked his hamstring in the second half and things unraveled from there. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy didn’t do Fields any favors by calling some designed QB runs in the 4th quarter, a puzzling move considering Fields’ injury status.
Market prediction: With Wilson reeling and Fields dinged up I can see this total continuing to drop below the key number of 44, which is the most landed on total in the NFL over the last 9 seasons.
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