Ricky Dimon
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It’s an Olympic year, and that means we get another huge tennis tournament on the calendar – beyond just the 4 Grand Slams. With the Olympics taking place in Paris, the world’s best players are once again descending on Roland Garros – where they found themselves no more than 2 months ago for the French Open. Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek took care of business at the clay-court major and both are favored to win the gold medal.
Of course, there are a whole host of challengers on both the men’s and women’s sides. Novak Djokovic is still seeking an elusive gold medal, while 2008 Beijing Olympics champion Rafael Nadal is healthy and playing on his favorite surface. Swiatek could be tested by the likes of Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina and Naomi Osaka.
Here are the odds and my picks for the upcoming festivities in Paris.
Olympics men’s tennis gold medal odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz –125
Novak Djokovic +240
Alexander Zverev +750
Rafael Nadal +1200
Casper Ruud +1600
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2500
Alex de Minaur +2900
Daniil Medvedev +2900
3-star value play: Alexander Zverev (+750)
At the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 (technically not 2020 since those Games were postponed by the Covid-19 pandemic), it was Zverev who came away with the gold medal. It would be no surprise if the fourth-ranked German wins back-to-back golds, first on hard courts and now on clay. He has been awesome on the red stuff this season, with a title in Rome before finishing runner-up to Alcaraz at Roland Garros. Zverev is also coming off a runner-up showing in Hamburg. Getting him at +750 is a steal.
2-star value play: Casper Ruud (+1600)
Longshot bets are generally strong plays for the Olympics, especially in the men’s event. This tournament uses the best-of-3 format instead of the Granad Slam best-of-5. Shorter matches by nature are more of a crapshoot; any underdog obviously has a better chance to win 2 sets as opposed to 3 against a heavy favorite. Moreover, players are making a transition from grass to clay – which can throw off anyone’s rhythm. All in all, expect the unexpected in Paris. Ruud may not be the longest of longshots, but at +1200 odds he is well back of the top pack and has great value. The Norwegian is a 2-time French Open finalist and his 2024 clay-court results include a runner-up showing in Monte-Carlo and a title in Barcelona.
1-star value play: Tommy Paul (+14000)
Odds of +14000 for Tommy Paul? Seriously?!?! That’s just disrespectful. Paul has been great this season and is coming off a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon, where he led Alcaraz by a set and a break before losing to the eventual champion. The 13th-ranked American is just as good – if not better – on clay than he is on grass, so you have to like his chances of faring well in Paris. Facing Alcaraz in the quarterfinals would not be ideal, but at least Paul is on the opposite side of the draw from Djokovic, Nadal and Zverev.
Olympics women’s tennis gold medal odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek –175
Coco Gauff +650
Elena Rybakina +900
Mirra Andreeva +1600
Barbora Krejcikova +2200
Naomi Osaka +2200
Jasmine Paolini +2400
Danielle Collins +2500
Qinwen Zheng +2800
Jelena Ostapenko +3000
3-star value play: Iga Swiatek (-175)
Much unlike the case on the men’s side (even though Alcaraz has won 2 slams in a row), there is a clear-cut overwhelming favorite in the women’s tournament. That is mostly due to the court surface. On the WTA Tour these days, the surface generally dictates the outcome. When Swiatek is on clay, she is pretty much unbeatable. When she is on grass or fast hard courts, the top-ranked Pole is vulnerable against bigger, more powerful players. Less than 2 months after lifting her fourth French Open trophy, the 23-year-old is back on her stomping grounds at Roland Garros. She is simply so good that -175 is not too steep of a price.
2-star value play: Jasmine Paolini (+2400)
The most impressive part of Paolini’s breakthrough 2024 campaign is that she has been doing damage on all 3 surfaces. She captured a WTA 1000 title on the hard courts of Dubai in February and finished runner-up at both the French Open (clay) and Wimbledon (grass). Clay has generally been her favorite surface, so it’s amazing that she has played this well even on hard on grass. The bottom line is that the fifth-ranked Italian is in all-around incredible form. Paolini has a very good draw in the much weaker bottom half, so the door is open for her to make nother run on the big stage.
1-star value play: Naomi Osaka (+2200)
Only 1 woman came close to beating Swiatek at Roland Garros earlier this year. In fact, Osaka could not have come any closer. The 4-time Grand Slam champion from Japan had a match point before succumbing 7-6(1), 1-6, 7-5. Although Osaka has not done a whole lot since the French Open, she always has to be considered a threat at the biggest events. After all, she has won both the U.S. Open and Australian Open twice each. On any given day, Osaka has the talent to beat anyone on any surface.
