Caleb Wilfinger
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It’s an Olympic year, and that means we get even more high-level basketball to fill in the void between NBA seasons. So far, this has been a tournament filled with intoxicating basketball and we now get to narrow the field down to the best of the best. But before we can get to the medal rounds, we have a quartet of fascinating games to enjoy on Tuesday as the quarterfinals unfold. In group play, the United States continued to establish itself as the overwhelming favorite in this event, but the likes of Germany and Canada look like very worthy challengers if they were to get to the Gold medal game.
With the quarterfinals getting underway at 5:00 am ET on Tuesday, let’s take a look at the odds and my best bets for each of these 4 men’s basketball matchups at the 2024 Olympic Games.
Greece vs Germany Olympics men’s basketball best bet: Germany -8 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
With Denis Schroder and Franz Wagner at the controls, Germany’s offense has been a nightmare for opposing defenses this tournament. This is a unit that runs beautiful motion offense, often leading to open shots and layups off back cuts. They also excel from the outside, thanks to lethal sharpshooter Andreas Obst, who has 5 made threes on 12 attempts through the first 3 games of this competition. This is a balanced attack that can make life miserable for opposing defenses, as we’ve seen in each of the first three games of this competition. Germany has often taken a lead and never looked back, and we could see a similar script in Tuesday’s contest.
On the other side, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been as good as advertised in this tournament, averaging 27 points, 7.7 rebounds and nearly 4 assists. However, outside of the Greek Freak, I don’t have nearly the same level of praise for the rest of this offense. In fact, Greece has yet to score 80 points in any game this tournament, while putting up some poor offensive efforts in losses to Canada and Spain. And while Greece was able to find its way into the quarterfinals by knocking off Australia 77-71, that victory came with its fair share of questions as well, as the Greeks scored just 24 total points in the second half of that game. That kind of offensive effort won’t cut it against a German side that is firing on all cylinders heading into this contest. I can’t do anything but back Germany to win comfortably once again on Tuesday.
Find out our expert’s USA vs Brazil best bet for today’s huge matchup
Australia vs Serbia men’s basketball best bet: Nikola Jokic over 11.5 rebounds (+100)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s often been said that Nikola Jokic is at his best when he’s impacting the game in ways other than just scoring. Well, the 3-time NBA MVP is going to need to be at his best in all phases of the game if Serbia want to advance past Australia and into the medal rounds. And while I have no doubt that the Joker will put up plenty of points and dish out assists to the likes of Bogdan Bogdanović and the rest of his teammates, my favorite way to bet on Jokic in this spot is to target his rebounding prop in this matchup.
The market hasn’t quite caught up with Jokic’s rebounding number just yet, particularly at this plus-money juice. After all, Jokic just averaged 11 rebounds in group play, including efforts of 13 and 15 rebounds against South Sudan and Puerto Rico, where he was well rested on the bench for a good chunk of those games. It’s safe to assume that Jokic’s minutes will increase a bit in this much-win situation, which also gives me confidence in backing an over for his rebounding prop. There’s also the matter of who Jokic will match up with in the post, as he’ll likely be seeing Jock Landale, a player he’ll be plenty familiar with from Landale’s time with the Phoenix Suns and Houston Rockets in recent years. Unless Australia puts in a tournament-best shooting performance in this one, I can’t see Jokic staying under this number. Let’s back the MVP to dominate on the glass.
Canada vs France men’s basketball best bet: Under 163.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is a matchup that is fascinating on paper, as both Canada and France were medal favorites prior to the start of this tournament. However, while Canada has looked every bit the part of a threat to the United States, the same can’t be said of this underwhelming France team. The French needed a miracle to knock off Japan in overtime, or they might not even have qualified for this quarterfinal stage. This poor offensive showing has followed a mediocre performance in last year’s FIBA World Cup — an event where Canada held France to 65 points to effectively eliminate them — which leads me to think that this France offense needs a recalibration before the next major international tournament.
While France’s offense has been a disappointment, Canada has shone brightest on the defensive end, which leads me to an under in this contest. The Canadians are stout on the perimeter, which should give Evan Fournier and the other French guards fits throughout this game. France has also had a difficult time incorporating Victory Wembanyama into its offensive sets, often neglecting or even ignoring the 7’4″ all-world superstar. However, while Wembanyama hasn’t impacted most of these games enough offensively, he continues to be a singular force of nature on the defensive end and should dominate the paint along with fellow defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert. This one has all the makings of a defensive slugfest, so let’s back the under.
USA vs Brazil men’s basketball best bet: Steph Curry over 2.5 threes (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
As we’ve already seen throughout group stage play, this tournament is all about matchups. As it just so happens, this is a terrific matchup for the United States on offense, particularly on the perimeter. There’s no doubt that this Brazil team should have earned all of our respect with its showing this tournament thus far. However, I see that run coming to an end in the quarterfinals, as the United States just presents a massive matchup nightmare for this Brazil defense.
It hasn’t been talked about too much, but Steph Curry has not exactly been having a tournament to remember to this point. However, while the greatest shooter in NBA history hasn’t shot the three-ball up to his usual lofty standards, it’s imperative to note that Curry is still getting plenty of volume and attempts from beyond the arc in these Olympic games. It helps that this Brazil defense has been continuously torched from 3-point range in this tournament, as nearly 52% of its opponents shots have come from beyond the arc. Curry did clear this number once already in these games — a similar situation against an overmatched Serbian side on the perimeter — and I see a similar game script here in a situation where he should get plenty of looks. Team USA should raise their level in a “win or go home” setting, and that calls for a much stronger effort from Curry in this contest.
