Caleb Wilfinger
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It’s an Olympic year, and that means we get even more high-level basketball to fill in the void between NBA seasons, along with the extended WNBA midseason break. Both the men’s and women’s teams from the United States are heavy favorites to take home the gold medal, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value in other markets further down the odds board. The action promises to be electric across both competitions, with games beginning on Saturday, July 27 and concluding with the Gold Medal and Bronze Medal games on August 10 and 11 respectively. Will team USA take home gold in both tournaments, or will we seen a massive upset on the world’s biggest stage?
Here are the odds and my predictions for the upcoming festivities in Paris.
Olympics men’s basketball gold medal odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
USA –400
Canada +1000
France +1500
Serbia +1600
Germany +2200
Greece +3200
Australia +4000
Spain +7500
South Sudan +15000
Puerto Rico +25000
Best Bet: France to win a medal (+105)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.
I firmly believe that the United States will bring home the gold medal in this tournament, especially considering that the U.S. avoided the group of death early on. However, my best bet will be targeting France to take home a medal at its home Olympics. This is one of the more mispriced numbers in the market in my estimation, especially when you factor in the group that France will be going through in the early stages of this tournament. There’s also the matter of personnel and the style of play that we’ll see from the French. Due to the unique FIBA basketball rules that don’t implement a defensive 3-second penalty, France will be able to stick Rudy Gobert in the paint and have the best rim protection in the tournament. Then, they’ll be able to use all-world phenom Victor Wembanyama as a roamer to stifle opposing offenses on the perimeter. The likes of Evan Fournier and Nicolas Batum provide a steady hand in the backcourt for this France team as well, which gives me confidence in this group to make a deep run.
The French are significant favorites to win Group B, a section that includes Germany, Brazil and Japan, and they also have the second-shortest odds to advance to the knockout stages behind the U.S. Considering that they’ll likely be favored in the quarterfinals against a lower-seeded team, it’s hard not to like France’s chances to make the semifinals. From there, we just need France to either make the gold medal game, or we still get a second chance at a medal with a bronze medal game if the French lose in the semifinals. It’s a great price on a proven nation at these games over the years, so I’ll back France to win a medal as my best bet.
Olympics women’s basketball gold medal odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
USA –1800
France +2200
Australia +2900
Spain +3100
Belgium +3400
Japan +5000
China +6000
Canada +11000
Germany +12000
Serbia +16000
Best Bet: A’Ja Wilson to lead Team USA in scoring (+110)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.
Throughout the course of women’s basketball history at the Olympics, the United States has often dominated the proceedings. That’s exactly why we’re seeing this line for Team USA to win gold priced at a ridiculous -1800 number. Therefore, we’ll attack a way to back the U.S. in a different market, focusing on the best player in the world at the moment, A’Ja Wilson. The 2-time WNBA MVP and Finals MVP has been on a different level during this regular season, averaging 27 points and 12 rebounds while playing the most minutes of her career thus far. She’ll be looking for her second gold medal in Paris and as the leader of this team, I expect Wilson to get the ball early and often in these international contests. The only other real threat to score the most points for the U.S. in this competition is Breanna Stewart, but the New York Liberty forward has seen her scoring go down this season while her playmaking has never been stronger. Wilson should dominate once again at these Olympic games, so let’s keep it simple with my best bet.
