Sam Avellone
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There was turbulence in Brent Venables’ first season in Norman, as the Sooners finished 6-7 and under .500 for the first time since 1998. They lost 7 of their final 10 games and 5 of those losses by one score, but there is some optimism surrounding the program heading into the 2023 season. Venables hit the transfer portal hard and landed a top 5 recruiting class in an attempt to build the roster and get the Sooners back to their winning ways.
Oklahoma Sooners 2023 College Football Season Odds
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oklahoma National Championship Odds
The Sooners are 60/1 to win the national title.
Oklahoma Sooners Big 12 Championship Odds
Oklahoma is the second favorite to win the Big 12 at +350.
Oklahoma Sooners Odds to Reach the College Football Playoff
The Sooners are +650 to make the College Football Playoff.
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Oklahoma Sooners 2022 Season Recap
The Sooners had quite an unlucky season when considering their close losses in tandem with quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s head injury against TCU, causing him to miss the Texas game. Despite the horrific hit, Gabriel missed just 1 game and led the Sooners to more than 32 points per game in the other 12. He passed for 3,168 yards and 25 touchdowns with just 6 interceptions and added another 315 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. His offensive line was solid, ranking in the top 25 in multiple advanced metrics including average line yards, power success rate and stuff rate – which running back Eric Gray took advantage of as well. Gray rushed for 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns while Jovantae Barnes added 519 yards and 5 touchdowns behind him. Gabriel’s top target was now-Denver Bronco Marvin Mims, who caught 54 passes for 1,082 yards and 6 touchdowns. Tight end Brayden Willis added 514 yards and 7 touchdowns while Jalil Farooq had 466 yards and 5 touchdowns of his own.
Venables is known for his defensive prowess because of all of the dominant Clemson defenses he coordinated before taking this job, but that success did not carry over to Norman last season. The Sooners gave up exactly 30 points per game against FBS opponents, which ranked 90th out of 131 teams. Furthermore, Oklahoma was outside the top 75 in defensive drive efficiency, opposing touchdown rate, and opposing turnover rate while allowing more than 40 points in 4 straight games to Kansas State, TCU, Texas, and Kansas. The linebacker core of Danny Stuatsman, David Ugwoegbu and DaShaun White each accumulated more than 90 tackles and combined for 24 tackles for loss, but the Sooners averaged just 2.2 sacks per game – which was outside the top 60. They simply did not create enough pressure on the quarterback and the secondary was not able to make up for it.
Oklahoma Sooners 2023 College Football Season Outlook
Fortunately, Gabriel returns to be the starting quarterback in Norman, but loses a handful of talented pieces around him in Mims, Gray, Willis and 3 of his best offensive linemen. Venables brought in a few transfers and talented freshmen to fill in the voids left by those who departed for the NFL, but overall, I question this offense’s ceiling. The remaining pieces at wide receiver and running back such as Farooq, Drake Stoops and Barnes have not shown consistent game-breaking ability at the college level like Mims and Gray, and the offensive line does not have anyone who graded inside the top 80 among Power 5 linemen. Running back Gavin Sawchuk showed some promise but played in just 2 games and is unproven in the Big 12. Similarly, there are multiple question marks on the defensive side of the ball. The Sooners need to be much more physical this year, especially on the front 7, and produce more sacks after ranking outside the top 60 with just 28 in 2022. Furthermore, some new faces will have to step up in the secondary such as freshmen Jasiah Wagoner and Peyton Bowen, as Oklahoma has just 1 returning defensive back that ranks in the top 100 in pass coverage.
The Sooners start the year with consecutive home games against Arkansas State and SMU before traveling to Tulsa and Cincinnati in back-to-back weeks. Oklahoma then hosts Iowa State before traveling to Dallas for its Red River Showdown against Texas at the Cotton Bowl. Following a bye week, Oklahoma hosts UCF before another back-to-back road trip – this time to Kansas and Oklahoma State. Finally, The Sooners will welcome West Virginia in Week 10 before traveling to BYU in Week 11 and ending the season at home against TCU.
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Best Bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 conference wins (+110)
Without Gray, Mims, and their 3 best pass-blocking offensive lineman, Gabriel and the Sooners could struggle to keep up with some of the high-scoring offenses in the conference – especially if their defense does not improve. Overall, I project a drop-off in scoring this season, which is going to be an issue against Texas, UCF, Kansas and TCU. Beating the Longhorns will be a tough task, and I am not convinced the Sooners have enough to beat Kansas and TCU if those offenses produce at a high level. Games against Cincinnati, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and BYU figure to be Oklahoma wins, but a slip-up in any of them would be costly for them and beneficial to the under.
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