Sam Avellone
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The Ohio State Buckeyes lost one of college football’s best quarterbacks to the NFL after a narrow 1-point loss to Georgia in the national semifinals, but expectations remain high in Columbus, Ohio heading into the 2023 season. Coach Ryan Day has shown a consistent ability to reload his roster rather than rebuild, and the Buckeyes have an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions to help the offense adjust to life after CJ Stroud. On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles enters his second season with the program and the Buckeyes should see an uptick in defensive production because of it.
Ohio State Buckeyes 2023 College Football Season Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ohio State National Championship Odds
The Buckeyes are +700 to win the 2023 College Football Playoff. They are 1 of just 4 teams with odds shorter than 10/1.
Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten Championship Odds
Ohio State is the current favorite to win the conference at +165.
Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten East Odds
The Buckeyes are the favorites to win the East Division with odds of +115.
Ohio State Buckeyes Odds to Reach the College Football Playoff
Similar to their national title odds, the Buckeyes are one of the favorites to make the College Football Playoff. They are second on the oddsboard at +115, just behind Georgia.
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Ohio State Buckeyes 2022 Season Recap
The 2022 season ended in disappointing fashion for the Buckeye faithful following the program’s largest loss to Michigan in over 30 years and a disappointing 4th quarter in the national semifinal. Ohio State finished the season with back-to-back losses for the first time in over a decade, but despite losses to 2 of the top 5 teams in the country to round out the year, the Buckeyes were still considered one of the nation’s best with an 11-2 overall record. They scored 44.2 points per game against FBS opponents, which ranked 2nd just behind Tennessee, and PFF graded them the best offense in the country in terms of overall performance.
CJ Stroud was a big reason for Ohio State’s offensive success, throwing for 3,688 yards, 41 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while carving up the highly-touted Georgia defense in the semifinal along the way. He utilized an elite group of skill position players, most of which return this season, and was operating behind an offensive line that ranked in the top 30 in both pass and run blocking.
There was year-over-year development on the defense in Knowles’ first season in Columbus. The Buckeyes improved from 22.8 points allowed per game to 21 and jumped from 51st to 6th in PFF’s overall defense metric after holding all but 2 regular season opponents to 30 points or less. Furthermore, Ohio State finished in the top 15 in advanced opponent-adjusted defensive metrics like opposing drive efficiency, points per drive, and touchdown rate. Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg led the defense with 120 tackles, 12 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks while J.T. Tuimoloau, Zach Harrison, Jack Sawyer, Javontae Jean-Baptiste and Michael Hall Jr. each recorded more than 6 tackles for loss and 3 sacks.
Ohio State Buckeyes 2023 College Football Season Outlook
The Buckeyes will have to replace a lot more than just Stroud this season, as wide receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba, both starting offensive tackles, center Luke Wypler, edge rusher Zach Harrison and safety Ronnie Hickman were all drafted too. Adjusting to a new quarterback is always difficult, but it can be exponentially more difficult when the offensive line is incorporating 3 new pieces. For what it is worth, Stroud was pressured on just 23.4% of his dropbacks last season – which was one of the lowest rates at the power conference level. Junior Kyle McCord and redshirt freshman Devin Brown are battling for the starting quarterback job and the winner will operate an offense that deploys an elite group of skill position players yet again.
Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. returns for what will likely be his final season in Columbus after accumulating 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns and will be accompanied by Emeka Egbuka – who had 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns of his own. Julian Fleming will operate the slot again after amassing over 500 yards and 6 touchdowns, and the Buckeyes will be able to lean on an electric pair of running backs in Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson that combined for almost 1,400 total rushing yards and 20 touchdowns last season. There will be some growing pains and potentially some offensive regression, but the Buckeyes are still as good of an offense as any in the country given their deep wide receiver and running back rooms.
Ohio State’s defense should continue to improve under Knowles, especially when considering the fact the Buckeyes return a vast majority of their key pieces on that side of the ball. There is a good bit of depth on the defensive line, which will be led by Tuimoloau and Hall after they combined for 18 tackles for loss and 8 sacks last season. Behind them is an experienced linebacker core in Eichenberg, Sawyer and Steele Chambers that has the potential to be one of the conference’s best if it can get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Each of them ranked outside the top 50 in pass-rush among power conference linebackers last season according to PFF, but another offseason spent training under Knowles should push this group to play at an even higher level this year.
The secondary was a bit of a concern, so Day addressed its depth in the transfer portal by bringing in Ja’Had Carter from Syracuse, Lorenzo Styles Jr. from Notre Dame and Davison Igbinosun from Ole Miss. Denzel Burke, Lathan Ransom, Josh Proctor and Cameron Martinez all return for expanded roles after they each played in at least 11 games last year.
The schedule starts with 3 games against Indiana, Youngstown State and Western Kentucky, which are all games Ohio State is expected to win convincingly. However, it will get harder for the Buckeyes in Week 4 when they travel to South Bend for a battle against Notre Dame. Following a bye week, the Buckeyes host Maryland and then travel to Purdue. Then the Buckeyes host Penn State and travel to Wisconsin to face an improved Badger team in consecutive weeks and what is likely the most difficult stretch of the schedule. Following the game in Wisconsin, Ohio State will travel to Rutgers for another road game before heading home for consecutive games against Michigan State and Minnesota in preparation of the highly-anticipated season finale against Michigan.
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Best Bet: Ohio State Buckeyes under 10.5 regular season wins (+104)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Ohio State’s talent at wide receiver and running back is far superior to most programs across the nation, and its returning defensive production under a highly-regarded coordinator is promising, but the uncertainty at quarterback and replacing 3 starters across the offensive line will be a challenge to say the least. The schedule is not exactly easy for the Buckeyes either, as they have to travel to South Bend, Madison and Ann Arbor in addition to hosting Penn State. I can confidently mark them down for wins in their other 8 games, but I have a hard time seeing 3 wins against 4 of the aforementioned teams given the current unknowns. I project Ohio State to win 10 games, so a bet on under 10.5 at plus-odds would be my recommended wager on the Buckeyes this season.
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