Filip Tomic
Sunday’s early tipoff will see the two top teams in the Western Conference battle it out as the Denver Nuggets take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. My Same Game Parlay includes the 2 MVP candidates.
Be sure to also visit our NBA Picks page for predictions on Sunday’s slate, but now let’s get into my Nuggets vs Thunder SGP!
Nuggets +7.5 (-110)
Nikola Jokic 2+ made threes (-114)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ made threes (-194)
Same Game Parlay odds: +364
Nuggets +7.5 (-110)
Following a historic game by Nikola Jokic, who became the first player in NBA history to trop a 30-20-20 stat line, you just have to go with the Nuggets in Sunday’s game. The early tipoff against the Thunder will be a huge test for them, but it’ll also show us if this team is capable of hanging with the best team in the West. Aaron Gordon finally returned from injury, come playoff time this is the lineup head coach Michael Malone will likely have at his disposal. Chet Holmgren will be an interesting matchup with Jokic down low, something tells me we could be in for another spectacular performance by the Joker. He is averaging a triple-double in the last 5 meetings and is currently on a streak of back-to-back games with one.
Denver won the most recent meeting between the 2 teams and it is also 4-1 SU in the last 5 games at Oklahoma City. OKC’s calling card will be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander; he has been arguably the most consistent offensive player in the NBA this season and that’s pretty much what his MVP case is built around. That and the fact that OKC has the best record in the conference at 52-12. Despite the level of dominance presented by them lately, this line is a tad too big for me. Denver has won 3 of 4 games and at 19-13 it is among the better road teams in the NBA. The last time the 2 teams played the game was decided by just 2 points, and that type of scenario favors backing the road team.
Nikola Jokic 2+ made threes (-114)
Is there anything that the Joker cannot do? Just a game after posting one of the most historic and unique stat lines in the history of the NBA, he heads to OKC for a direct matchup with the MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. A win would be very beneficial to Jokic’s case and there’s no doubt his imprint will be all over this game. His 3-point shooting has gone down a bit efficiency wise in February, but he has successfully bounced back in March averaging 41.7% from downtown. Granted, it is a small sample size, but it is always good to see numbers like that. The three-ball has been consistent against the Thunder over the last 5 meetings with the Joker knocking down 45.5% of his attempts. OKC’s defensive gameplan will likely center around pushing Jokic away from the basket, as Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein aren’t exactly the type of players that can get you stops down low. That shouldn’t bother the Joker too much; he is more than comfortable stepping outside the arc.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ made threes (-194)
Another player who isn’t afraid of letting it fly from deep is certainly Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If there was one knock on his offensive game prior to this season, it was the 3-point shooting. That’s no longer the case though, SGA has proven to be elite with the long ball. He’s on quite the run over the past 9 games knocking down 51.1% of his attempts from distance. Only once in his last 7 games he’s failed to make a pair, while if we expand our search to the last 20 games the success rate is at 70%. Those type of numbers are consistent enough to warrant us backing him here. Denver’s defense has struggled a bit guarding the 3-ball lately, their last 3 opponents have shot 41.4% from downtown. SGA has drained a pair of threes in 3 of the last 4 meetings, there’s no doubt in my mind he will add to that on Sunday.
