Ricky Dimon
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The 2023 US Open comes to a close on Sunday. It has been profitable tournament for me on the betting front – especially over the past week – and it can get even better when the men’s singles final is contested between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev. My 3-star best outright bet before the fortnight began was on Medvedev to win the title at +1000, so that play is alive and well. But let’s go for even more with a few picks for Djokovic vs Medvedev.
Who will lift the trophy at the season’s fourth and final Grand Slam? Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Day 14.
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Daniil Medvedev +4.5 games over Novak Djokovic (-115 at DraftKings)
This matchup should be priced much closer to a toss-up. Daniil Medvedev is a heavy underdog because Novak Djokovic is Novak Djokovic — not because of actual facts and statistics. Both the numbers and the eye test suggest that Medvedev is at least on par if not even superior to Djokovic on hard courts right now. Sure, on clay or grass this might not be competitive, but at the U.S. Open it’s a very winnable match for the Russian. He is a former champion of this tournament and that triumph came against none other than Djokovic via a 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 beatdown in 2021. Medvedev also finished runner-up in New York 4 years ago, losing to Rafael Nadal in a 5-set thriller. As usual, the world #3 is playing nothing short of amazing tennis at the U.S. Open. He was pretty much dominant through 5 rounds and then upset world #3 Carlos Alcaraz in 4 sets with an amazing performance on Friday night.
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Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev over 38.5 games (-118 at FanDuel)
For many of the reasons mentioned above, I have to think this match will go over 38.5 games. Medvedev is playing too well and is too good at this particular event to get blown out. In 2021, Djokovic was dealing with the pressure of going for the calendar-year Grand Slam — and he did not deal with it well. There is no such scenario this time around, as the 36-year-old Serb won the Australian Open and French Open but lost to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final. On paper this matchup has been extremely competitive in recent years. In their last 11 encounters dating back to the spring of 2019, Djokovic has won 6 and Medvedev has won 5.
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev over 17.5 total aces (-115)
This obviously correlates nicely with the above picks, as the longer the match goes the more aces will be struck. Heck, even a straight-sets result would still have a good chance of seeing the ace count go over, and a 4-setter or 5-setter would be a borderline lock to cash this prop. In the 2021 U.S. Open title match, Djokovic (6) and Mededev (16) combined for 22 aces even though it was a very quick contest. So far this fortnight Medvedev is averaging 10 aces per match and Djokovic is averaging 7.8 — despite the fact they have played almost exclusively 3-setters. Moreover, the roof will likely be closed for the final because rain is in the forecast. A closed roof always favors the servers.
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