Sam Avellone
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Wake Forest transfer quarterback Sam Hartman is now in South Bend, giving the Fighting Irish arguably their best quarterback since Brady Quinn in 2006. Hartman passed for 7,929 yards, 77 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions over the last 2 seasons in Winston-Salem and will be relied upon by new coordinator Gerard Parker and the rest of the offense to keep that level of production this season.
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2023 College Football Season Odds
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Notre Dame National Championship Odds
The Fighting Irish are 30/1 to win the national title.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds to Reach the College Football Playoff
Notre Dame is +750 to be 1 of the 4 teams in the playoff. Their path to the playoff is a bit harder than most due to not having a conference championship game to play in.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2022 Season Recap
The Fighting Irish started the season with 2 losses. One of them was on the road at Ohio State, but the other was an unexpected home loss to Marshall. The Irish lost to Stanford at home too, which was head-scratching considering the Cardinal won just 3 games total. However, Notre Dame had wins over BYU, Syracuse and Clemson, all of whom were top 20 teams at the time they played the Irish.
Notre Dame finished in the top 35 in scoring last season, recording 31.8 points per game against FBS opponents. The Irish ranked 41st in drive efficiency, 29th in points per drive, and 33rd in touchdown rate, proving to be one of the top 40 most efficient offenses in the country. Drew Pyne was the top quarterback, as he threw for 2,021 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions with a top 30 rating in big time throw percentage according to PFF. Pyne played behind an above average offensive line that finished 11th in average line yards, 29th in opportunity rate, and 2nd in stuff rate, which the running back room took advantage of as well. Audric Estimé gained 1,055 total yards and scored 12 total touchdowns while Logan Diggs added 1,033 total yards and 6 total touchdowns. Tight end Michael Mayer led the team in receiving with 809 yards and 9 touchdowns, and the production was spread pretty evenly behind him among Jayden Thomas, Lorenzo Styles Jr. and Braden Lenzy.
The Irish struggled to force turnovers, ending the season ranked 76th in turnover rate and 82nd in turnover margin. However, they allowed more than 35 points just twice and were a top 35 defense in overall defensive efficiency as well as drive efficiency, points per drive, and touchdown rate. They averaged 23 points allowed per game to FBS opponents and ranked 15th in sacks thanks to defensive lineman Isaiah Foskey’s production. He accumulated 11 sacks to go along with 14 tackles for loss. Linebacker JD Bertrand led the team with 82 tackles in addition to 8.5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks, while Benjamin Morrison led the secondary with 6 interceptions and 4 passes defended.
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2023 College Football Season Outlook
Pyne was not bad by any means, but Hartman should inject a different element into this offense. The biggest test will be replacing offensive coordinator Tommy Rees in addition to Mayer’s pass-catching reliability – as he now plays for the Las Vegas Raiders. Mitchell Evans figures to start at tight end, but he caught just 3 passes in 8 games last season, and the wide receiver core presents a similar amount of inexperience aside from Thomas. The Irish will be without some running back depth as well given the fact that Diggs transferred to LSU and Chris Tyree is moving to the slot, but Estimé should be just fine as a workhorse back behind this offensive line. Joe Alt is likely a future first round pick at left tackle and was the second best rated offensive lineman among power conference and independents last season. Right tackle Blake Fisher and center Zeke Correll return after each playing more than 800 snaps in 2022, giving the Irish stability on the ends and in the middle. However, the guard position will be a question mark with Andrew Kristofic coming off injury, and the line’s overall depth is young and inexperienced at the college level.
The defense will have a bit more returning production than the offense in 2023, as 4 of Notre Dame’s 5 leading tacklers will be back in South Bend. The linebacker position should be very good with the highly experienced duo of Bertrand and Jack Kiser leading the way, but the defensive line will miss Foskey’s production. Coach Marcus Freeman brought in Javontae Jean-Baptiste from Ohio State to help smooth over the void Foskey left, but Jordan Botelho, Rylie Mills, and Howard Cross III will have to produce more consistently if the Irish want to beat some of the high-powered offenses on their schedule. Fortunately for Notre Dame, its secondary should be solid with Morrison returning for his true sophomore season to play alongside key returning contributors Cam Hart, DJ Brown and Xavier Watts in addition to Oklahoma State graduate transfer Thomas Harper.
Notre Dame opens the season with a Week 0 matchup against Navy and a Week 1 matchup with Tennessee State. The Irish then travel to Raleigh to face North Carolina State in Week 3 before welcoming Central Michigan to South Bend in Week 4. Notre Dame’s schedule gets more difficult starting in Week 5 when it welcomes the Buckeyes before traveling to Duke and Louisville in consecutive weeks. The Irish then welcome the USC Trojans to campus in Week 8 before their first bye of the season in Week 9. Notre Dame welcomes Pitt in Week 10 and travels to Clemson in Week 11 before another week off due to their Week 0 game. Finally, the Irish finish the season hosting Hartman’s former Demon Deacons in Week 11 and traveling to Stanford in Week 12.
Best Bet: Notre Dame Under 8.5 regular season wins (+115)
The addition of Hartman is fantastic for the offense, but there is a lot of uncertainty at wide receiver and tight end, which is not a good problem to have with offenses such as Ohio State, USC, and Clemson on the schedule. The defense should be better than average, but the line leaves a bit to be desired – which is another problem that is not good to have against the 3 aforementioned offenses. The Buckeyes, Trojans, and Tigers all have elite rushing attacks that the Irish might find difficult to stop without their 3 top run-stopping defensive linemen from last season.
Furthermore, road contests at North Carolina State as well as at Duke and Louisville in consecutive weeks are not easy tests either, as those are 3 programs with great coaches – 2 of which are familiar with Hartman’s abilities as a passer from his time at Wake Forest. In all, I see value on the under at plus-money because I am not confident Notre Dame will be able to beat Ohio State, USC, or Clemson given its lack of proven playmakers outside of Hartman and Estimé, and expect the Irish to lose at least 1 of the road games against North Carolina State, Duke, or Louisville.
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