Ricky Dimon
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The last tournament of the tennis season is upon us. It’s the Nitto ATP Finals – the prestigious year-end championship in which only the top 8 players in the world are invited to participate.
The 2023 festivities will be held on an indoor hard court in Turin, Italy following a run of more than a decade in London, England. Starting on Sunday, this high-stakes event (in terms of both ranking points and prize money) features Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev and Holger Rune.
Here are the odds and my best bets to win the Nitto ATP Finals.
Nitto ATP Finals odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic +130
Carlos Alcaraz +430
Jannik Sinner +650
Daniil Medvedev +650
Andrey Rublev +1400
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1400
Alexander Zverev +2000
Holger Rune +2200
3-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+650)
This event sets up extremely well for Sinner. First, he has home-court advantage in Italy. Second, his draw (in a round-robin group with Djokovic, Tsitsipas and Rune) is a pretty good one. Obviously landing in the same group as Djokovic decreases anyone’s chances of qualifying for the semifinals (2 from each group advance), but it actually could be favorable in terms of title hopes. After all, nobody in the same group can face each other in the semis (the winner of one group faces the runner-up of the other, thus a Djokovic-Sinner semi is impossible). Perhaps most important is the fact that Sinner is simply playing awesome tennis these days. The 22-year-old has soared to #4 in the world and his fall swing is already highlighted by titles in Beijing and Vienna.
2-star value play: Andrey Rublev (+1400)
I don’t see much value on Djokovic at close to even money and there certainly isn’t any point in betting on Alcaraz as the second favorite given his lackluster current form. As such, I’ll turn my attention to relative longshots for the last 2 plays. Rublev is well worth a sprinkle, as he comes in at #5 in the rankings at the end of an awesome year. Although the Russian still has never made it past the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam, he has announced himself on some big stages this season with his first Masters 1000 title in Monte-Carlo followed by a runner-up performance at the Shanghai Masters 1000. Rublev’s 3 most recent results are the final in Shanghai, the semifinals in Vienna (lost to Sinner 7-5, 7-6) and the semis in Paris (lost to Djokovic 5-7, 7-6, 7-5).
1-star value play: Alexander Zverev (+2000)
Zverev absolutely loves this tournament. He has already won it twice in his career and just might be in line for a third triumph. The German missed the entire second half of the 2022 campaign because if an ankle injury but he is back in a big way this season. Zverev has resurfaced at #8 in the rankings and his fall swing already includes 1 title in Chengdu, China. The 26-year-old has cooled off a bit in recent weeks, but the good news is that it leaves him well rested to make a final push in Turin. Zverev’s current form combined with his history of success at the Nitto ATP Finals make him an outstanding play at +2000.
