Ricky Dimon
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At long last, the tennis season is coming to an end (it is the sport with the shortest annual offseason, which is obviously music to the ears of bettors). It finally concludes with the Nitto ATP Finals, in which only the top 8 men in the world rankings participate. This year’s field features Rafael Nadal, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Casper Ruud, Daniil Medvedev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Andrey Rublev, Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz. World #1 Carlos Alcaraz is sidelined by an oblique injury, so the year-end top ranking could be stolen from him by either Nadal or Tsitsipas. Both Nadal and Tsitsipas must capture the title to accomplish that feat, and Tsitsipas also has to go undefeated in round-robin competition.
With the year-end championship festivities getting underway on Sunday in Turin, Italy, it’s time to take a look at the best bets to be made.
Nitto ATP Finals odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic +150
Daniil Medvedev +440
Felix Auger-Aliassime +600
Rafael Nadal +800
Stefanos Tsitsipas +900
Taylor Fritz +1400
Casper Ruud +1400
Andrey Rublev +1800
3-star value play: Novak Djokovic (+150)
What’s not to like about Djokovic’s chances? First, you know he is going to be extremely motivated. After all, he has not won this tournament since 2015 and he also needs all the ranking points he can get going into 2022 as the current #8 player in the world (he would be higher but missed out on 2,000 ranking points at Wimbledon). Second, Djokovic is in typically dominant form right now. The 35-year-old Serb has reached 3 finals in a row this fall, triumphing in Tel Aviv and Astana before finishing runner-up at the Paris Masters. I would have liked to get even longer odds on this play, but anything well into plus money on Djokovic has good value.
2-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+440)
Medvedev was a +350 winner for me a couple of weeks ago in Vienna, so I’m staying on the bandwagon. The world #5 actually hasn’t been winning a ton in recent months, but that might actually be a good thing since he is well-rested. Keep in mind that he reached 7 finals in a row late in 2019 and then completely flamed out at the Nitto ATP Finals. In 2020 he was more rested and captured the title. Medvedev has always excelled on hard courts – including indoors – so he has a real shot at lifting this trophy for the second time.
1-star value play: Felix Auger-Aliassime (+600)
Auger-Aliassime has quite simply been the hottest player on tour during the fall swing. The sixth-ranked Canadian was my 3-star best bet at +650 to win the Basel title last month, which is exactly what he did. That came during a stretch in which Auger-Aliassime won back-to-back events (also Florence and Antwerp). The 22-year-old is also coming off a semifinal performance in Paris. He is set up for more success in Turin, finding himself in by far the weaker round-robin group with Nadal, Ruud and Fritz. Auger-Aliassime should have little trouble qualifying for the semifinals, at which point he could be off to the races on his way to the trophy.
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