Ryan Hodges
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The Golden Knights have made a lot of people look silly who had the Stars bouncing back from a loss to get on the board of the series. Granted, in 2 of the wins, the game was tied after regulation, and took overtime to settle things. The Stars are just 2 shots away from being up 2-1 in this series. Instead, those shots went the other way and they are down 3-0. We’ll find out if they have any resilience left or if the Golden Knights will continue to be too much and clinch.
If you’re looking to have some action on this game, check out our Golden Knights vs Stars SGP below. You can also read our NHL coverage for all of the playoff action.
Stars win (-130)
Under 6.5 (-170)
Joe Pavelski over 0.5 goals (+160)
Golden Knights vs Stars Same Game Parlay odds: +525
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Stars win (-130)
Going back to the well on the Stars for potentially the last time in 2022-2023. They just have to be due. Before this series, the Stars had not lost consecutive games since March 16. From that date until the start of this series, the Stars were 9-0 after a loss with a +20 goal differential in those games. That is an average win by 2.22 goals in games following a loss. Dallas has been resilient all season long and their season depends on them being resilient once again.
Granted, being due for the sake of being due is not reason enough to take a team to win outright, but they have not been dominated as much as the series record indicates. As mentioned, they went beyond regulation in Games 1 and 2. In Game 3, they more than doubled up the Golden Knights on shots on goal 34-16 including 23-6 after the first period. The Stars are not far away.
Under 6.5 (-170)
In terms of game totals, Game 1’s total of 7 was the outlier in Golden Knights-Stars games between the regular season and playoffs. They played head-to-head in the regular season 3 times and there were a total of 12 goals scored for an average of 4 goals scored per game. Not much has changed aside from Game 1. With 9 total goals in games 2 and 3, they averaged 4.5 goals per game. Head-to-head including the outlier, these teams average a game total of 4.67, which makes this alternative under 6.5 look safe.
A safe bet obviously does not typically make for a great value. But the -170 for a higher alternative total under as part of a +525 parlay becomes a better value. If these teams just stick to their averages, a total of 6.5 should not be in jeopardy. The under has been prominent in the regular season and playoffs for both teams. Trends look good for it to continue.
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Joe Pavelski over 0.5 goals (+160)
While we’re going back to the well on Dallas, might as well go back to Joe Pavelski’s goal-scorer prop. The Stars do not have a choice but to produce if their season is going to extend beyond Thursday. If they can muster up enough offense to take Game 4, Joe Pavelski has a great chance to be involved. According to Vegas odds, DraftKings specifically, he is the 3rd most likely Stars player to score. Pavelski will be anxious to be a factor in an elimination game.
Pavelski missed 5 games in these playoffs but still is 2nd on the team in goals and 3rd in points. He has been quiet lately, though. Again, does purely being due mean he will score? No. But any offense the Stars have mustered up in this series has been from the top line which includes Pavelski. He is a great player with a great playoff track record, plays with star players every shift, and is no stranger to his team’s back being against the wall. The veteran should come out buzzing.
Check out our Golden Knights vs Stars official player props.
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