Ryan Hodges
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We are officially over the hump of the NHL season with teams losing runway quickly with each game that goes by. Plenty of teams are lock to make the playoffs and just need the seeds to shake out. But a lot of teams are on the outside looking in — although most are mathematically very alive in the playoff race.
Tuesday’s slate brings a packed schedule that will leave plenty to talk about. There is a lot on the line for a lot of the teams taking the ice.
If you are looking to combine some picks from these games, check out this NHL mega parlay that has +1099 odds with DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Buffalo Sabres vs St. Louis Blues Over 6.5 (-125)
Winnipeg Jets -1.5 over Nashville Predators (+210)
Vancouver Canucks -1.5 over Chicago Blackhawks (+115)
Parlay odds: +1099
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Buffalo Sabres vs St. Louis Blues Over 6.5 (-125)
This matchup has over written all over it. The Blues visited Buffalo in November in a game which the Sabres won 6-2. A 6-spot is nothing new to the Blues as allowing goals in bunches has been an unwelcomed theme for them this season. St. Louis ranks 25th in the NHL in goals allowed per game, which is actually an improvement over the past couple weeks. The Blues just allowed 5 to the Blackhawks on Saturday, which was 29th time in 47 games they either scored or allowed 5+ goals. Their over/under record this season is 29-14-4, including 13-8-2 at home. Their goal scoring ranks 20th in league, so the overs are not carried by prolific goal scoring. The overs are carried by weak defense and goaltending.
On the flip side, the over is 26-18-1 for Buffalo — including 12-8 on the road due to the team’s goal scoring more so than goal prevention. The Sabres score the 2nd-most goals per game in the NHL and have the league’s 4th-best power play. That is a primary driver behind consistent overs in their season. But it certainly doesn’t hurt totals that Buffalo also ranks 24th in goal prevention and 27th in penalty kill. The Blues have scored a respectable 3.5 goals per game in their last 10. The door will be open to pop a few on Buffalo, which should be more than enough to contribute to the over given Buffalo’s goal-scoring strength.
Check out our full analysis of Tuesday’s NHL slate
Winnipeg Jets -1.5 (+210)
The Jets have been fantastic this season while the Predators have largely underachieved. Nashville is still firmly in the playoff race, but it has not shown enough consistency that indicates it will hang against a better team. The Predators are 6-4 in their last 10 and 4-1 in their last 5 at home. But the Jets are 7-3 in their last 10 as part of a 10-3 record in their last 13. Winnipeg has also had Nashville’s number specifically over the seasons, as it is 7-2-1 against the Preds in their last 10 head-to-head. The Jets have just kept the status quo all season without much reprieve. The Predators have shown signs but have too often taken 2 steps back for each step forward.
The Jets score the 10th-most goals per game in the NHL and allow the 4th fewest. They have the 12th-ranked power play and 2nd-ranked penalty kill. They perform better in each of those statistical categories than the Predators, plus goal differential, shot differential and save percentage. The Jets also have much better numbers against the spread. Winnipeg has a 30-18 record against the spread to Nashville’s 23-23 record. The Jets also have a 17-8 road record against the spread to the Predators’ 11-11 home record against the spread. The Jets are looking to keep pace with the Stars atop the Central Division and will surely come out ready to play. Their advantages give this number great value.
Check out all of our NHL predictions
Vancouver Canucks -1.5 (+115)
It’s hard to envy Canucks fans these days. Their organization has been a dumpster fire, but are relying on new head coach Rick Tocchet to steer the ship in the right direction. Their issues very arguably were not Bruce Boudreau’s fault. Regardless, the net result is he is out and another reputable coach is in. The Canucks are in a tough stretch of 2 wins in their last 12 games — not a great look, sure, but they went through a gauntlet in those games. In 19 games since December 10, these have been the Canucks’ opponents: Wild, Flames twice, Jets 3 times, Blues, Kraken, Oilers twice, Sharks, Islanders, Avalanche twice, Penguins, Lightning twice, Panthers and Hurricanes. Even with a fully functioning organization, that is a very difficult stretch of opponents.
The Blackhawks are the least difficult opponent the Canucks have had arguably all season let alone lately. Plus Chicago comes at a time in Vancouver’s schedule where there will probably life breathed into the Canucks in Tocchet’s first game with the reins. Word on the street is the Canucks and Tocchet have been talking for a couple weeks. So he knows the players and has been able to prepare. The Blackhawks might be the worst team in the NHL and are the best matchup Tocchet and a struggling team can ask for. Chicago has played well lately but it is not sustainable. The Canucks are still the deeper, better team, and will play a little cleaner and with a pep in their step on Tuesday. Vancouver has a good chance to dominate.
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