Ryan Hodges
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The underdogs have had a pretty good time to kick off this 2023 NHL postseason. All 4 road teams won on Tuesday by a combined score of 20-6. Those kinds of lopsided results are outliers for any playoffs let alone the NHL. Something has to give for these powerhouse teams that finished atop their divisions to earn home-ice advantage. It is not panic time yet. But Tuesday’s games were not even close. There is a wide gap from those Game 1’s that these higher seeds will be anxious to close on Thursday.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs over 6.5 (+105)
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+130) vs Seattle Kraken
Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (+165) vs Winnipeg Jets
NHL parlay odds: +1149
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs over 6.5 (+105)
Game 1 went over the total very comfortably in a way that the Maple Leafs would like to forget. The Lightning very quickly quieted the crowd as they scored just 1:18 into the game and led 3-0 after the 1st period. Tampa ultimately hung a touchdown and extra point up on Toronto in the highly anticipated Game 1. We’ll see how the Leafs respond, but Tampa has consistently shown that they can produce in big situations. The Lightning will do their part in taking the game over the total and Tuesday left no indication that will not be the case. The Maple Leafs have too much talent themselves to not do their part as well. There is so much top-end talent and depth in this series that the under does not look appealing.
A lack of discipline by the Maple Leafs certainly helped the high total as the Lighting had 8 power plays. Toronto spent 2/3 of a full period in the penalty box on Tuesday. With 12 total penalties in the game, these teams very clearly do not like each other. Even if there are not 12 penalties in game 2, the refs will still have the whistles out to make sure the game does not get out of control. The Maple Leafs and Lightning had the #2 and #3 ranked power play in the NHL respectively this season. These teams can produce 5-on-5 as is, but the special teams should continue to contribute to high totals.
Make sure to check out our full analysis of Thursday’s NHL slate.
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+130) vs Seattle Kraken
The Kraken played great on Tuesday. But do we really see the Avalanche losing 2 consecutive playoff games at home to a wildcard team? Of course, it is the playoffs, and every game is a winnable game or else these teams would not be here. Tuesday’s game 1 was evidence of that. But the Avalanche are just that good that it feels unwise to bet against them in a game that they need to win to avoid hitting the road down 2-0 in the series. The Kraken outshot the Avalanche 13-8 in the 1st period, then Colorado outshot Seattle in the 2nd period 13-12, and then poured it on 14-5 in the 3rd period. The Kraken weathered the storm and pulled off a Game 1 upset. However, if the Avalanche roll that 3rd period form into Game 2, they will pour it on.
Colorado should make for an unfavorable matchup against most teams in the NHL, and the Kraken are no exception. Colorado had better numbers in several statistical categories than Seattle including goal differential, power play, penalty kill, save percentage, shots on goal per game, and faceoff percentage. They also have better top-end talent as the Kraken don’t have a Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, or Mikko Rantanen. The Avs have good depth that has helped keep them afloat amid an injury-ridden season. Colorado is the stronger team and will come out looking to run up the score to even the series.
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Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (+165) vs Winnipeg Jets
To go along with the theme of widely unexpected results in Monday and Tuesday’s Game 1’s, the Jets tacked on a dominant 5-1 win in Vegas. Winnipeg played a perfect game at the same time Vegas flat out laid an egg. Similar to the Kraken-Avalanche, it is just difficult to see that happening again. Not very long ago the Jets were being called out by their own head coach who in his first year looked on the brink of losing the locker room. Now they are playing perfect in the playoffs. The Jets will come back down to earth while the Golden Knights will regroup and make sure they don’t travel to Winnipeg down 2-0 in the series. The Golden Knights dominated the Jets in the regular season and have one of the best home ice advantages in the NHL. This is a good bounce back spot for Vegas.
The Golden Knights have the edge over the Jets offensively in several facets of the game from a large sample size of an 82-game regular season. Vegas is better in goals scored per game, shots on goal scored per game, power play, goals scored 5 on 5, total team points, and team plus minus. They scored 13 goals on the Jets in 3 games during the regular season. Tuesday night was the outlier and the Golden Knights will be anxious to prove it on Thursday. It is unlikely they are limited on the scoreboard again, and unlikely that Winnipeg plays a perfect game again.
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