NFL Wild Card Weekend trends, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith

Welcome to the second season. Just like every other aspect of NFL betting, the playoffs offer their own set of unique challenges, the most important being market efficiency. The NFL is the most bet market in all of sports gambling, therefore sportsbooks pay the most attention to it, and it’s widely regarded as the most efficient market. So after 18 weeks of data collection, the lines are as sharp as ever.

Does that mean there isn’t value to be found? Of course not. But it just means it’s harder to find said value, especially when betting sides and totals.

Regardless of the difficulty level, it’s my job to help guide you through the madness. Thankfully I have help as our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Superbook also offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays.

Check out all of our NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend

 

Is the Trend Your Friend?

We play this game a lot on “Let’s Bet It”, and I think it’s a fun exercise to try and assign value to some of the popular trends floating around this week. Below are 3 of the trendiest trends for Wild Card weekend and how I assign value to each.

Home underdogs

Since 2004 home dogs of less than a field goal are 4-1-1 against the number on Wild Card Weekend, while home dogs of a field goal or more are just 4-7-1 ATS. This trend paints a picture of bad teams who find their way into the postseason via a weak division not faring well against the top Wild Card teams from other divisions.

It’s a relatively small sample, so I don’t think it holds any standalone betting value for this weekend. However, there are two small home underdogs that we will add to this dataset for next season, with the Bucs and Jaguars currently catching less than a field goal at the time of publication.

“Too many points”

I hear this phrase a lot these days. I’m sure I’ve also used it plenty of times throughout my years of doing shows, but I usually cringe afterward because I think it’s a lazy cliche unless immediately backed up with an exact number of points that aren’t “too many”.

The phrase holds even less value this weekend, where historically outright Wild Card winners cover the spread at a higher rate than any other round in the NFL postseason.

Since 2004 there have been 80 games played during the Wild Card round, 10 underdogs have covered but failed to win, and 13 favorites have won but failed to cover. That means in 57 of the 80 games played (71.25%) the team that has won outright has also covered the spread.

Don’t be afraid to lay the chalk this weekend, and also don’t be afraid to bet your underdogs on the ML.

First Timers

Of all the trends you read about this week, I hold this one in pretty high regard and credit our pal ClevTA for bringing it to my attention. Since 2002 first-time playoff QBs facing off against non-first-time QBs are just 14-35-1 ATS (28.5%), including 0-3 last year with Kyler Murray (34-11 vs Rams), Mac Jones (47-17 at Bills), and Jalen Hurts (31-15 at Bucs) all going down in spectacular fashion.

I’ve talked about this every playoffs the last few yrs. Its that time yet again to remind folks:
First-time playoff QBs v non-first time QB are 16-34 SU and 14-35-1 ATS (28.5%) since 2002. 0-3 SU & ATS last year (Kyler, Mac, Hurts). This yr Jones, Skylar(?), Huntley (?) could fit

— Clevta (@Clevta) January 10, 2023

Obviously, not all first-time playoff QBs are created equal. For example, I think very differently about Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert than I do Skylar Thompson and potentially Tyler Huntley. For one, Lawrence and Herbert are facing each other, so those don’t apply. Meanwhile, Huntley and Thompson are vastly outclassed as backups. You also have veteran Geno Smith and rookie Brock Purdy squaring off in another game that doesn’t fit the trend.

But there is one game that could be a perfect match with playoff debutant Daniel Jones facing veteran Kirk Cousins, who is 1-2 SU and ATS in his playoff career. I’ll dive deeper into this game later in the article, but the one wild card to keep in mind with the Jones/Cousins matchup is who is on the sidelines. Both Brian Daboll and Kevin O’Connell will also be making their playoff debuts, and I would give the edge to Daboll in terms of adjustments and overall coaching quality. In fact, I would give Daboll the Coach of the Year award if I had a vote.

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Wild Card market update: What key factors are impacting line movement?

Seahawks at 49ers, Saturday 4:35 pm ET

The last time a team from the NFC West tried to beat their division rival for the 3rd time in the same season, the 49ers dropped the ball in the NFC Championship last year as the Rams advanced to and eventually won the Super Bowl. Do I think the Seahawks will have the same path this postseason? No. But it’s fair to be hesitant about laying double-digits with a rookie QB making his first postseason start.

“Agreed, looking like a potential weather game with some rain and wind,” added Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor Casey Degnon. “We’ve taken some respected money on both sides of double-digits; Seahawks +10.5 and 49ers -9.5. Not surprisingly, more public action with straight bets and parlays on SF so far.”

This is a terrible matchup for the Seahawks defensively, a unit that has trended down all season. If you remove the Week 17 cupcake against the Jets offense and Mike White’s fractured ribs, the Seahawks are ranked just 30th in total DVOA since Week 10 and 29th against the run. Seattle is also 27th in DVOA vs TEs this season and struggled mightily to defend Travis Kelce and George Kittle in recent matchups. I can see Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey all having big games, and Seahawks DC Clint Hurtt will have his hands full.

The one weak link for San Francisco is their secondary, where they have been the thinnest this season, especially at CB. The Niners are ranked 27th in pass DVOA over the last 3 weeks, including a 34-point outburst from Jarrett Stidham and the Raiders. If weather is indeed a factor in this game I would downgrade Seattle’s chances significantly since they won’t be able to take full advantage of this weakness. Check the forecast before the game. 

Check out our Seahawks vs 49ers predictions

Chargers at Jaguars, Saturday 8:15 pm ET

Brandon Staley took a risky approach to a meaningless game against the Broncos last week, playing most of his starters well into the 2nd half, and even getting one of them injured in the process. WR Mike Williams has been ruled out for Saturday’s game because of a back injury he sustained in a game where the Chargers had already locked up the highest seed possible and knew their playoff fate.

“We were in the risk room in disbelief that the starters played as long as they did,” added Degnon. “I still lean LAC here, but I don’t think it’ll go down to -1 again. Some sharp money at -1 but we did see some smaller buy back on JAX at +2.5 also.”

Our pal ClevTA gave out the Chargers as a 3-star bet on Picksiwse this week, so he obviously has a stronger opinion on it than I do. I’ll admit I was very neutral on this game early on in my research as I saw a lot of volatility with 2 starting QBs making their playoff debuts and Staley being a total wild card on the sidelines with his aggressive nature.

Check out Clevta’s best bet in his Chargers vs Jaguars predictions

Dolphins at Bills, Sunday 1pm ET

Of all the games this week, this is the one I did the least amount of research on. I just didn’t see a ton of value diving into the matchups, considering how worthless the Dolphins priors were with Skylar Thompson scheduled to start. I also think this Bills team is being buoyed by the inspirational story of Damar Hamlin, which is a very difficult thing to quantify.

“I could see some small buy back if it got up to Dolphins +14 but I think that will be more of a situation where they laid -9 and are taking +14,” added Degnon. “Asking Skylar Thompson to keep up with an emotional Bills team at home is a tough ask, especially if they go behind early. I like Bills in the 1st half as well.”

Anyone with a Bills -9 ticket in their back pocket should absolutely consider coming back for the same or slightly less amount on Dolphins +14 as it’s rare you see 5-point middle opportunities in the NFL postseason. I also like Casey’s angle of Bills -7 in the 1st half and that is the only way I would bet this game.

Check out our Dolphins vs Bills predictions

Ravens at Bengals, Sunday 8:15 pm ET

Another game I did very little prep on due to the Ravens’ offense being a total mess without Lamar Jackson and the unique circumstances of these teams playing in back-to-back weeks. Unlike the other 2 teams this weekend facing off against familiar division foes, Baltimore actually has a legit defense they can bring to the party, which makes them the most dangerous of the big underdogs.

“Passing on this game but I like the angle,” added Degnon. “Curious to see who’s going to get the start because I don’t love Huntley, but he is a definite upgrade over Brown. Action for us has been all Cincy thus far.”

If you recall from a few weeks ago, I am sitting on a Bengals +1600 Super Bowl ticket that I am not as bullish on now considering the injuries to their offensive line. RT La’El Collins was already sidelined a few weeks ago, and now RG Alex Cappa missed practice this week with an ankle injury. Joe Burrow was sacked 3.6 times per game in Weeks 1-8, and the Bengals went 4-4, that number has been reduced to 1.5 times over the last 8 games, and Cincinnati is 8-0.

The Ravens’ defense is top 10 in sack percentage this season and has a lot of versatility with Patrick Queen and Calais Campbell doing a good job generating pressure from positions besides edge rusher. I can see a scenario where Joe Burrow is under extreme duress and Baltimore forces a couple of turnovers, which is the only way I see them staying in this game.

Check out our Ravens vs Bengals predictions

Cowboys at Bucs, Monday 8:15 pm ET

We might have saved the best for last with this Monday night matchup. The Bucs have been trending up the past few weeks, so I wasn’t surprised we saw all the +3.5’s and +3’s gobbled up within 20 minutes of the market opening Sunday night. Since then, I’ve noticed some sharp buyback on Cowboys -2.5, so I would expect this game to magnetize and close right near that key number of 3.

“Yeah exactly, they were quick to take the points with TB when we opened this game Sunday night,” added Degnon. “I could see over being the right side especially if Dallas goes up early and forces Brady to throw 40+ times. We’ll need Dallas Monday for a decent result unless something changes this weekend. Not a ton of interest on the total but we are up a full point from the opener Sunday night.”

Casey and I aligned in the over as there’s so much to like about this game being a good matchup for yards and points, as long as Byron Leftwich wakes up and realizes his offense is much better suited to being aggressive on early downs.

For example, in that crucial NFC South clinching win over the Panthers, a game that featured 54 points and sailed way over the total of 41, Tampa had a 61% success rate on early down throws compared to just 33% on early-down runs. This is important against a Cowboys secondary that is 25th in passing DOVA since Week 13, a stretch of games where they only faced one legit starting QB (Trevor Lawrence) mostly getting torched by the likes of Davis Mills, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew, Josh Dobbs and Sam Howell.

If Tampa turns up the heat, and Dallas is forced to match serve early, I see this game being a shootout.

Check out our Cowboys vs Buccaneers predictions

 

Wild Card Weekend Best Bet: Vikings -3 (-110)

If you looked up “overachieving” in the sports dictionary, you would see a picture of these 2 teams. For just the 4th time ever, an NFL playoff game will feature teams that both are carrying a negative point differential. The Vikings have been a truly interesting case study, winning 13 times by a combined 86 points and losing 4 times by a combined 89 with margins of 17, 37, 11, and 24. Minnesota is also the master of doing just enough, going 11-0 in one-score games, the most such victories ever recorded in a single season.

The Giants have also gotten it done with smoke and mirrors, as Brian Daboll patched together a makeshift group of receivers and transformed Daniel Jones into a competent NFL quarterback. I think Daboll deserves to win coach of the year, and I think based on the market movement last week he is getting strong consideration for that award.

Minnesota won 27-24 but failed to cover as a 4.5-point favorite in this same spot just a few weeks ago. The Giants outgained Minnesota 445-353 in that matchup as Jones threw for 334 yards, his 2nd highest total of the season. He also had 2 big-time throws, just the 2nd game all season where he had more than 1.

I think it’s fair to question why this line has moved 1.5 points over the last 3 weeks when you consider the variables for both teams since that point. The Giants are healthier on defense while the Vikings are getting back two key pieces up front, C Garrett Bradbury and RT Blake Brandle, who didn’t play in the first matchup.

Solidifying the offensive line carries extra importance when facing Wink Martindale’s pressure-happy defense. The Giants have the highest blitz rate in the NFL this season, but Kirk Cousins has the 2nd most big-time throws when under pressure this season and a relatively low turnover-worthy play rate, so I would not be surprised if we get some explosive moments from him in this game.

“I lean MIN with you here too if I had to play the game,” added Degnon. “Some sharp action on both sides here also. Yes, more public love for the Gmen as of now, I assume we’ll be rooting for the Vikes come Sunday afternoon.”

It’s hard to find legit 3-star value in the NFL postseason, but when I analyze the first matchup and try to gauge what’s happened since then, I’m not sure I can say the Giants are 1.5 points better than they were on Christmas Eve, and the Vikings are not 1.5 points worse if anything they get an upgrade if Bradbury/Brandle return. Especially when those points get me back onto the most key number.

Check out our Giants vs Vikings predictions

 

Wild Card Weekend portfolio:

Vikings -3 -110 (risk 3.3u at South Point)
Bills -7 1stH -120 (risk 2.4u at South Point)
Cowboys/Bucs o45.5 -105 (risk 2.1u at Fanduel)

NFL 2022 best bets: 10-8, +2.83u (55.2%, +6.2% ROI)
NFL 2022 column: 34-30-1, +2.18u (+1.6% ROI)