Sunday’s slate of Wild Card Weekend features three exciting matchups. The Dolphins and Bills kick off the day and they are followed by the Giants and Vikings before the Ravens and Bengals wrap things up. I have taken a pick from each game to create Sunday’s NFL mega parlay that pays out at more than than 10/1 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Check out all of our NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend
Bills first half alternate spread -9.5 (+115)
Vikings alternate spread -6 (+148)
Ravens-Bengals alternate total over 42.5 (+111)
Parlay odds: +1025
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Buffalo Bills first half -9.5 (+115) over Miami Dolphins
There are very few teams that enjoy playing in the cold. However, the Buffalo Bills seem to thrive in such conditions. The forecast predicts it to be 24 degrees at kickoff, seeming to immediately give Buffalo an advantage. The reason the Bills can be so dangerous at home is that they flourish in the cold and jump out quick leads. Buffalo finished the regular season averaging 19.7 points in the first half at home, the most in the league. The Bills also finished 6-2 ATS in the first half at home — the 4th most profitable team in that situation.
They will host Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins, a team that is falling apart rapidly. In Thompson’s Week 18 start against the Jets, the Fins scored just 3 points in the first half. The rookie finished the regular season with 60 completions on 105 attempts, but more concerningly only 1 touchdown with 3 interceptions. Keep in mind that Miami visited Buffalo in Week 15 with Tua Tagovailoa, and the Bills were winning 21-13 at halftime. With the 7th-round rookie under center, this game should be over quickly — and that starts with a big first-half lead.
Check out our Dolphins-Bills TD scorer best bets!
Minnesota Vikings -6 (+148) over New York Giants
The Vikings squeaked by the Giants in Week 16, but that shouldn’t be the case again on Sunday. Minnesota defeated the Giants 27-24 just a few weeks ago in a game that Kirk Cousins went 34 of 48 for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns. Just looking at his stat line, you might think that the Vikings won by a lot more than a field goal. It took a little bit for the Minnesota passing attack to click, but when it did, it was unstoppable. Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson combined for 25 receptions, 242 yards and 3 touchdowns — a truly absurd performance from the duo. It became clear that New York couldn’t stop Jefferson from getting open and that linebackers were a bad choice at keeping up with Hockenson in coverage.
The only bad news was the Minnesota defense. The Vikings’ secondary, which has been their Achilles heel this season, allowed Daniel Jones to throw for 334 yards and a touchdown. It was the 2nd-most yards thrown for Jones all year, so I would say that performance was Jones’ ceiling. I highly doubt the Vikings’ defense will get burned as badly as they did in Week 16, since they have film and an idea of how New York will attack them. For that reason, I’ll take Minnesota’s alternate spread up to 2 field goals.
Don’t miss our Giants-Vikings Same Game Parlay at +869 odds!
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals Over 42.5 (+111)
I was surprised to see the total as low as it was, so I believe there is value in taking an alternate over. Normally, this game could see a total as high as 50 points with Lamar Jackson battling Joe Burrow, but Jackson remains sidelined with a knee injury. However, the good news for Baltimore is that backup quarterback Tyler Huntley was seen throwing at practice this week. He is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game, and if he does play I would expect this total to rise from 40.5 to closer to 42. Therefore getting over 42.5 at plus odds has value. This wild-card matchup has the same setting as the Week 18 contest between these 2 teams, and that game finished with 43 points. Not only was that with third-string quarterback Anthony Brown starting for the Ravens, but the Bengals also jumped out to such a large first-half lead that they put the offense in cruise control in the second half.
Cincinnati was leading 24-7 at halftime, and to no surprise it came out flat in the second half after realizing the win was in the bag. I expect the Bengals to be winning at half again, but it’s now the playoffs meaning anything can happen and the second you let up you are putting yourself in a bad position. With Cincinnati actually trying to score in the second half, I expect the home team to score around 30 points. That means all I need Tyler Huntley to do is score 13 points, and since that’s exactly what they average in the last 6 weeks it’s more than plausible.
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