Welcome to Wild Card Weekend! We are treated to six games, from Saturday afternoon all the way through Monday night. We have a few games expected to be close, but also a few games that are predicted to be decided by two or more scores. On Saturday, I expect the latter. Underdogs were just 1-5 ATS in Wild Card Weekend last season, and I expect that trend to continue. For this Saturday mega parlay, I am taking two of the favorites’ alternate spreads, because I am expecting big wins.
49ers alternate spread -13.5 (+143)
Chargers alternate spread -6.5 (+176)
Parlay odds: +570
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San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (+143) over Seattle Seahawks
Mr. Irrelevant has become very, very relevant. Brock Purdy has gone 5-0 since taking the reins from Jimmy Garoppolo, and he’s making his first playoff start with his team favored by nearly double-digits. However, I don’t think that’s enough. San Francisco’s defense was a big reason for their success in the first half of the season, but lately, it’s been their elite offense. Purdy led the Niners to score 37, 37 and 38 points in the final 3 games of the season, which means they have scored 30 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games. That’s a pace that the Seahawks won’t be able to keep up with. Seattle ended their season with a 19-16 overtime win over the Rams, but the fact they could barely beat a broken team is concerning.
When Seattle faced two above-average defenses at the end of the season in the Chiefs and 49ers, they scored just 10 and 13 points. San Francisco is allowing just 14.8 points per game at home, which ranks 1st in the league, and they’ve surrendered only 20 points to Seattle in 2 games this season. Simply put, the Seahawks are overmatched. I’ll back the Niners for a blowout win to open Wild Card Weekend.
Check out our Seahawks vs 49ers predictions
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 (+176) over Jacksonville Jaguars
This should be one of the most interesting matchups of the weekend. Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence are making their playoff debuts in a game many expect to be close from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. Los Angeles opened as 1-point favorites, but by Thursday morning, their spread had moved to 2.5. It was clear – sportsbooks were getting hammered with people betting on the Chargers. When you dig below the surface of Jacksonville being named a dark horse in the playoffs their true identity shows. They had one of the easiest final stretches in the regular season of any team, which included facing the Titans (without Ryan Tannehill), Texans and Jets.
While Trevor Lawrence and the offense were starting to click, their defense appeared to be surging too. However, the Jaguars had the 2nd easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses in the regular season. That means they are in for a reality check against Herbert and the Bolts, who pass at one of the highest rates in football. And when Herbert has both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who is questionable for Saturday, the Chargers’ pass offense EPA goes from 20th to the 10th best pass offense. Los Angeles should unveil Jacksonville’s true colors en route to a commanding win.
Clevta has a best bet in his Chargers vs Jaguars predictions
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