Wild Card Weekend continues with the Miami Dolphins traveling to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills. Unfortunately for the Fins, Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out. That means Skylar Thompson is in line to start against an elite Bills team. I’ve put a Same Game Parlay together for this divisional battle that pays out at nearly 8/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Check out our full Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills predictions
Bills -13.5 (-105)
Stefon Diggs to score a touchdown (+105)
Under 41.5 (+116)
Parlay odds: +787
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Buffalo Bills -13.5 (-105) over Miami Dolphins
This is one of the largest spreads we’ve seen in a Wild Card Weekend in a long time, and it’s well deserved. Buffalo is coming off a 12-point win over New England in Week 18, so I can only imagine the damage the Bills will cause against an injured-plague Miami team. Tua Tagovailoa remains out, and Teddy Bridgewater is doubtful, so it seems Skylar Thompson will get another shot. In his start against the Jets in Week 18, Thompson was 20/31 for 152 yards. The good news? Thompson did not turn the ball over. The bad news? The Dolphins’ offense never found the end zone.
They were able to get away with that against the Jets, but scoring 11 points against the Bills is asking for defeat. Under Skylar Thomspon, the Dolphins have scored 18 points in the last 5 quarters. I have very little faith in the rookie, especially with Buffalo still playing for Damar Hamlin. The Bills average the 2nd most points per game at home and have won by double-digits in 3 of their last 5 games, so they’re the clear choice in this game.
Stefon Diggs to score a touchdown (+105)
Buffalo should be scoring at will on Sunday, and one guy I think should find the end zone is Josh Allen’s favorite target. With 7 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown against a tough Patriots defense in Week 18, Stefon Diggs had a great game. The dependable receiver has the pportunity to shine against a banged-up Miami secondary. He has faced this Miami defense twice this season and has amassed 134 yards on 12 catches from 20 targets. Since oddsmakers anticipate Buffalo to enter the red zone frequently, it will give Diggs several scoring opportunities.
He has the highest red zone target percentage among all Bills receivers (34.78%), which is 17.39% more than Isaiah McKenzie, who is in second place. Seven of his 13 catches in the end zone have resulted in touchdowns. There is always value to bet on Diggs to score at plus odds.
Under 41.5 (+116)
Buffalo’s large spread correlates with the under, in my opinion. My reasoning for taking Buffalo is because their offense is far superior while Miami is dealing with a slew of injuries that will impact their team on both sides of the ball. Mac Jones and a healthy Patriots offense scord 23 points in Week 18, which makes me think it will be a long game for the Dolphins offense. Miami will be without their top two quarterbacks, but Raheem Mostert and several starting offensive lineman also missed practice this week, so I would be surprised to see Miami score more than 13 points.
The combination of a rookie quarterback going against the 2nd best defensive unit in opponent points per game is an excellent recipe for very little offensive production from the Fins. I envision a 30-10 game in favor of the Bills, which covers Buffalo’s large spread as well as the alternate under. Unlike the two games in this season’s series, this playoff game won’t be close.
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