Ricky Dimon
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Six games are spread across 3 days during the NFL’s super wild-card weekend, starting with a pair on Saturday. Following an opener between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, the AFC festivities are getting started with the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars. Los Angeles locked up a wild-card berth in Week 17, while Jacksonville waited until Week 18 to clinch the AFC South title with a huge win over Tennessee.
Below is our SGP for Saturday’s primetime game, and also be sure to check out our full Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars predictions on the side and total.
Chargers -2.5 (-106)
Austin Ekeler over 35.5 receiving yards (-114)
Trevor Lawrence over 248.5 passing yards (-114)
Same Game Parlay odds: +616
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Austin Ekeler racking up his fair share of receiving yards would work well with a Los Angeles win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Trevor Lawrence to throw for plenty of yards, but even if he does there is no reason why the Chargers can’t take care of business.
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Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (-106)
When you get the better QB (Justin Herbert) with superior weapons (hopefully Mike Williams plays) and a stronger defense without having to lay even a field goal, it’s an opportunity you have to like. The Jaguars are being overvalued after going on a 5-game winning streak to capture the AFC South title, but the run came at the expense of unspectacular competition and the division was pretty much handed to them by the sinking ship that was Tennessee. The Jags have allowed the 8th-highest YAC per reception and are saddled with the 8th-highest missed-tackle percentage. That isn’t great heading into a matchup with Ekeler and company. This Chargers offense is much different when healthy, which wasn’t the case earlier in the season. Excluding Week 18 (which was a meaningless game), Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have played only 6 games together this year. In those games the Chargers’ pass offense EPA goes from 20th to 10th-best in the NFL. They went 5-1 straight up (the only loss was 30-27 to Kansas City) and 5-0-1 ATS in those 6. Give me Los Angeles to win and cover.
Austin Ekeler over 35.5 receiving yards (-114)
I’m not going to say that Austin Ekeler singlehandedly won me my fantasy league (he had some help from Patrick Mahomes and Josh Jacobs), but he was certainly a big factor. Most notable, of course, were his amazing 107 receptions. Ekeler turned those catches into 722 receiving yards, and it’s also worth noting that 5 of his 18 touchdowns came via the airwaves. In Week 3 against Jacksonville he had 8 receptions on 8 targets for 48 yards. During the regular season the Jags gave up the most targets to opposing running backs, second-most receptions and second-most receiving yards.
Trevor Lawrence over 248.5 passing yards (-114)
This play doesn’t really conflict with a Chargers -2.5 bet because if the Jaguars are playing from behind then they will have more reason to air it out. Lawrence has exceeded this number 8 times, with half of those featuring at least 310 passing yards. Most of the occasions during the regular season on which Lawrence’s yardage was limited were when the games were blowouts or Jacksonville was sitting on a lead and milking the clock. I don’t see either of those scenarios happening this weekend. The former #1 overall pick threw for 262 yards in the first head-to-head encounter and something similar could be in store for the rematch.
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