Ricky Dimon
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Six games are spread across 3 days during super Wild Card Weekend, and it all wraps up with a mouth-watering Monday night showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Interestingly, the team with a sub-.500 record (the 8-9 Bucs) has home-field advantage over the team with a 12-5 mark (the Cowboys) because the former won the woeful NFC South and the latter had to settle for a wild card out of the powerful NFC East. Below is our Cowboys vs Buccaneers Same Game Parlay for the Wild Card Weekend finale, and also be sure to check out our full Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions on the side and total.
Over 45.5 (-106)
Dalton Schultz to record 50+ receiving yards (+174)
Chris Godwin to score a touchdown (+210)
Same Game Parlay odds: +954
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Dalton Schultz racking up his fair share of receiving yards and Chris Godwin finding the end zone would work well with a successful over bet. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Over 45.5 (-106)
The key to this game going over the total could be for Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich to wake up and realize that his offense is much better suited to being aggressive on early downs. In their NFC South-clinching win over the Panthers (when 54 points were scored and the total was set at 41), the Bucs had a 61% success rate on early-down throws compared to just 33% on early-down runs.
This will be an important factor against a Cowboys secondary that is 25th in passing DOVA since Week 13 — a stretch of games in which they faced only 1 legit starting QB (Trevor Lawrence), mostly getting torched by the likes of Davis Mills, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew, Josh Dobbs and Sam Howell. An offense with Godwin, Tom Brady, Mike Evans and Julio Jones should not be kept under wraps by defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s unit.
Get Prop Holliday’s Cowboys vs Buccaneers best player props
Dalton Schultz to record 50+ receiving yards (+174)
This should be a favorable matchup for Dalton Schultz against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season. The Bucs gave up more than 50 yards per game to opposing TEs and I expect Schultz to reach that mark on Monday night. In Week 1 against Tampa Bay he caught 7 of 9 targets for 62 yards. The Stanford product has been targeted 19 times over the past 2 contests and in Week 17 he hauled in 7 passes for 56 yards and 2 touchdowns as Dallas defeated Tennessee 27-13.
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Chris Godwin to score a touchdown (+210)
Chris Godwin figures to have a favorable matchup on his hands in the slot going up against Cowboys rookie CB DaRon Bland. Bland has 4 INTs in the last 6 games, but that’s primarily because he is being picked on by opposing QBs. Bland is giving up a target every 5 snaps and a reception every 6.6 snaps, which are the worst such numbers among starting cornerbacks in the league. Facing teams with superior slot receivers, Bland has been victimized. Against the Jaguars he allowed 12 targets, 7 receptions and 62 yards and against the Eagles he gave up 9 targets 6 receptions 67 yards.
Godwin started the 2022 campaign a bit slow, which is understandable since he was coming off a torn ACL last season. But he heated up quickly, and in only 15 contests he had 104 receptions for 1,023 yards. Godwin scored just 3 TDs, but all 3 of those came in the last 8 games. Dating back to October 16, the 26-year-old has been targeted at least 7 times in every outing – including 7 instances of double-digit targets. Look for him to convert at least 1 of his chances into a TD on Monday.
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