Andrew Wilsher
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Welcome to the NFL playoffs, Pickswise Nation! The 2023 NFL regular season was certainly one to remember, especially for our expert handicappers. We ended the season 57-40 with our NFL best bets, delivering +29.55 units of profit overall! We also 288-247-8 with our NFL picks on the side and total for every game, which delivered +47.9 units of profit. Now, we look to keep that momentum rolling in the postseason with 3 of our experts giving their best bets for Super Wild Card Weekend. Let’s dive in.
John Martin: Cleveland Browns -2.5 over Houston Texans (-110)
This Browns vs Texans game poses an intriguing scenario to sports bettors. You have an opportunity to back one of the most dynamic rookie quarterbacks the league has seen in quite some time as a home underdog. CJ Stroud has been nothing short of incredible for the Texans and is the primary reason Houston is in this situation to begin with. He deserves credit for taking the Texans from a 3-win team a year ago to a playoff team. When first-time playoff quarterbacks go up against quarterbacks who have made previous playoff appearances, the first-timers are only covering the spread at a rate of 38%. Conversely, when you dive a bit deeper into what the Texans have been doing and who they’ve been beating over the last month, the picture becomes a bit murkier.
Houston has not beaten a top-20 defense since Week 6 and they must now take on the #1-ranked unit in the NFL in the Cleveland Browns. That’s a lot to ask for a rookie quarterback. As amazing as Stroud may be, you’re also asking him to knock off the league’s top defense with perhaps just one of his receiving weapons. The Texans’ injuries on offense are beginning to catch up to them, and they only just got past the Colts last week. This Browns defense is levels above that unit, and ultimately I like veteran Joe Flacco to humble the young pretenders in this one. Take Cleveland to win this one by at least a field goal.
Be sure to check out our full Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans predictions
Chris Farley: Los Angeles Rams +3.5 over Detroit Lions (-110)
We won’t speculate on how the NFL machine seems to always find a way to create these soap opera scenarios, but that’s exactly what we’ll get when Matthew Stafford travels to Detroit to take on his former team. Oh and as if you don’t already know, the resurgent Jared Goff also takes on his former team, against the coach and franchise that happily traded him away in March 2021. Get your popcorn ready.
When the dust settles between two motivated QBs in the tense environment of the Wildcard playoffs, the thrower with more poise typically comes out the winner. Of course the 21 other players on the field matter, too, but we have little doubt that Stafford and Goff will be trading blows throughout this contest. We give Matthew Stafford the edge there for several reasons, most notably because of his most recent performance. Since December, the veteran QB has been on fire. He threw 11 TDs the last five weeks, along with just 2 INTs, and completed 67% of his passes, and against some very good pass-defenses (CLE, BAL, WAS, NO, and NYG). Undoubtedly, his chemistry with Cooper Kupp and breakout rookie wide-receiver Puka Nacua hasn’t hurt. The two star catchers combined for 2,223 yards and 11 TDs this year, and as a duo they averaged 13.3 yards per catch, a truly sensational mark. Stafford has also been on the biggest stage and succeeded, along with head coach Sean McVay. After a down year where Stafford missed most of 2022 with an injury, their partnership has produced soaring results yet again this season.
This is all bad news for the Lions because their secondary has been a huge problem. To put it bluntly, third-string backup QB Nick Mullens threw for 807 yards against the Lions in two recent contests. What do you think Stafford will do? Detroit’s defense is bottom five in opponent passing yards per game (247.4) and yards per pass (7.2), both metrics that are bound to get worse against LAR’s attack this Sunday. The Rams’ defense isn’t impregnable by any stretch, but we’ve seen steady improvement all year. They’re stout against the run (107 rush yards allowed per game), and they’ve gotten better at sacking the quarterback and limiting opposing offenses in the red-zone. Oh and they still have the incomparable Aaron Donald as their leader.
While the Lions’ offense is well above average, especially at home, we see several paths to victory for the Rams, too. The biggest matchup advantage is Stafford’s elite arm against an extremely subpar Detroit backfield. That’s hard to ignore. We’re sure Goff will be just as fired up and Dan Campbell’s team won’t go down without a fight, but if we see a clear path to victory for the visiting team, we can’t ignore an underdog at this sexy of a number.
Be sure to check out our full LA Rams vs Detroit Lions predictions
The Betting Queen: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 over Philadelphia Eagles (-110)
Super Wild Card Weekend is upon us and rounding it off is a spectacular matchup on Monday night between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Eagles started the season with a 10-1 record but have been a complete mess ever since. They have gone 1-5 in their last 6 games, including getting blown out by the Giants last Sunday, and their defense looks a shell of its former self. They are allowing over 25 points per game to opposing offenses and cannot stop the passing game to save their lives. They rank 5th-last in pass defense, allowing over 267 passing yards per game. Another concern for the Eagles is quarterback Jalen Hurts, who is dealing with a finger injury and was benched in their Week 18 loss to the Giants. There are also rumors of discontent in the locker room which will not help things. The playoffs could not have come at a worse time for the Eagles and I expect them to continue struggling on offense and defense against Tampa Bay.
One of the Buccaneers’ biggest strengths this season has been their defense, as they are only allowing 19 points per game and have turned into one of the best units in the NFL. The Bucs are coming into the game having won 5 of their last 6 games and appear to be catching fire at the right time. It’s been a little lost among the other storylines, but Baker Mayfield has quietly had a phenomenal season and threw for over 4,000 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. I’m expecting him to have a field day against this depleted Eagles secondary and have his way with them all game. I know the Eagles beat the Bucs earlier in the season 25-11, but these are 2 completely different teams compared to what we saw back in September. I’m expecting the Eagles to continue struggling and to find themselves in a hole on Monday night. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tampa win the game, but I’m taking the Buccaneers +3 with confidence to secure the field-goal insurance.
Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions
