The finale of wild-card Sunday is a rematch of Week 18 between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow and the Bengals were able to win 27-16 last week, but with Tyler Huntley expected back we should see a more competitive game (hopefully). I have come up with a Same Game Parlay at FanDuel for this exciting matchup, with a payout of more than 7/1 odds!
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Bengals 1H -4.5 (-115)
Ravens team total under 15.5 (-110)
Over 43.5 (+134)
Same Game Parlay odds: +726
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Cincinnati Bengals 1H -4.5 (-115) over Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals ended the regular season on a 5-0 ATS run in the first half at home. During that streak, the Bengals averaged 22.8 points in the first half with a +15.4 point winning margin. One of their victims was the Ravens in Week 18, as Cincinnati jumped out to a 24-7 lead in the first half. Granted, Baltimore had Anthony Brown under center instead of Tyler Huntley, but the Ravens’ offense under Huntley isn’t exactly that much better. Huntley started 4 games after Lamar Jackson went down, and Baltimore averaged just 10 first half points in that span. It’s clear that the Ravens are not the same team without Jackson calling the shots.
With Huntley or Brown at quarterback, the Baltimore wide receivers are irrelevant, Mark Andrews looks like a below-average tight end, and their offense looks pathetic. The Bengals average 19.1 points per game in the first half at home this season, which ranks 2nd in the league, and I expect Cincinnati to jump out to an early lead for the second week in a row against the Ravens.
Check out our Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals predictions
Ravens team total Under 15.5 (-110)
Since Jackson went down, the Ravens have averaged 13 points per game. And in the game Jackson was injured, it was early in the first quarter, and Huntley led Baltimore to just 10 points for the rest of the game. Whether Huntley is healthy enough to start or not, this offense is not capable of scoring more than a single touchdown in a game. The Ravens were able to score 16 points against the Bengals in Week 18, but 9 points came in the second half when the Bengals had put the team on autopilot. Even with the Bengals defense not playing with the same intensity in the second half, Baltimore couldn’t find the endzone.
And yes, Huntley would be an upgrade from Brown, but barely. He’s still a below-average quarterback facing a Cincinnati defense that allows the 6th fewest points when at home. I could see Baltimore reaching 13 or 14 points, but it’s hard to expect anything more when Jackson is not under center.
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Over 43.5 (+134)
When Jackson and Burrow face off, the total would be far above this number — but Jackson is still out with a knee injury. The good news for Baltimore, though, is that Huntley was spotted throwing this week during practice. He is labeled as questionable for the game on Sunday, and if he plays, I anticipate this total to increase slightly from 40.5. Therefore there is value in getting over 43.5 at plus odds. Week 18’s matchup combined for 43 points with the third-string quarterback starting for Baltimore, which means we could see a slight boost in points with Huntley starting. In the first half of Week 18, there were 31 points scored. The over seemed close to being sweat-free, but the issue was that Cincinnati had scored most of the points.
If this Wild Card matchup can stay a little more competitive, like a score within 10 of halftime, we won’t see Cincinnati come out flat in the second half. That should lead to more than just a field goal scored in the final half from the Bengals, which will likely translate to the Bengals scoring around 30 points. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Huntley and the Baltimore offense, but asking them to score 14 is right on the mark of their average in the last few weeks — so this is worth the risk.
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