NFL Week 9 picks, predictions & best bets from Jared Smith: Can our NFL expert go undefeated once again?

One week after going 0-3 the column, we bounced back with a 3-0 performance last week including a strong winner on the Pats as our best bet. Hopefully we can keep the sailing smooth in back-to-back weeks and get this season back on track.

As per usual, our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Westgate offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays.

Week 9 market update: Which games have seen significant line movement

Rams at Bucs: Battle of NFC underachievers

I was very disappointed with what Sean McVay and the Rams offense showed off the bye last week against a banged up 49ers defense that they are very familiar with. The market has agreed with that sentiment, moving this line a full 3 points from a pick’em right up to that key number of 3 despite this week’s opponent also underperforming all expectations so far this season.

“I think we could potentially see some buy back at 3 but so far, it’s one way traffic on the Bucs,” added Degnon. “The Rams offensive line just looks out of whack and so does Stafford. I’m with you in not writing Tampa off yet just because of how subpar the NFC South is.”

The Rams offensive line still has 3 Week 1 starters on IR and is grading out as a bottom 5 unit across the board, so I don’t see much room for improvement there. Meanwhile starting CBs Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Burning both returned to practice in full this week for Tampa, so things won’t be getting easier for Matthew Stafford.

Check out our Rams vs Buccaneers predictions

Bills at Jets: How many points is too many?

This is one of two games in Week 9 featuring a double-digit spread between two winning teams (Titans/Chiefs). That would usually point me in the direction of the favorite, however considering how poorly the heavy chalk has fared against the number this season it’s fair to be hesitant. Favorites of 7+ are covering at a rate of barely above 35% (10-18 ATS) this season, which is the least profitable start in nearly 2 decades.

But if you widen the sample to include all of last season that record jumps to 50.8% (62-60-3 ATS) which shows the importance of keeping every trend in context. In this particular matchup, I struggle to find logical reasons to back the Jets besides that recent trend which says big favorites are struggling.

Zach Wilson continues to fall short of expectations and is the worst graded QB in the NFL when facing pressure, something Buffalo has been able to generate this season without needing to blitz. The Jets offensive line is also banged up and while their defense has played well, this will unequivocally be the most difficult challenge they have faced all season.

“It could only be Bills for me here, but we actually have more action on the Jets so far this week,” added Degnon. “We also took some sharp money on the home dog +13.”

At the time of publication Thursday night this line creeped back to Jets +11.5, so the majority of the market clearly favors the underdog, enough for me to pass here.

Check our our Bills vs Jets predictions

Talking Totals: Scoring still a struggle

We’ve had 5 weeks with more unders than overs already this season, and the other 3 weeks have finished in a dead heat. Translation, scoring is down across the league and bettors willing to sweat it out are getting rewarded for their perspiration. Divisional unders have been even more profitable, cashing at a rate of 70% (28-12) with $100 bettors up $1,351.

“I do think we’re still due for some positive regression, just not sure how much or to what extent,” added Degnon. “Not at the point where we’re blindly betting all overs or anything crazy like that yet.”

Trends are fun to talk about and fantasize over, but at the end of the day the matchups matter more in my eyes and should always be looked at first when handicapping a game. Trends can certainly help with the handicapping process and I use them regularly, but they should never be the sole reason for placing a wager.

That being said, last week 3 of the 5 divisional games stayed under the total, lining up with the trend so far this season. There are 3 on the schedule this week…

Bills at Jets, 45.5

Packers at Lions, 49.5

Seahawks at Cardinals, 49.5

Of these 3, Bills/Jets has seen the most movement from an opening total of 47.5 last week. The matchups in the game scream under to me, but that bet offers significantly less value now that it’s moved below the secondary key number of 47. Additionally, Zach Wilson’s inability to diagnose pressure might lead to some volatility on the scoreboard.

The other 2 games have seen virtually zero movement off the current totals listed and frankly I don’t think the matchups favor the under in either.  In fact I would not be surprised if this is finally the week we see more overs than unders, especially in the divisional games.

Just like last week, I’m passing on giving out a total as a “best bet” until I find the right price and opportunity.  That being said, if you are still interested in being an active observer in the totals market this week, I would consider betting small on the unders in Rams/Bucs and Panthers/Bengals as both are flashing some value at their current price of 42.5.

We’ll have picks and predictions for EVERY NFL game this season!

Week 9 Best Bet: Raiders -1 (-110)

There’s no logical explanation for how poorly Las Vegas played last week getting shutout in New Orleans. That being said, at this time of the year when the lines begin to sharpen, I look for outlier performances like that to create hidden value in the market the following week.

Considering how bad the Jags played in London, and we’ll get to that in a minute, it is fair to say even an average performance in a losing effort for the Raiders would have resulted in this line reopening higher than essentially a pick’em. But instead, Vegas got absolutely blasted in the Big Easy, and this line opened Raiders -1.

Now to Jacksonville’s struggles, especially on offense, which were quite glaring across the pond. Things started out great for Trevor Lawrence when things were on script with a 70% success rate in the first quarter. But the mood abruptly shifted after Lawrence threw a mind-numbing interception on 1st and goal from the 1-yard line in the opening minutes of the second quarter.

From that point on the Jaguars offense only posted a 36% success rate for the remainder of the game, and most of it fell on Lawrence’s shoulders since the running game was performing well. Overall Lawrence graded out as the second-worst performing quarterbacks of the entire week just behind Daniel Jones.

If the Raiders offense starts fast after getting embarrassed last week, which I expect, that will put Lawrence into a negative game script, which is when his inefficiencies will be magnified. Jacksonville’s defense is 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency this season, which is a big step down in class from the 7th-ranked Saints unit Las Vegas faced last week.

Finally I’ll close with this trend, which holds a little more weight in my eyes because of the circumstances attached. Since 2015 teams have gone 25-10-3 ATS (71%) the week after being shutout. At the end of the day these are professional athletes, and I trust the Raiders offense to positively regress back to the mean.

Week 9 portfolio: 

Raiders -1 -110 (risk 3.3u at South Point)

Bucs -2.5 -120 (risk 2.4u at Westgate)

NFL 2022 best bets: 5-3, +2.21u (+14.9% ROI)

NFL 2022 column: 15-14-0, -1.84u (-3.9% ROI)