Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 9 of the NFL season kicked off on Thursday night and it wasn’t all that competitive. Now with the Eagles win over the Texans out of the way, we get to turn our attention to a Sunday slate that isn’t that appetizing on paper but does feature some good value in certain matchups.
Here are the components of Sunday’s mega parlay:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-104)
Seahawks ML (+114)
Bills -11.5 (-105)
Parlay odds: +708
For this parlay we are going with 2 favorites against the spread and 1 underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of the legs.
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-104) over Los Angeles Rams
Both of these teams have been awful this season, but the defending Super Bowl champions look to be in worse shape heading into this playoff rematch. The Rams’ offense is a massive concern at the moment, especially when you look closer at last week’s performance against a banged-up 49ers defense. Head coach Sean McVay’s game script was okay, but the Rams couldn’t sustain momentum after the 1st quarter, finishing with just a 34% success rate for the remainder of the game.
The Rams’ failures are not all Matthew Stafford’s fault, as the offensive line play has been abysmal — grading out as the 2nd worst unit in the league through 8 weeks. Los Angeles’ weak O-Line is also 25th in pass block win rate and 30th in run block win rate. Essentially this means that the Rams aren’t creating nearly enough movement up front to sustain long drives, and they are missing the explosion Odell Beckham provided at WR last year. While the vibe around the Bucs isn’t great, with Tom Brady’s personal problems muddying the waters and some important injuries hampering their defense, this Tampa offense is playing infinitely better than the Rams are right now. We will back Brady and company to rebound off the mini-bye and exact some playoff revenge.
Check out all of our complete NFL predictions for Week 9!
Seattle Seahawks ML (+114) over Arizona Cardinals
I have been on Seattle island all season long and that won’t change here. The Seahawks are checking in at 6th in DVOA per Football Outsiders, plus they have been extremely successful on early downs this season, thanks in large part to the excellent play of Geno Smith under center. This is a good, balanced offense and we now have half a season of data to support that stance. Even more encouraging is that Seattle now ranks in the top 8 in DVOA in all 4 facets over its last 4 games.
But even disregarding the Seahawks’ consistent improvement over the course of the season, a primary reason for backing Seattle here is fading Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury as a favorite — especially at home. In fact, Arizona is just 1-8 in the last 9 games in this series at home. That’s awful even for Kingsbury’s already low standards as a favorite ATS. The Cardinals are 26th in offensive DVOA and 19th in total defense DVOA, which doesn’t bode well against a prolific Seattle offense that doesn’t beat itself. And while Kyler Murray does have occasional moments of brilliance, his overall inconsistency is indicative of the Cardinals’ season at this point.
Check out our Seahawks vs Cardinals predictions
Buffalo Bills -11.5 (-105) over New York Jets
While favorites of 7 or more points have struggled this season, that trend doesn’t apply with a larger sample size. In fact, if you widen the pool to double-digit home divisional underdogs over the last 5 years, the favorite has done very well — going 12-7 against the number. Trends can be misleading and the important thing is to figure out if it’s a fair price relative to the market. It’s been 1-way traffic on this game since the line opened Bills -7.5 over the summer, but the Jets have exceeded expectations to this point in the season. However, this is a big step up in class for a young quarterback that has wilted under the pressure during his brief NFL career.
Zach Wilson is grading out as the worst signal-caller in the league under pressure this season, and he is facing a fierce Bills defense that is near the top of the league in most metrics. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen and company are looking to bounce back after a rare underwhelming game last week. Physically the Bills are better from top to bottom, and that should be enough to win out in this matchup.
Check out our Bills vs Jets predictions
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