Caleb Wilfinger
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We have arrived at Week 9 of the NFL season, and it would be a good time to take your football betting to Prophet Exchange.
If you are not familiar with sports betting exchanges, you might want to take a look at this guide to betting with Prophet Exchange in addition to exchange betting terminology before diving in and making your wagers. As the name suggests, a sports betting exchange is a platform for exchanging bets from one bettor to another without the need for a bookmaker to set the odds for each outcome. Users can either set their own odds and hope another user will be willing to take the bet, or they can peruse the market to see what odds other users are willing to make and jump on one of those offers.
For example, this Sunday the Seahawks are +110 underdogs against the Cardinals (-130) at most sportsbooks. At those ‘books, you can only bet on those 2 teams at those 2 prices. With a sports betting exchange, however, that’s not the case. You could try to get the Seahawks +140 and if someone is willing to take your offer and grab the Cardinals at -140 then a match is made.
One especially important aspect of Prophet Exchange that must be noted is against the spread odds are all available at +100 odds as opposed to the -110 juice you generally encounter at most sportsbooks. That is because in an exchange you are betting against other bettors instead of against the sportsbook; and afterwards, Prophet Exchange takes a commission from the winnings. Needless to say, making a wager at +100 instead of -110 is a huge advantage – especially adding over time.
With that, let’s take a look at some best bets for NFL Week 9 that can be made at Prophet Exchange.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110) over Los Angeles Rams
Since the season started, both of these teams have floundered, but the defending Super Bowl champions look to be in much more dire straits heading into this game. The Rams offense is a major concern at this point, especially when you look closer at last week’s performance against a banged-up Niners defense. With an extra week to prepare, head coach Sean McVay’s game script was okay — as LA ranked 9th in EPA/play in the 1st quarter with a 50% success rate. But from there, things went downhill considerably, with just a 34% success rate for the rest of the contest.
Be sure to check out our full Buccaneers vs Rams predictions
Seattle Seahawks ML (+115) over Arizona Cardinals
This line has come down a bit since it opened, but it’s still questionable to me — which might have to do with the lack of respect in the market for Seattle. This offense has been legit all season long, checking in at 6th in DVOA per Football Outsiders. Even against a stingy Giants defensive unit last week, the Seahawks generated a number of explosive plays on the ground and in the passing game. Seattle has been extremely successful on early downs this season, which is due to the excellent play of Geno Smith at quarterback. This is a consistent, well-rounded offense and we now have half a season of data to support that. And while the Seahawks defense was a major point of concern, Seattle has ranked in the top 8 in DVOA in all 4 facets over the last month.
Be sure to check out our full Seahawks vs Cardinals predictions
Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-110) over Detroit Lions
Most people are going to look at the Lions being 3.5-point home ‘dogs as a gift, but that isn’t the case. Yes, this season has been a bizarre one, but when everything is so clearly pointing toward backing the Lions, you have to wonder why the line is set as it is. The answer is clearly on defense.
To put it bluntly, the Lions don’t have a defense. They rank 30th in DVOA against the run and dead last against the pass. The Lions can’t sell out to stop the run because Aaron Rodgers will burn their secondary, and they can’t drop back into heavy coverage all the time because Aaron Jones will lead the way. The Packers, on the other hand, have a good enough secondary to handle the coverage while also selling out to stop the run. Detroit’s offense may have bounced back last week, but the Dolphins’ defense has a softer underbelly than that of Green Bay’s.
Be sure to check out our Packers vs Lions predictions
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