NFL Week 7 picks, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith: Jags will jolt the Giants

We’re one-third of the way through the regular season and some early trends are starting to emerge — the most evident being the lack of scoring and overall poor quality of play, especially on offense. Play-calling and coaching is certainly a factor, but oddsmakers agree there is a more defensive vibe with most games.

“It does feel like the defenses are a step ahead right now, but I think eventually the market will correct itself and it will balance out,” said Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor Casey Degnon. “I have no data to back this up, but it feels like teams are struggling to finish drives in the red zone more than usual.”

If you bet $100 on every under in the NFL so far this season you'd be up $1,500

— Jared Smith (@jaredleesmith) October 18, 2022

 

The data we do have says Unders are hitting at over a 60% clip, which in the gambling world is a very profitable trend. Keep an eye on an uptick in scoring and overs in the coming weeks as the market corrects itself.

Week 7 market update: How key injuries are impacting the lines

Chiefs at 49ers: Stars aligning for San Francisco

We’ve officially reached the point in the regular season where the injury report matters just as much if not more than the trends. In this particular case I think the infirmary ledger is moving in a positive direction for the Niners. OT Trent Williams, DE Nick Bosa and CB Jimmy Ward all returned to practice in some capacity this week while DT Arik Armstead, OT Mike McClinchey and CB Charvarius Ward remained sidelined.

The market has been “one-way traffic” toward Kansas City according to Degnon, who acknowledged the injury list for San Francisco and their overall poor play last week in Atlanta as reasons why the public will heavily favor the Chiefs in this spot. So let’s try to poke some holes in the public narrative and fully examine the other side of the handicap.

We’ll start on defense. The Chiefs’ secondary is still a little banged up. CB Rashad Fenton missed practice this week with a hamstring injury and rookie CB Trent McDuffie is still on IR. Safety Bryan Cook was a full participant in Thursday’s practice as he makes his way back from a concussion.

I’ll admit it’s difficult to find holes in Patrick Mahomes’ game right now, but I think it’s fair to say some of the late-game magic has been a bit lacking. Kansas City has had 10 drives with a 1-score lead, tied, or trailing in 4Q this season which have only resulted in 3 scores (2 TDs, 1 FG). The 7 non-scoring drives included 3 punts, 2 game-ending INTs, 1 missed FG and 1 fake FG fail.

There’s no denying Mahomes has fantastic overall numbers, but he has been noticeably less efficient on early downs, which in the long-run is a more predictive category than later down success. That being said, Mahomes ranks as the most efficient QB in the NFL on 3rd and 4th down this season.

Full terms:
— The #49ers get star RB Christian McCaffrey.
— The #Panthers get a 2nd round pick in 2023, a third-rounder in 2023, and a fourth-round pick in 2023. Plus, a fifth-rounder in 2024.

Massive.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 21, 2022

 

There will definitely be some buzz at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday after the Niners made a splash to acquire Chrisitan McCaffrey from the Panthers earlier this week. CMC won’t play against the Chiefs, but perhaps just his presence will be a trickle down motivational effect for RBs Jeff Wilson Jr. and Tevin Coleman who are in danger of losing their jobs.

Jimmy Garoppolo has been a feisty dog throughout his career with a 13-3 career ATS record. If you can still find a rogue 3 with the Niners I think it’s a decent bet, if not it’s best to wait until Sunday and let all the injury news fully bake into the market.

Jets at Broncos: Possible line flip

This line has taken a nosedive since opening Broncos -7.5 over the summer. After reopening Broncos -3 last week it continued to move towards the Jets and nearly flipped completely before Denver money entered the market.

“Interesting action so far, as we’ve taken sharp money on the Jets +3 and sharp money on Broncos at a PK,” added Degnon.

I respect the sharp money on both sides of this game but I keep gravitating back towards the Broncos defense as the difference-making unit. CB Patrick Surtain did not surrender a reception in coverage against the Chargers and has allowed the 2nd-fewest yards in the NFL this season. The pass rushers Baron Browning (3 pressures, sack) and Dre’Mont Jones (7 pressures, 6 hurries) are also getting home.

The Jets OL has been in a constant state of flux all season but the return of veteran OT Duane Brown has solidified the left side. On the right, last year’s first round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker has kicked out from guard to tackle with decent success over a small 2-game sample.

It’s fair to question the sustainability of Vera-Tucker at RT considering it’s not a familiar position for him. This is also a very tough matchup on the edge. I would expect the Denver pass rush to have a lot of success this week getting sustained pressure on Zach Wilson.

Russell Wilson returned to practice in a limited fashion on Wednesday and his injured hamstring is something to monitor. If the Broncos are forced to start Brett Rypien under center expect the market to move about 3 to 4 points in the Jets favor.

That being said, it’s really hard to bet on this game considering Wilson’s iffy status. I’m happy to wait until later in the week and try to quickly pick off a 2 or 2.5 with Denver once we have more solid news on his hamstring injury. I’m also fully content with laying off completely if it’s Rypien under center.

Talking Totals: Pace of play a problem in DC

Packers at Commanders: Under 41.5 (-110)

This game just screams under to me. First things first the pace numbers really stood out. Washington has the slowest neutral situation pace in the NFL and Green Bay has the 5th slowest. Then there’s the concerning news on Thursday that star WR Jahan Dotson reaggravated his hamstring injury and will likely be sidelined this week.

Carson Wentz also sits with a hand injury as Taylor Heinicke gets his first start of the season. Even with Dotson on the field I didn’t expect the Washington offense to be very explosive as Heinicke is not known for his arm strength. Without Dotson it will make things even easier for a Packers defense that was embarrassed by the Jets last week and will be looking to bounce back.

“It’s still early in the year and there are a lot of new weapons for (Aaron) Rodgers to get used to, so I’m not pressing the panic button yet,” Degnon explained. “I do like their defense and Wentz is out, so I don’t hate a slowed down low-scoring game.”

The lack of skill-position talent is definitely a big reason for Green Bay’s struggles on offense, but when situations like these go south it tends to be the HC/OC and high-priced former MVP QB that shoulder most of the blame. The numbers just have not been good for Green Bay overall this season, and Rodgers is grading out as a bottom tier QB in pushing the ball down the field.

Perhaps things will gradually improve as the season wears on, but for now I think it’s safe to say this Green Bay offense is a shell of its former self.

Teaser Time: Moving 2 AFC favorites through both key numbers

Raiders -7 to -1 vs Texans

There’s a lot to like about this spot for Vegas as both teams enter off a bye but in very different mindsets. The Raiders are in bounce-back mode after last Monday’s hard-fought primetime loss to the Chiefs while Houston is feeling fat and happy after holding the Jags to 6 points in their first win of the season.

The Texans played nearly 100% zone coverage in their matchup against Trevor Lawrence two weeks ago, who doesn’t have nearly as much tenure or experience solving zone concepts as Derek Carr. Keep an eye on the injury status of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow this week who both missed practice.

Josh Jacobs is gunning for his third straight game with a score, and faces a Houston defense that’s 21st in rushing success rate allowed. On the other side of the ball Davis Mills is grading out as a bottom-tier QB in most major metrics, most notably CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) and schedule adjusted EPA/play.

Patriots -8 to -2 vs Bears

Carrying over the theme of bad QB play from the Texans, enter Justin Fields and the Bears. Make no mistake this Chicago team has a ton of heart and has done an admirable job fighting back, with four straight games decided by one score. But the polish is just not there, which is required for strolling into Foxboro and leaving with a win.

The Patriots’ defense is quietly putting together a very nice season on defense ranking 6th in EPA/play and 1st overall in success rate against the pass. Bill Belichick has thrived historically against rookie QBs, and considering Sunday will only be Fields’ 19th career start, it’s fair to say he is still a neophyte.

The early returns say Bailey Zappe is actually a slight upgrade over Mac Jones, especially on early downs, so it really doesn’t matter to me who is under center for New England. All things being equal I would probably go with Zappe because of the potential upside.

The Bears defense has not graded out well this season and they’ve allowed almost 46% of rushing plays to be successful, which is great news for Rhamondre Stevenson who is coming off a 2-touchdown game against the Browns.

Week 7 best bet: Jaguars -3 over Giants (-110)

This will be just the 10th time in NFL history a team with a winning percentage of .800 or higher is an underdog against a team with a winning percentage of .400 or lower at this stage of the season. The prior 9 times, the team favored with a significantly worse record won all 9 games and went 8-0-1 against the number. Yikes.

“Regression has to come at some point,” Degnon said about the Giants. “If you look at the box scores and how they’re winning games, it doesn’t feel like they can do this all season. I’m buying low on the Jags so I’m with you here.”

I’ve been asked this week why the sportsbooks keep offering up tasty underdog prices on the Giants even though they keep winning outright, and the answer is all in the numbers. All of the metrics I look at every week, many of which get baked into oddsmaker power ratings, tell a story of mediocrity.

The offense is 9th in EPA/play which is solid, but Daniel Jones is bottom 5 in air yards and has the fewest 20+ yard completions of any QB in the NFL. Credit Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka for generating just enough misdirection to keep this Giants offense moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.

The improved play of the offense line has been a pleasant surprise, especially LT Andrew Thomas, who is grading out as the best tackle in the league. Rookie RT Evan Neal has also come along nicely, allowing just 1 hurry on 32 pass blocking snaps in Sunday’s win over the Ravens. Thomas was limited in practice on Wednesday with an elbow injury, which is a situation to monitor this weekend.

The Jags’ offense played well enough to beat the Colts on Sunday, but Matt Ryan made some explosive throws down the field to Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce in an exciting fourth-quarter comeback. If this week’s game plays out in a similar fashion, I just don’t think the Giants have those types of vertical threats in their passing game to scare the Jags out of playing a heavier box.

On the other side, the Jaguars OL has not graded out well this season, ranking 30th in average line yards created, but they were able to gash the Colts on Sunday with 61.3% success rate on rushing plays. The Giants defense is 31st in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency this season and 28th against the run, so I expect there to be plenty of room to roam on the ground this week for Travis Etienne, JaMycal Hasty and James Robinson.

This Week’s Portfolio

Jaguars -3 -110 (risk 2.2u at Superbook)
6-point teaser -120: Raiders -1, Bears -2 (risk 1.8u at Caesars)
Packers/Commanders u41.5 -110 (risk 1.65u at South Point)

NFL 2022 best bets: 4-2, +2.41u (23.2% ROI)

Week	Best Bet	Result	P/L
1	Bucs/Cowboys u51 -110	Win	+1.36u
2	49ers -8.5 -108	Win	+1.39u
3	Commanders +7 -110	Loss	-1.50u
4	Cardinals +1.5 -110	Win	+1.36u
5	Bucs -8 -110	Loss	-2.2u
6	Colts -1.5 -110	Win	+2.0u

NFL 2022 column: 12-11-0, -1.19u (3.4% ROI)