A meeting of two 1-4 AFC South sides doesn’t sound appealing on paper but there’s money to be made so while we are all here, let’s take a closer look at Houston’s trip to Indianapolis. Both of these teams managed to throw away potentially season-defining wins in Week 5 as the Colts surrendered a 25-9 lead in the fourth quarter to lose in overtime to Baltimore, while the Texans allowed the Patriots to snatch a 25-22 win with a walk-off field goal.
They were both gut-wrenching losses but for Indy the defeat may have stung a little more given their loftier pre-season expectations. It will be intriguing to see how they bounce back from that setback, while Houston is an interesting case study in how a team can be a lot more than the sum of its parts.
If that hasn’t got you enthralled by the prospect of this game then how about a same game parlay that pays out over 38/1?!
Check it out below and then have a look at each leg as we break it down piece by piece.
Houston Texans +10 (-110)
Over 10.5 fourth-quarter points (+100)
Mo Alie-Cox to score a touchdown (+390)
David Johnson over 20.5 receiving yards (-120)
Parlay odds: +3726
Houston Texans +10 (-110)
Everyone expected the Texans to be bad entering the season and their 1-4 record is about right for a team that was the favorite to earn the #1 draft pick. However, with the exception of the Buffalo beatdown, Houston has hung around in every game so far this year and a double-digit spread against this Colts team holds plenty of appeal.
This 24th-ranked Indianapolis team is only four places better off than Houston in team DVOA and the history of this game suggests it will be close. Only 4 of the last 20 matchups have produced a double-digit winner and this plucky Texans team has enough about it to cover this number.
The defense has been solid for the most part this year, while rookie quarterback Davis Mills enters this game off his best showing of the season, going 21 of 29 for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s facing a bad Colts defense this week, one that is struggling to cover receivers or get to the quarterback. Take Houston to stay in this one.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Over 10.5 fourth-quarter points (+100)
Finishing games has been a major issue for both these teams this season and was very aptly demonstrated with the conclusion to their Week 5 matchups. Over the last three weeks, the Texans and Colts have allowed an average of 13.7 fourth-quarter points, the highest in the league.
Neither of these offenses could get going in the final quarter last week and that’s been an issue for Houston all year but they should get opportunities against this Colts defense that can get ground down due to their lack of depth. We got 17 fourth-quarter points the last time the teams met, let’s hope for more of the same.
Mo Alie-Cox to score a touchdown (+390)
One of the unheralded fantasy gems of 2020 is making a comeback in Colts tight end Mo Alie-Cox. The 28-year-old is still trailing Jack Doyle when it comes to the snap count but Carson Wentz seems more comfortable throwing to Alie-Cox, who has enjoyed more targets than Doyle in back-to-back games.
Alie-Cox has registered 42 yards and 50 yards in his last two games, along with a pair of touchdowns, and has a good matchup this week against a Texans team that has allowed four TDs and 369 yards to tight ends this season. At nearly 4/1, Alie-Cox is a great bet on its own and as part of this same game parlay.
David Johnson over 20.5 receiving yards (-120)
This running back group of Houston’s isn’t getting it done on the ground, averaging 79.8 yards per game this year to rank 28th in the league. David Johnson’s days of running between the tackles appear long gone but he’s still carved out a role for himself amongst the Texans committee as their #1 pass-catching back.
Johnson has ranked in the top three for targets for Houston the last two weeks, catching five of the six passes that came his way in the loss to the Patriots. Mills appears comfortable working with Johnson and should continue to look for him against the Colts.
Check out the rest of our NFL Week 6 same game parlays!
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