Welcome to Week 6!
We have hit our first roadblock of the season. I thought we deserved much better than a 1-2 record last week after the Bucs jumped out to a 21-0 lead over the Falcons but couldn’t hold onto the cover. The Cowboys and Rams stayed under for the full game, but the first half featured a defensive score on the opening drive and a lengthy Cooper Kupp TD, which sank our first-half under.
The teaser was our only salvation, but overall it was a disappointing week. The good news is our best bets and the overall column is still in the black for the season — somewhere I hope to stay for the duration. Onward we go.
As per usual, our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Westgate offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays.
Week 6 market update: How QB injuries are impacting the lines
Vikings at Dolphins: The Skylar is the limit
Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are still sidelined for Miami, so it’s another week of the Skylar Thompson experience. He struggled in spot duty for the concussed Bridgewater in last Sunday’s loss to the Jets. Degnon is telling us the move from Bridgewater to Thompson is worth about 3.5 to 4 points on the betting line.
“When we closed the look-ahead line we had Dolphins -1; after the Teddy injury Sunday we opened Miami +3,” Degnon assessed. “We got up to +3.5 but then immediately saw some sharp money on the dog that got us back down to 3.”
The bigger issue right now is the Dolphins’ offensive line, which could be without Terron Armstead — who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a nagging toe injury. Overall Miami is 25th in adjusted line yards this season and not creating enough push up front to sustain a running game, especially not with a 3rd-string QB under center.
Patriots at Browns: Return of the Mac?
This line has been magnetized around the key number of 3 since opening there over the summer. The lookahead opened Pats -3.5 last week but has since been steamed back through the key number of 3 as the market anticipates another week with Bailey Zappe under center.
“I’m not sure at this point how much of an upgrade Mac is compared to Zappe,” added Degnon. “I think maybe just a half point if Jones is available to play.”
Zappe looked very comfortable in his first career start against the Lions on Sunday. New England gets another favorable matchup this week against a Brown defense that is 32nd in rush DVOA. Damien Harris returned to practice in a limited fashion after departing Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. Both Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson could be in for a big day regardless of who is under center for the Pats.
Panthers at Rams: Walker takes the reins
The Rams opened as 9.5-point favorites last week and this line has since flirted with double-digits, indicating about a 1-point adjustment with PJ Walker taking over for Baker Mayfield under center. That truly is remarkable if you take into account you’re going from the #1 overall pick in 2018 to a guy who was playing in the XFL 2 years ago.
“Not sure how much worse Walker can play than Baker at this point,” added Degnon.
Carolina’s secondary is the bigger concern here however. CB Jaycee Horn missed practice this week with tender ribs, star S Jeremy Chinn (hamstring) is still on IR and the other starting S Xavier Woods was limited in practice with a hamstring injury. The Rams’ offense has struggled to protect Matthew Stafford this season, but if there was ever a spot for them to get right, this would be it.
Talking Totals: Can Bills/Chiefs live up to the hype? Are the Pack back?
Bills at Chiefs: Will this game live up to the billing?
It’s hard not to root for points in a matchup like this, but the trend tells us that totals of 53 or higher are only going over about 45% of the time over the last 2 plus seasons. That being said, oddsmakers are still seeing a lot of one-way traffic with this game.
“Electric offenses putting up points is what I expect to see here,” Degnon commented.
Both teams have already played a high-total game this season with drastically different results. The Bills and Dolphins stayed way under the total of 54.5 when Miami won 21-19 back in Week 3. Meanwhile the Chiefs and Cardinals sailed way over 53.5 when Kansas City won 44-21 in Week 1.
I expect the Bills defense to play a ton of zone coverage in this game, which if done right can be an effective strategy against the Chiefs’ offense. Buffalo absolutely has the horses on offense to push this game into the 30s against a Kansas City defense ranked 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency. As much as I’d love to bet the over, it feels like more of a popcorn game for me as I can see the Buffalo zone slowing down the Chiefs just enough to keep this under.
Jets at Packers: Line move hinting at a Green Bay breakout?
These teams appear to be going in opposite directions, but a bullish spread move toward the Packers through the key number of 7 Packers also indirectly gives me a slight edge on the total. If the market believes Green Bay will get back on track this week, then it’s fair to say their offense will also finally gain some traction — which bodes well for anyone betting over on a relatively low total in the mid 40s.
“I think that could be an angle for this game,” Degnon explained. “Eventually a Rodgers led offense will put up points once he starts to get some familiarity with his weapons. It also seems like the Jets with Wilson are more aggressive than they were with Flacco.”
The Jets’ offense has also looked dangerous since Zach Wilson returned, especially Breece Hall. They also have the fastest pace in the NFL averaging a play every 25.31 seconds. Green Bay operates at a snail’s pace comparatively speaking, but I think it’s fair to expect some urgency this week.
Both defenses are also performing below expectations, especially the Packers, who are ranked just 22nd in schedule adjusted efficiency despite high-end talent at key positions. The Jets are in the bottom half of the DVOA rankings against the run and the pass, so it’s pick your poison for Rodgers and company.
Teaser Time: Making the best of a tricky card
Bucs -8 to -2 at Steelers
I’m going back to the well with 1 of our winning teams from last week’s teaser. Pittsburgh’s pass rush is very pedestrian without TJ Watt and it seems like the Bucs get gradually better on both sides every week as they gear up to play their best ball in January. Try not to overthink this leg and just hope for the better QB and better defense to take care of business.
Ravens -6 to pk at Giants
I really struggled with who to pair the Bucs with in the second leg, giving the Packers, Eagles and Browns strong consideration. In the end I liked the idea of piggybacking off this week’s Back to the Futures column, which advised buying the Ravens and selling the Giants.
“Even though the record says otherwise, I’m still not sold on the Giants,” added Degnon.
Please note, this falls short of being a truly ideal teaser leg since I am only moving it through 1 key number. However, there is a chance this line gets closer to 7 by Sunday — which would make it slightly more valuable.
Week 6 Best Bet: Colts -1.5 over Jaguars (-110)
The revenge vibes will be strong after the Jaguars embarrassed their division rivals 24-0 just four weeks ago, dropping Frank Reich’s ATS record against the AFC South to 11-15-1 and 1-7-1 against Jacksonville. But since then it’s been mostly downhill after a “same old Jags” type of performance on Sunday against the lowly Texans. Trevor Lawrence had the lowest CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) of any QB in the NFL and was really confused by the zone schemes from Lovie Smith.
In front of Lawrence, the Jags lost starting LG Ben Bartch to an injured knee on Sunday. The team signed a guard this week which tells me Bartch might miss some time. Jacksonville is already weak on the left side with tackle Cam Robinson playing below expectation, they also have a rookie at center who has also been inconsistent.
The numbers haven’t been pretty for Matt Ryan this season (26th in EPA+CPOE), but he was able to lead the team on a game-winning drive in OT against the Broncos, the 44th of his career, one behind Dan Marino for 5th on the all-time list. I think we will continue to see gradual improvement from the Colts’ offense as Ryan gets more comfortable in Reich’s offense.
It was encouraging to see WR Alec Pierce (8 rec, 81 yards) emerge as a weapon against the Broncos, Michal Pittman (5 rec, 59 yards) also showed his upside. Those two combined for 17 of the 36 targets to Colts pass catchers last Thursday and I can see them having success again this week against a Jags defense that has been trending down over the last 2 weeks.
Keep an eye on the injury status of LB Shaq Leonard (concussion) and RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) who could return after missing last Thursday’s game in Denver. DE Kwity Paye (ankle) and C Ryan Kelly (hip) were nicked up in the game against the Broncos and their status should also be monitored this week. Paye is especially key in defending against the Jags run game.
Week 6 portfolio:
Colts -1.5 -110 (risk 2.2u at Stations)
6-point teaser: Bucs -2, Ravens pk -120 (risk 1.8u at Caesars)
Jets/Packers o45 -110 (risk 1.65u at South Point)
NFL 2022 best bets: 3-2, +0.41u (5.0% ROI)
|
Week |
Best Bet |
Result |
P/L |
|
Bucs/Cowboys u51 -110 |
Win |
+1.36u |
|
|
49ers -8.5 -108 |
Win |
+1.39u |
|
|
Commanders +7 -110 |
Loss |
-1.50u |
|
|
Cardinals +1.5 -110 |
Win |
+1.36u |
|
|
Bucs -8 -110 |
Loss |
-2.2u |
NFL 2022 column: 11-9, +0.26u (0.9% ROI)
|
Week |
Record |
P/L |
|
2-0 |
+3.36u |
|
|
2-3 |
-1.75u |
|
|
4-3 |
+0.83u |
|
|
1-1 |
-0.14u |
|
|
1-2 |
-2.05u |
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