NFL Week 5 picks, predictions & best bets from NFL expert Jared Smith: Trust the Bucs to bounce back

Welcome to Week 5!

Arizona got our best bet back in the win column last week but our teaser fell painfully short on the Broncos. Just one point was the difference between a profitable week and a small loss. It truly is a game of inches.

Thankfully the column is still in the black for the season, and we’ve hit 3 of our first 4 “best bets” which is a trend I will look to continue this week.

As per usual, our oddsmaker pal Casey Degnon from Westgate offers his expertise as we highlight some of the most impactful injuries, trends and key matchups to watch this week. Please check my portfolio at the bottom for the official column plays.

Be sure to check out our NFL Week 5 picks for EVERY game!

Week 5 market update: Games with key injuries that could impact the lines on Sunday

Dolphins at Jets: Teddy takes control

Teddy Bridgewater is next man up for Miami under center, which is about a 2.5 to 3-point move according to Degnon. You will hear a lot about his stellar ATS record this week which is 43-21 overall, but if you take a closer look “Teddy Covers” is only 16-11 against the number as a favorite.

“I don’t think his current ATS record matters here, but I don’t expect a big drop-off in offensive production with all the weapons he has at his disposal,” added Degnon.

Speaking of those weapons, keep an eye on Jaylen Waddle’s status heading into Sunday. The speedy WR missed practice Wednesday with a groin injury but got in a limited session on Thursday. Meanwhile OT Terron Armstead (toe) and CB Xavien Howard (groin) were absent from practice both days. If all 3 are forced to sit I can see this line getting back down to 3.

Lions at Patriots: Zappe hour in question

The QB situation in New England is much murkier. Brian Hoyer (concussion) missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday but Mac Jones (ankle) returned in a limited fashion. If Jones can’t go, it would likely be rookie Bailey Zappe who got some valuable reps at Lambeau Field last Sunday and almost led the Pats to an unlikely upset.

“Zappe looked more than capable in Lambeau last week, so I don’t think there is a huge difference between the two based on how New England plays offense,” added Degnon. “We took sharp money on the Pats -3 which moved us to -3.5 (even). This tells me the bettor is not concerned with who is playing QB based on how bad Detroit has looked on defense so far this year.”

The Lions have their own injury concerns on offense to deal with. RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder/ankle) and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Neither played last week but it didn’t affect the Lions offense as much as expected thanks to unexpected outbursts from Jamaal Williams and T.J. Hockenson. I expect a much different vibe for the Detroit offense this week on the road against a solid defense, especially if Swift and St. Brown can’t go.

Steelers at Bills: Pickett fence for Pittsburgh

It’s rare that a game involving Josh Allen is not the biggest QB storyline, but instead Kenny Pickett steals the spotlight. I liked what I saw from the rookie on Sunday and oddsmakers believe the Steelers offense should improve.

“To me Pickett is a better QB right now even though we haven’t seen a lot of him,” Degnon added. “He had 3 INT’s but 1 was a Hail Mary and another hit off his WR’s hands. You can tell he is not scared to take shots and try to stretch the field so for now I would say the line wasn’t really affected but going forward I think we will see a small upgrade on the Steelers power rating.”

Buffalo is still very banged up defensively with 5 key players on the injury report this week. FS Jordan Poyer (ribs), CB Christian Benford (hand) and LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) all missed practice on Wednesday. DT Ed Oliver (ankle) and DT Jordan Phillips (hamstring) were both limited. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pickett played better than expected on Sunday.

Get our NFL Week 5 best bets — we’re 18-6 this season!

Talking Totals: An Under-whelming matchup in the NFC

Cowboys at Rams: Under 21 1st half (-110)

I see this game playing out a lot like the Rams and Niners did on Monday night minus the absurd play by Deebo Samuel. I also think Cooper Rush is a downgrade from Jimmy G and the Cowboys defense should have a field day in the backfield against a battered Rams offensive line that will be without starting center Coleman Shelton who suffered a high-ankle sprain in the loss to San Francisco.

“The market seems to agree with you,” added Degnon. “On our look ahead line we took sharp money on under 46 and then on Sunday we re-opened 45 and are down to 43.”

Dallas leads the NFL in pass rush win rate this season and both teams and both defenses have been fantastic against the run. I just don’t see a lot of line yards being created in this game, so unless the scoring comes from fluky plays on special teams and defense, I like the pace to trend under.

To negate some of the flukiness, I will bet the first-half under instead of the full game. The trend also backs this up as the 1st half under is a combined 7-1 for these teams on the season.

Teaser Time: Bounce-back for the Bucs and committing to the Commanders

Bucs -8 to -2

I will dive into this game much deeper in the next section, but know that it fits all the criteria of an ideal teaser leg minus a slightly elevated total.

Commanders +2.5 to +8.5

Mike Vrabel is 15-21-1 (41.7%) against the spread as a favorite in his career compared to 20-12 (62.5%) as an underdog. I already hate myself for wagering more money on Carson Wentz, but there’s a feel-good element to this game with the return of RB Brian Robinson Jr. who suffered a gunshot wound to his leg just a few weeks ago.

“I also think Rivera hears the murmurs about his job being in jeopardy which could give the Commanders some extra juice,” added Degnon. “We took sharp money at +2.5 and are down to +1.5 on that game right now.”

I’m not brave enough to bet Washington straight up, but this is truly an ideal teaser leg with a home underdog moving through both key numbers in a low-total game.

Be sure to check out our full Titans vs Commanders prediction

Week 5 Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 (-110)

Tom Brady owns the Falcons. Obviously the 28-3 comeback in Super Bowl LI is the main event, but overall Brady is 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in his career vs. Atlanta. The only non-cover was a game in 2020 when the Falcons jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead at home, only to allow Brady and the Bucs to storm back with a 31-10 second half to win by 4, failing to cover a 6-point spread.

All of those trends are fun, but the core of his game also presents a matchup problem for Atlanta. For the most part Tampa’s defense has played well this season, 5th in EPA/play and 8th against the pass, but they haven’t graded out well against the run, which is surprising considering that has historically been the strength of their unit. Todd Bowles’ defense is allowing nearly 47% of runs to be graded successful, the 7th worst percentage in the NFL.

Unfortunately the Falcons are in no position to take advantage this week after placing Cordarrelle Patterson on IR with a knee injury. Patterson has accounted for 50% of the team’s rushing yards this season and has been a dangerous weapon in all phases of the game out of the backfield. In steps rookie Tyler Allgeier who showed well against the Browns gaining 84 yards on 10 carries, but now he must carry the load in his first career start against a historically difficult front to run on.

That also means more of this game will fall on the shoulders of Marcus Mariota, who came on strong but has trended down the past two weeks as more of this Arthur Smith offense gets put on tape for defenses to digest. Mariota completed just 7 of 19 passes for 139 yards with a -20 CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) against Cleveland.

The Bucs are getting significantly healthier on offense and Brady looked a little more in sync with a new cast of characters around him at receiver in garbage time against the Chiefs. Atlanta generates a league-worst 11% pressure rate, so Tom should have plenty of time to pick apart this bottom-feeder defense.

Another factor to consider here is the number, which opened with the Bucs -11.5 earlier this summer. I like getting a full field goal discount through a secondary key number after two straight Tampa losses and a misleading Falcons win over the Browns.

Check out our full Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons predictions

Week 4 portfolio:

Bucs -8 -110 (risk 2.2u at South Point) *Best Bet*
6-point teaser -120: Bucs -2, Commanders +8.5 (risk 1.5u at Caesars)
Cowboys/Rams u21 1H -110 (risk 1.1u at South Point)

NFL 2022 best bets: 3-1, +2.61u (43.50% ROI)

NFL 2022 column: 10-7, +2.31u (9.3% ROI)