Andrew Ortenberg
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The first few weeks of the 2021 NFL season have been epic. Now we’ll be treated to another full slate this coming Sunday for Week 4. We have an interesting NFC vs AFC clash here as the Minnesota Vikings host the Cleveland Browns. It’s one of the best games of the day. What better way to make this game even more exciting than by betting a same game parlay? We also have thoughts on the side and total for every Week 4 matchup, of course, which you can view in our NFL picks tab.
But let’s dive into this same game parlay:
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 (+230)
Nick Chubb over 78.5 rushing yards (-114)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1001
We have a simple 2-leg same game parlay which pays out just north of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. We get a huge odds boost by combining the Vikings alt spread with Chubb cashing his over, when I don’t think it conflicts too much. Let’s break it down:
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 (+230)
To start this same game parlay off, I’m expecting a Vikings win. Minnesota might be 1-2, but that’s misleading. They were driving for the win in overtime on the road in Week 1, when a controversial call on an alleged Dalvin Cook fumble cost them the game. Then in Week 2 they went on the road to Arizona and played a great game, but missed a 37-yard field goal as time expired that would’ve given them the win.
Last week, they beat the Seahawks by double digits. This team should be 3-0, and now is the time to buy-low while you still can. The Browns’ last two games have come against the Texans and Bears, arguably the two most pitiful teams in the league right now. Playing a team that actually has a pulse, on the road, is going to be a much stiffer challenge for Cleveland. With their offensive line banged up and without guys like Jarvis Landry and Greg Newsome, I don’t think they’ll rise to the occasion.
Nick Chubb over 78.5 rushing yards (-114)
We get a huge odds boost by combining this with the first leg of our same game parlay. But I don’t think it conflicts much. The general assumption is that Chubb rushing for more yards means the Browns are in positive game-script. But that’s not necessarily true. This game has a total in the 50s, and both defenses have struggled at times this season. It could easily turn into a shootout in which both offenses have a lot of success.
Chubb could break one or two big runs to get us over the hump here, while Baker Mayfield and the passing game struggle to produce touchdowns. The Vikings are giving up 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season, the fifth-worst mark in the league. Chubb has gone over this total in all three of his games this year, including the Browns’ loss to the Chiefs. Him getting to 80 yards certainl
What is a Same Game Parlay?
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