Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 4 of the NFL season kicked off on Thursday night with the Bengals getting the best of the Miami Dolphins. The remaining slate also offers plenty of intrigue, with more division rivalry games and a marquee matchup on Sunday Night Football, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Here is this week’s mega parlay:
Vikings -5.5 alternate spread (+122)
Cardinals ML (-102)
Ravens ML (+136)
Parlay odds: +937
For this parlay, we are going with one favorite against the spread on an alternate number and two underdogs on the money line. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
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Minnesota Vikings -5.5 alternate spread (+122) over New Orleans Saints
This is an interesting spot for the Vikings, who just overturned a 10-point deficit to edge past the Lions in the final minute of the game. It’s hard to get a proper read on what this Minnesota team is right now, but the Vikings’ offensive talent is undeniable. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen have both seen plenty of targets while KJ Osborn has also established himself as a receiving threat for defenses to worry about. With Dalvin Cook still poised to be a key contributor out of the backfield, the Vikings can put it all together and be a force if Kirk Cousins remains consistent.
Consistency has been hard to come by for the Saints. Putting points on the board has been hard for this New Orleans team over the past couple of weeks, and that was before Michael Thomas was ruled out and Jameis Winston was listed as doubtful. Alvin Kamara has not been able to get going and the lack of consistent offense for the Saints has been concerning. Ultimately, this game feels like a case where the Vikings’ offense will be the best unit on the field. With Winston’s status in doubt and the rest of the Saints’ offense stuck in the mud, look for Minnesota to win convincingly in this one.
Be sure to check out our full Vikings vs Saints predictions
Arizona Cardinals ML (-102) over Carolina Panthers
This is a really good spot for the Cardinals, who were favored by over 3 points on the look-ahead line during the summer. Arizona is the better team and should be favored against a Panthers team that is floundering. Even with a win last week, Baker Mayfield is still one of the most inefficient quarterbacks in the league. In fact, Mayfield ranks 32nd out of 33 qualifying QBs in EPA per play, plus completion percentage over expectation this season. The Panthers quarterback is also at the bottom of the league in success rate and in the bottom 10 of all quarterbacks in air yards. Even though Arizona’s defense hasn’t been great, the Cardinals shouldn’t have to worry about Mayfield’s downfield passing. After all, he’s barely completing over 50% of his passes.
On the other side, Kyler Murray has performed better in recent weeks, specifically against pressure. But even if Murray struggles, Arizona should still stay in this game thanks to its defense and the ineptitude from Mayfield and Carolina’s offense. Then there’s also the matter of fading Matt Rhule. Rhule is just 11-25 as a head coach thus far, and a staggering 1-25 in games when his defense allows 17 points or more. I’m expecting a decent offensive showing from Arizona on Sunday and I feel comfortable backing them at this price.
Be sure to check out our full Cardinals vs Panthers predictions
Baltimore Ravens ML (+136) over Buffalo Bills
There is serious potential for fireworks in this matchup. Both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are playing at an extremely high level, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday. However, what gives the Ravens the edge for me is the Bills’ significant injuries on defense. Buffalo will be missing numerous pieces in its secondary, which doesn’t bode well against Jackson, who is playing like the MVP of the league at the moment. The Ravens quarterback is graded as the most efficient QB in the league on early downs this season, and he is accounting for nearly 90% of Baltimore’s offense to this point.
The case could easily be made that this Ravens team should be 3-0, and Jackson’s ability to pick up chunks of yardage with his legs also presents serious problems for a reeling Bills defense. Then there is the matter of Buffalo’s inability to close out quality opposition in close games, which reared its ugly head last week. If the Bills are locked in a dogfight on the road, I’d lean toward Jackson and Baltimore picking up a win in this massive AFC tilt.
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