Andrew Ortenberg
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The 2021 NFL season got underway last week with an epic Week 1. Now we’ll be treated to another full slate this coming Sunday. An interesting divisional game featuring two young quarterbacks will take place here as the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills. What better way to make this AFC East rivalry game even more exciting than by betting a same game parlay? We also have thoughts on the side and total for every Week 2 matchup, of course, which you can view in our NFL picks tab.
Buffalo Bills -3.5 (-105)
Josh Allen to record 400+ passing yards (+750)
Same Game Parlay odds: +2523
We have a simple 2-leg same game parlay which pays out just north of 25/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
Buffalo Bills -3.5 (-105)
There are a lot of reasons to believe in the Bills here. They’re coming off a loss to the Steelers as big favorites, but the final score in that game doesn’t tell the full story. I was actually really impressed with how their defense played, as they held Najee Harris to 45 yards on 16 carries and held Ben Roethlisberger under 190 yards. A blocked punt return touchdown is the only reason Pittsburgh won that game. The final score in Miami’s Week 1 win over the Patriots also doesn’t tell the full story.
The Dolphins had less than 250 yards of total offense in that game, they just benefitted from a couple of poorly-timed Pats fumbles. Buffalo is coming off a fluke loss while the Dolphins are coming off a fluke win. I know what that’s a recipe for. The Dolphins let Mac Jones look quite comfortable in his first career start last week, so they could get carved up by Allen here. We know Allen has a great history against Miami head coach Brian Flores. There’s a good chance this one isn’t close.
Josh Allen to record 400+ passing yards (+750)
For a bet to be profitable long-term at +700 odds, it needs to cash fewer than 1/8 times. Allen got to 400 yards twice last year, so on the surface this line seems about right as a standalone prop. The reason I love it for this same game parlay is it gets us a huge odds boost. FanDuel’s system is treating it like Allen getting to 400 correlates against the Bills covering, when I don’t think that’s the case at all. Sometimes racking up big yardage can mean you’re playing from a deficit, but certainly not always. Buffalo won both of the games Allen threw for 400+ in last year, most recently beating the Seahawks by 10 in a game Allen threw for 415 in.
Like I alluded to above, Allen has a pattern of success against Flores. In four career starts against a Flores defense over the past two years, Allen has averaged 7.8 yards per attempt or better every time. Last year he actually only had one real start against the Dolphins, since he didn’t play the second half in Week 17. In that one game? He threw for 417 yards and four touchdowns in a Bills win. The Dolphins want to send a lot of blitzes, and that’s something Allen excels at beating. The matchup here is appealing.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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