It was a successful Week 1 for our best bets column as we nailed both teasers and cashed a relatively sweat-free under on SNF. I can’t promise smooth sailing like that for the entire season, but as long as we stay consistent with our process, I feel confident we will turn a profit come February.
Week 2 market update: Finding value after Week 1 overreactions
My favorite trend of the week comes courtesy of our new pal ClevTA, who is doing a fantastic job in his new role with Pickswise as an NFL analyst. Teams coming off a blowout in Week 1 (defined by a win of 21 points or more) are just 2-9 ATS in Week 2 since 2017. Last season alone, the Cardinals, Saints and Eagles all failed to cover in Week 2 after dominating performances in the opener. All of it fits the narrative of the market overreacting to a dominant Week 1 performance and then correcting itself in Week 2.
This trend only officially applies to the Chiefs and Bills this week, but if you look closely there are other solid buy low opportunities around the market, especially if you’re willing to lock up portions of your bankroll for longer periods of time. I highlighted a few in this week’s “Back to the Futures” column.
In case you’re curious, the inverse of this trend does not carry the same weight, as teams who got blown out in Week 1 are only 19-20-2 ATS in Week 2 since 2005. However they did go 2-1 last year as the Packers and Seahawks both bounced back from early blowouts and covered the number in their following game. This week it’s the Cardinals and Rams who carry the dubious distinction.
Talking Totals: Predicting points in Detroit and Philadelphia
Last week our best bet was a total, so it didn’t make sense to include this segment. However, I promised you all in my season preview last month I would make a more concerted effort on handicapping totals, so you can expect at least one every week, this week I’ve got two to share.
Commanders at Lions: Over 48.5 (-110)
We’re putting our faith in Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. Scary I know, but if you take a look at last week’s numbers there is reason for optimism. Wentz looked very comfortable in his new digs, chucking 4 touchdowns, 2 to rookie WR Jahan Dotson, who looks to be a dynamic weapon in space. The Commanders had the 7th highest offensive grade of any team in Week 1 according to PFF, and I don’t expect the Lions defense, which was shredded by Philly, to provide much resistance.
“The best part about Wentz is he’s either throwing TDs or INTs which is usually good for the over,” said Westgate Senior Risk Supervisor Casey Degnon. “The Jags scored 22 last week even with a missed FG and a couple unsuccessful red zone trips. Lions and Eagles combined for 70-plus, I like where your heads at here.”
Wentz’s erratic play is definitely a point of concern with finishing drives, but it’s obvious OC Scott Turner feels much more comfortable pushing the ball down the field and utilizing Wentz’s arm strength, something Washington couldn’t do in prior seasons under Turner with the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback.
The one fly in the ointment this week could be the injury status of D’Andre Swift, who missed Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury. Center Frank Ragnow (groin, foot) was also held back. Those are obviously key injuries to monitor heading into this weekend considering how heavily the Lions offense relies on their ground game, which gained 6.5 yards per rush against the Eagles in Week 1.
Vikings at Eagles: Over 49.5 (-110)
This matchup features two of the most impressive looking offenses in Week 1, especially the Vikings who impressed in their blowout win over the Packers. If you watched “Pickswise Playbook” this week, both Lauren Jbara and Tank Williams banged the drum for this over, and made some very compelling arguments.
The one thing I’ll add here is the Eagles defense being a little bit overhyped, as both Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave got shredded up the middle against the Lions ground attack. Philly DC Jonathan Gannon’s scheme is still a bit unsettled on the interior, which is good news for Dalvin Cook and Kirk Cousins.
We’ll have NFL picks and predictions for EVERY game this season!
Teaser Time: Pairing an NFC South underdog with 2 AFC North favorites
Browns -6.5 to -0.5 vs Jets
I don’t see how the Jets move the ball effectively in this game considering their putrid pass blocking grades against the Ravens. While Baltimore’s defense is solid, Cleveland had the top pass rush grade of any team in Week 1 according to PFF and will present a much stiffer challenge this week with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney on the edge.
Jets LT George Fant graded out okay against the Ravens, but 4th-round rookie RT Max Mitchel was a disaster, and both guys allowed multiple pressures. The right interior of the Jets offensive line is also subpar with Laken Tomlinson, who graded out very poorly in both the pass and run. Former first-round pick LG Elijah Vera-Tucker was the lone bright spot, but I don’t think that will be enough to keep Joe Flacco upright, especially considering his lack of mobility.
The part of this handicap I don’t like is the Browns offense scoring enough to cover the number. Jacoby Brissett had a negative EPA/play against the Panthers in Week 1 despite a solid run game. Nick Cubb generated a 52% success rate against a solid Carolina front, but the Jets run defense held the Ravens to just 3.0 yards per carry last week and that seems to be the strength of their unit.
The first line move after reopening was also towards the underdog from +6.5 to +6, so there was definitely some early support for the Jets in the market. For those reasons, I wouldn’t lay the full 6 with Cleveland, but I also can’t see Flacco marching into Cleveland and leaving with a win.
Bengals -7.5 to -1.5 at Cowboys
I see a big matchup edge for the Bengals WRs against a Cowboys secondary that allowed Tom Brady to record a 70% success rate on early down passing plays in Week 1. That is noteworthy because Cincinnati’s offense had the 7th highest EPA/play on early down passing plays over the back half of last season, which is when Joe Burrow and company really got rolling.
CB Anthony Brown is the biggest liability for Dallas, allowing Brady to record 6 completions on 8 targets for 108 yards, including a 48-yard deep shot to Julio Jones. If I’m Zac Taylor, the goal is to try and get Brown matched up 1-on-1 with Ja’Marr Chase in some way shape or form and use the play-action to push the ball down the field on 1st and 2nd down.
Keep an eye on the status of WR Tee Higgins, who is reportedly trending up after leaving Sunday’s game with a concussion. It will be hard for Burrow to play worse than he did against the Steelers, and as long as he can limit turnovers he should have some success in the air.
I have no idea what we’re going to get from Cooper Rush, in for the injured Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys offensive line will also be a bit thin after losing LG Connor McGovern to an ankle injury. The Bengals might not be able to cover 7.5, but I feel very confident in them leaving Jerry’s World with a victory and getting back to .500 on the season.
Saints +2.5 to +8.5 vs Bucs
There is a case to be made for this being the best teaser spot of the week, especially when you consider the Bucs’ injury concerns on offense and Tom Brady’s struggles against the Saints. Since arriving in Tampa, Brady is 0-4 ATS and has been outscored 117-53 in those 4 regular season meetings, including an ugly 9-0 loss last year on SNF when Tampa was a double-digit favorite.
I like what I saw from the Saints offense last week, especially in the 2nd half, and if anyone can have success on the ground against this sturdy Bucs front, it’s New Orleans and Taysom Hill. I was close to leaving this game off my card this week, as there are a lot of options to choose from, but Casey gave us some very sage advice about how he approaches the teaser market every week.
“If I have to narrow it down I usually try to pick a small home dog (+1.5 to +2.5) with a lower total where points will be at a premium and get them above a touchdown and change,” added Degnon.
Check below to see how I’m structuring my teaser card this week as just like last week we have three legs to choose from.
Week 2 Best Bet: 49ers -8.5 -108 (risk 1.5u at FanDuel)
To me this game is the ideal “buy low, sell high” opportunity on the board in Week 2.
The 49ers melted in the second half against the Bears and Trey Lance did not look the part, grading out as the second worst QB in Week 1 just behind Dak Prescott. Lance’s -19% CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) was the worst mark of his career. The good news is, he’ll be back at home this week facing a Seahawks defense on short rest and without their best player Jamaal Adams.
Despite holding the Broncos to just 16 points on Monday, the analytics were ugly as Seattle’s defense has the 4th lowest EPA/play of any team in Week 1. On the other side, I loved what I saw from Geno Smith and his resurgence could absolutely wreck this handicap, but I’ll take my chances that he comes back down to Earth a bit this week against a very talented 49ers defense that was pushed around by the Bears.
“I definitely lean SF here,” added Degnon. “I’m not buying Seattle stock after an emotional win. I expect the Niners to have success on the ground, limit Geno, and win a low scoring game. Not sure if I’m laying the points yet but it’s Niners or pass.”
I appreciate Casey bringing me back down to Earth a little bit on this pick, as it is a lot of points to lay for an offense that showed very little in Week 1. For that reason, I will be risking the same amount (1.5 units) on this bet as I will on all of the other bets on my card this week.
Week 2 portfolio:
49ers -8.5 -108 (risk 1.5u at FanDuel) *Best bet*
Lions/Commanders o48.5 -110 (risk 1.5u at South Point)
Vikings/Eagles o49.5 -110 (risk 1.5u at SuperBook)
6-point teaser -120: Saints +8.5, Bengals -1.5 (risk 1.5u at Caesars)
6-point teaser -120: Saints +8.5, Browns -0.5 (risk 1.5u at Caesars)
NFL best bets column season records:
Best bets: 1-0 +1.36u
Sides: 0-0, +0.00u
Totals: 1-0, +1.36u
Teasers: 2-0, +2.00u
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