NFL Picks

For the first time in a long time, arrows are pointing up on the Chargers’ future. Although LAC has many of the same stars from previous campaigns, including their burgeoning QB, Justin Herbert, this is the first year that Jim Harbaugh led the team. Harbaugh, at this point, is one of the more famous figures in football, for good reason. After leading the Michigan Wolverines to their first championship in 39 years, Harbaugh has turned around the Chargers, a franchise that’s been cyclically shooting itself in the foot for over a decade. Under Harbaugh, no defense allows fewer points (17.7 per game), and the Bolts have a balanced offense with a top-10 passing attack in a slew of statistical categories (like their 9th-ranked 7.6 yards per pass).

Last year, the Texans were in a very similar situation to what the Chargers are experiencing this season. CJ Stroud was the talk of the town, a scintillating rookie thrower who seemed too poised for his age, with a new coach and above-average defense that instantly flipped Houston’s brand. This year, it hasn’t been as impressive. Some of their statistics are still exceptional, like their ability to limit explosive plays (they’re 4th in opponent yards per play), and of course, Stroud still has arm talent that most young QBs would die for. But it’s still different. The Texans are not winning the big games any more. They lost by margin to Minnesota, Kansas City and Baltimore, and were lucky to catch Detroit on a day where the Lions committed 5 turnovers. They still lost by a field goal.

From a gambling perspective, the Texans aren’t fooling anyone. They’re just 7-8-2 ATS this season, with most of their covers delivered against programs like Tennessee, Dallas and New England; aka bottom feeders. The Chargers’ gambling records also check out– they’re one of the best in the NFL (12-5 ATS), and they’re even better as a road favorite (5-1 ATS). Everything about Houston’s season has been underwhelming, and we would be crazy to believe that they’ll suddenly change just because it’s a home game on Saturday. The Chargers are the better team and we have little doubt that Harbaugh will have them as prepared as they’ve ever been to win and cover.

Chargers vs Texans prediction: Chargers -3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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Saturday’s AFC Wildcard matchup between the Chargers and Texans will come down to a battle of elite arms, which is why we think there won’t be as many points as you might imagine. Wait, what? You heard us right. Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud are among the best quarterbacks in the world, but neither will have an easy matchup in their opening playoff game. By now, if you don’t know the Chargers are one of the NFL’s premier defenses then you haven’t been paying attention, but we’ll remind you anyway. They’re top-5 in almost every category that matters, including #1 marks in opponent points per game, red-zone touchdown rate and touchdowns per game. Against the pass they’re particularly stingy, top 8 or better in interceptions, pass yards allowed and sack rate, and they’re 2nd in opponent yards per pass (just 6.7). Stroud will surely have his hands full against a defense he hasn’t seen yet this season, which only makes the matchup tougher.

The same can be said on the other side. Houston’s defense breaks at times, like their tendency to suddenly capitulate in the red zone (ranked 27th), but they’re mostly dependable and effective. No program permits a lower completion rate to opposing QBs (58.84%) and they’re 2nd in interceptions, 6th in opponent pass yards per game (210) and 5th in opponent yards per pass (6.8). The Chargers prefer to run the ball anyway (10th in rush play percentage), but it’s unlikely that either defense will allow too many (if any) explosive plays. The total for this battle opened at 44 and has been steadily moving down; we completely agree with this assertion. While highlight-reel quarterbacks may be standing behind center, it’s the defenses that make these 2 programs so fierce. We believe those defenses will take over and slow this game down tremendously, especially with the added pressure of the postseason.

Chargers vs Texans prediction: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Pittsburgh Steelers head south to Baltimore for a Wild Card matchup this Saturday against the Ravens in the third meeting between these two teams this season. There’s no denying that these two teams have been heading in different directions toward the end of the season, as Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight while Baltimore has won 4 in a row, but I expect something different on Saturday night. The Steelers have their backs against the wall, but they’ve had success against this Ravens squad in the past, shown by their 8-2 record in their previous 10 meetings. The biggest key for Pittsburgh will be getting the ball to WR George Pickens and slowing down the Ravens’ rushing attack.

Everything is going right for this Baltimore squad, but QB Lamar Jackson hasn’t been stellar in the postseason. The two-time MVP is just 2-4 in the postseason while posting a 6-6 TD-INT ratio. Additionally, last year’s Wild Card win against the Texans marked the first time Jackson and the Ravens have won by 10+ against a team in the playoffs. Baltimore will plan to run the ball early and often, but I expect the Steelers to stack the box and make Jackson beat them with his arm. The Louisville product is just 3-5 against Pittsburgh in his career, carrying an 8-9 TD-INT ratio.

I expect the the Ravens to advance to next week’s Divisional Round, but 10 points is too many for this rivalry. Baltimore’s 17-point win in Week 16 marked the first time either team has won by 10+ in 10 meetings, so it was an outlier. Additionally, the Steelers should get George Pickens going early, as he had just 1 catch for 0 yards in Week 18 and dominated the Ravens when he played them earlier this year, going for 89 yards, 8 receptions and 1 TD. The Steelers are 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season, and I expect them to keep this game close or pull off a backdoor cover in this one.

Steelers vs Ravens prediction: Pittsburgh +10 (-115) available at the time of publishing, playable at that number.

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The second half of my Steelers vs Ravens predictions goes hand in hand with the first because Pittsburgh needs to turn this into an ugly game if they want any chance of winning. First off, the Steelers offense has been dreadful the last 4 weeks, as they’ve scored just 14.3 PPG. Additionally, they put up just 17 and 16 points in their two meetings with Baltimore this season. I think they will find more success throwing the ball than running, but they will need to utilize their rushing attack to keep Lamar and the Ravens offense off the field. Additionally, it feels like Mike Tomlin is close to sitting on the hot seat, as Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight playoff games under his leadership, and I expect him to have a fantastic game plan.

On the flip side, this Ravens offense has been humming during their 4-game winning streak, as they’ve scored 33.8 PPG in that span. However, I can’t stop preaching how poorly Lamar Jackson has played in the playoffs AND against this Steelers squad. In his 8 career starts against the Steelers, the Ravens have put up just 21.5 PPG, and in his 6 playoff starts, Baltimore has averaged a dismal 16 PPG. I don’t expect an offensive explosion until Lamar and the Ravens show me otherwise.

With Jackson under center, the Ravens haven’t played in a postseason contest with more than 44 points. Additionally, 8 of the last 10 meetings between these squads finished Under. I expect a fiery Steelers defense to come out and fight for their lives, and this game should finish in the high teens for both squads as we cruise Under.

Steelers vs Ravens prediction: Under 44 (-110) available at the time of publishing, playable at that number.

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The NFL playoffs are an occasion where narratives dominate the discourse. From mainstream sports television shows to social media-based gambling content, most of the discussion around each game this weekend is largely going to center around narratives and popular opinion. With that said, much like the NBA playoffs have proven to us for years now, there are plenty of tried and true NFL postseason talking points that do align with what the data has borne out over the past quarter-century. One of those playoff trends that has consistently cashed over the years is fading the rookie quarterback who is making his first playoff start against a quarterback with playoff experience, and that’s part of why I’ll be laying the points with the Bills in this AFC Wild Card round matchup in Buffalo on Sunday. Per Evan Abrams, rookie quarterbacks making their first playoff start against a QB with playoff experience are just 19-37-1 against the spread (34%) since 2002. Furthermore, when those less experienced QBs play on the road, they are just 12-19-1 against the number. Couple that strong historical data with the fact that this is just massive step up in class for Denver in one of the toughest places to play across the league and I can’t get behind a wager with the Broncos at anything below double digits.

Denver has been a great story this season, but it’s important to remember that the Broncos had just 2 wins against playoff teams in the regular season, and 1 of those wins was over the Kansas City backups last Sunday. This was a team that got demolished by the Ravens earlier in the season and just lost important, playoff-like games against the Bengals and Chargers in recent weeks. Now, Bo Nix is taking on a Bills defense that is getting healthy at the right time, particularly in the secondary with the return of their starting safeties and All-Pro slot corner Taron Johnson. The Bills’ weakness as a defense is against the run, but that’s not at all what Denver does well, relying instead on the short and intermediate passing game to work its way methodically down the field. With that in mind, Sean McDermott’s scheme should actually be effective in limiting the scoring opportunities for Denver’s offense. On the other side, Josh Allen and most of the Buffalo offense got some much-needed rest a week ago, and this is a unit that has essentially been scoring 30+ points at will over the second half of the season, regardless of opponent. Since the Wild Card round expanded to 7 teams, five of the eight #7 seeds have lost by at least 12 points in this round. Additionally, favorites of at least 9 points in the Wild Card Round are 13-3 against the spread, which can only point me in the direction of the Bills here. Buffalo was just laying a full 10 points to a similarly power-rated Pittsburgh team in last season’s Wild Card matchup at home, so let’s take a bit of a discount on the Bills to lay the lumber this week.

Broncos vs Bills prediction: Bills -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.5.

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As mentioned previously, the Broncos have struggled mightily when stepping up in class this season, checking in with a point differential of -47 against teams above .500 on the year. Much of that is due to the fact that Denver’s offense is not built to generate a ton of explosive plays and score quickly. Bo Nix is not typically at his best when throwing the ball downfield, and I doubt that Sean Payton will even be given the chance to dial something up given how often Sean McDermott employs 2-high safety looks in order to take away the explosive play. Denver’s offense is 22nd in success rate and 18th in EPA per rush on the season (SumerSports), so having success on a down-to-down basis could also prove to be difficult against a Bills defense that is trending up.

On the other side, Buffalo runs the ball at one of the highest rates in the league, and I don’t anticipate that Joe Brady’s unit will want to pull out all of the stops this week, given that Buffalo likely has the Ravens on deck in what will be one of the most anticipated games of the postseason. Let’s get to the window with the Under on Sunday.

Broncos vs Bills prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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The Sunday night primetime matchup on Super Wild Card Weekend pits the Washington Commanders against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Just like last year, Tampa Bay took the back door into the playoffs by winning the moribund NFC South. Unlike last year, the Bucs don’t get to face an opponent that is spiraling out of control — as the Philadelphia Eagles were 12 months ago. This time around it’s a much different beast from the NFC East. The Commanders lost at Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the regular season, but this is an entirely different football team now. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has emerged as one of the most dynamic signal-callers in the league and he has led Washington to 5 straight wins heading into the playoffs — including 1 over the NFC East champion Eagles. 4 of the Commanders’ 5 setbacks in their 12-5 record have come against playoff teams.

It is true that the Bucs are playing well (6-1 record in their last 7 games), but — after getting swept by the Atlanta Falcons — they needed a second-half collapse by Atlanta to steal the worst division in football. As for their 6-1 stretch, enthusiasm surrounding it should be tempered. They own just 1 win over a playoff opponent (the Los Angeles Chargers) during this stretch and their loss came to an atrocious Dallas Cowboys squad. In a must-win situation in Week 18, Tampa Bay came relatively close to being upset by the New Orleans Saints — who were without question one of the worst teams in the NFL down the stretch, and really dating all the way back to Week 3. Baker Mayfield is balling, but there isn’t a lot to like about this team other than Mayfield and Mike Evans. There is no way I’m giving more than a field goal to the Commanders, who have a good chance to also win outright.

Commanders vs Buccaneers prediction: Commanders +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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Only the top-seeded Detroit Lions scored more points than Washington and Tampa Bay in the NFC during the regular season. Both offenses have been especially hot of late. Mayfield has played at an MVP level ever since his team’s Week 11 bye, leading the Bucs to point totals of 30, 26, 28, 40, 24, 48 and 27 points during their 6-1 surge. The Commanders have been even more of a juggernaut on that side of the ball. Jayden Daniels and company have scored 42, 20, 36, 30 and 23 points (the latter in a meaningless game with many starters not playing) during their 5-game winning streak.

Neither defense seems equipped to slow down the red-hot offense that it will be facing on Sunday night. Washington surrendered 25 touchdowns through the air while making only 7 interceptions (tied for the 4th-fewest in the league) during the regular season. Tampa Bay allowed 27 passing TDs and also recorded a mere 7 picks while ranking 29th in the NFL against the pass. Anything short of an epic QB battle between Daniels and Mayfield would be a disappointment for the casual viewer. The Over is the way to play this contest.

Commanders vs Buccaneers prediction: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 52.

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Until last week, there weren’t many naysayers about the Minnesota Vikings. Finishing 14-3 and nearly earning the #1 seed in the NFC, Kevin O’Connell has seemingly done the impossible, building a serious championship contender after letting go of who was considered their franchise quarterback (Kirk Cousins) last season. Of course, in order to get to the Super Bowl, the Vikings must get by the Lions, a feat that’s proved too difficult for them twice this season. Their opponent in the Wild Card round is no slouch, either.

The Rams already beat the Vikings back on October 24, and it was no fluke. Brian Flores’ lauded, aggressive defense had very little effect on that Thursday evening, sacking Matthew Stafford zero times and allowing 26 first downs, 386 total yards and 30 points. Coincidentally, the Vikings were fresh off a loss to the Lions just 4 days earlier, an interesting predicament considering last Sunday’s result. Either way, we believe the Vikings will look much better against the Rams. Minnesota was on a tear before losing to Detroit, winning 9 straight and often scoring 27+ along that run. It takes simple, short-term memory loss to forget about Detroit and move forward; we’re just not sure how mentally tough an inexperienced Sam Darnold will perform in another high-pressure situation. 

On Monday, Minnesota will return to SoFi Stadium to get their revenge, although we’re not convinced they’ll succeed. Stafford and coach Sean McVay have been here before, Super Bowl champions just 3 short seasons ago. Out of such experiences comes immeasurable synergy, and the Rams have looked fantastic since the start of December. Disregarding their Week 18 contest where they sat all starters, the Rams won 5 straight games, and they looked damn-near championship-worthy in recent victories against the Bills and Ravens. Featuring a defense that’s been improving and sharpening its skillset all season, the Rams own as much offensive-skill talent as any roster in the NFL. They’ll undoubtedly be a handful for the Vikings, and since we give the coach/QB edge to the home team, it’s the only way we can look.

Vikings vs Rams prediction: Rams +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.

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We never mince words in our writeups. Transparency is key in handicapping and we despise touts who claim to know anything before it happens. That being said, this number feels like an absolutely perfect calculation, which makes assessing the over/under very difficult. For those who are more novice bettors, 47 is one of the most important “key numbers” in the NFL, meaning that more games end on a total of 47, by a wide margin, than most others. In the 2024-25 season, the number “47” is somewhat of a precipice, a barrier between low-scoring and high-scoring contests. The market is essentially saying that this game could go either way.

Both defenses have been playing very well. Minnesota has allowed more yards and points, but their defense steps up when it needs to. Since Week 8, they’ve accrued 19 sacks, for example, often drive-killers in the game’s most important moments. The Rams have been extremely stingy, too, permitting 9 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4 games and 14 or less in 4 of their last 6. They’ve also been very bothersome for opposing QBs, earning 12 sacks in their past 5 matchups, and their young, try-hard roster has been increasingly impressive as the season has gone on. Entering the Wild Card round, they’re a top-5 red-zone defense, permitting a touchdown on just 50% of their opponents’ opportunities.

Burgeoning defenses or not, eventually we think the dam will break. Minnesota is an explosive offense right from the get-go, averaging 6.4 points per 1st quarter. We like their chances of scoring early even better since they started much slower recently, scoring zero 1st-quarter points in the last 2 weeks. On turf, without weather concerns and against a young defense, chances are higher that Minnesota will initiate a score right away, meaning that Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford will begin to chase one another immediately. We don’t project that slowing down.

Vikings vs Rams prediction: Over 47 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.

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