Phil Agius
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The No. 1 seed in the AFC is Tennessee’s for the taking on Sunday as they visit the Houston Texans. If the Chiefs beat the Broncos on Saturday, the Titans would need to follow suit in Texas to earn a rest next week. And even if the Chiefs lose, the Titans would be vulnerable to New England and Cincinnati if they were to allow Houston to complete a season sweep over them in the AFC South.
The 4-12 Texans have already defied rock-bottom pre-season expectations by taking 3rd place in the division and they would no doubt love to sign off with the ultimate spoiler victory. It’s no as if the 11-5 Titans haven’t turned in some shockers either, as they lost to the Jets as well as the Texans.
Sunday’s 1:00 pm ET CBS game deserves a same game parlay, so here’s a 4-leg wager we’ve prepared for it — which pays at +838 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Texans +10 (-105)
Over 43 points (-110)
Rex Burkhead over 42.5 rushing yards (-114)
Nico Collins over 27.5 receiving yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +838
Texans +10 (-105)
Tennessee has already had a roller-coaster of a season but the Titans head into their Week 18 game against Houston knowing a win would be enough for them to take the AFC No. 1 seed regardless of Kansas City’s result against Denver on Saturday. A game against the Texans looks like a chip shot — or it would have if they hadn’t lost the teams’ first meeting 22-13 after going into that home game with an 8-2 record. That began a spell of 3 losses in 4 games, but the Titans have gotten back on track at just the right time — passing the Chiefs in the rankings with wins over the 49ers and Dolphins in their last 2 games.
In the last week of the season, it’s often difficult to assess teams’ motivation levels when they have nothing to play for. With the Texans, that’s easier than usual as they have effectively had nothing to play for all season, but they have played impressively hard, winning 2 of their last 3 games against the Jaguars and Chargers before losing to San Francisco last week (although they led the 49ers 7-3 at half-time). Being double-digit underdogs is nothing new for the Texans and they have a 4-5 record against the spread in that situation this season, winning 2 of them straight up. The Texans might not be able to play the ultimate spoiler role again, but they are worth a shot to at least cover as a huge home ‘dogs.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans
Over 43 points (-110)
These teams combined for just 35 points when the Texans pulled off a huge upset in their first meeting, but with Tennessee expected to contribute more than 13 to the total this time around, going over a low line appeals. The Titans posted their highest team score for 8 weeks in Sunday’s 34-3 win over Miami, despite QB Ryan Tannehill having just 120 passing yards. Their last 4 games have stayed under after starting the season 6-4 O/U, but the opposite has happened with the Texans — who had only 4 overs in their first 12 games but have gone over the line in 3 of their last 4 games.
The Texans have nothing to lose by aiming for a series sweep and an end-of-term atmosphere could lead to a higher-scoring game. Either the Titans will need to keep pushing to get the win they need or they might be in a position to ease off, allowing the Texans a chance to score some cheap late points. Either way, this line looks vulnerable. Take the over.
Rex Burkhead over 42.5 rushing yards (-114)
Tennessee looks set to get star running back Derrick Henry back for this game (that doesn’t guarantee victory, as he ran for 157 yards in their loss to the Jets!) and there will be much less focus on Texans journeyman running back Rex Burkhead. Houston rushed 36 times in their first meeting with the Titans and they are trying to keep their offense balanced to keep the pressure off rookie QB Davis Mills. Burkhead has emerged as their leading RB late in the season, having a huge game in the win over the Chargers with 149 yards and a further 47 on 16 carries against the tougher 49ers defense last week. You should expect him to go over this modest line.
Nico Collins over 27.5 receiving yards (-114)
Rookie Nico Collins is the Texans’ 2nd-leading receiver this season, albeit more than 600 yards behind leader Brandin Cooks. Phillip Dorsett was emerging as a potential No. 2, but he is injured now — leaving Collins and Chris Conley as the main backups, with a chance that veteran Danny Amendola could return this week. It makes sense for the team to give targets in the finale to the receiver who is most likely to be around next season, and Collins has passed this line in 3 of his last 4 games (totals of 69-14-33-35).
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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