Phil Agius
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Gameday is approaching for the Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens and yet we still don’t know for sure if Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will be able to return in a bid to halt his team’s 4-game losing streak.
Jackson has not been able to practice since appearing to limp badly on Wednesday due to his lingering ankle injury. It seems increasing likely that Tyler Huntley (back from the Covid list this week) will get another start.
Player props for this game have been understandably scarce given the doubts over the Ravens’ QB situation, but there are enough odds now to put together a Rams-focused 3-leg same game parlay for the 1:00pm ET game on FOX that could cash whether or not Jackson starts. It pays +734 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Rams -9.5 alternate spread
Matthew Stafford over 286.5 passing yards
Tyler Higbee over 32.5 receiving yards
Parlay odds: +734
Let’s take a look at the reasoning behind each leg:
Los Angeles Rams -9.5 alternate spread
The main spread for this game has shifted from Rams -3.5 to Rams -5.5 in the last few days, an indicator of the skepticism about Jackson’s participation, but bettors can get better value by adding on even more points in a game the Rams should be capable of winning comfortably. Baltimore’s slump in the AFC playoff rankings has been rapid and it might not be over yet. When the Ravens overcame 4 Jackson interceptions to beat the Browns 16-10 a month ago, they moved to 8-3 and had the best record in the AFC. Four losses later, the Ravens are ranked 10th in the conference at 8-7. The Rams overcame Covid issues to beat the Seahawks in a delayed game and then went on the road to comfortably hold Minnesota at arm’s length last week. At 11-4, they have made the playoffs already and could take the NFC West title this week before facing the 49ers in Week 18.
Playing in the early time slot doesn’t look ideal according to traditional handicapping theories, but the Rams are 8-2 in 1:00pm ET games since 2017, including a perfect 2-0 record in such spots this season. Baltimore has had few highlights (other than the play of backup QB Huntley) in consecutive losses to the Steelers, Browns, Packers and Bengals, and their fall from grace could continue with another double-digit loss.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Rams vs Baltimore Ravens
Matthew Stafford over 286.5 passing yards
Rams QB Matthew Stafford is up to 13 interceptions on the year, but that’s set against 36 TD passes and the Cooper Kupp-led Rams offense could run free against the injury-ravaged Ravens secondary. Baltimore is missing both its original starting cornerbacks, Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, plus Anthony Averett (ribs), who would have been their No. 1 CB this week. That’s not ideal with the Rams’ creative passing attack coming to town a week after the Bengals lit up the Ravens for 525 passing yards. Full-strength defenses have struggled to cope with Kupp this season, so he should be running free in the Baltimore secondary all Sunday afternoon (along with Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr.). Stafford needs to gain only slightly more than half what Joe Burrow managed last week, and Sean McVay isn’t the type to be shy about exploiting an obvious weakness.
Tyler Higbee over 32.5 receiving yards
With no lines for Beckham or Jefferson available at time of writing — and Kupp’s line in triple-digits — taking the over on Rams tight end Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards is the advised final leg of the parlay. With Beckham and Jefferson providing a deep threat for whoever makes it onto the field in the Ravens’ secondary to deal with, on top of the need to handle Kupp, Higbee is likely to have both a soft matchup and plenty of space to work in. He has cleared this line in 5 of the last 8 weeks, with 48 and 41 in the last 2 games, grabbing 5 of 6 targets in each of those contests. Those performances were against questionable pass defenses from the Jaguars and Vikings, but this banged-up Ravens unit does not represent a step up in grade.
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