Andrew Wilsher
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After 7 wins in a row, the Dolphins have gone from a 1-7 record to holding the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Now they look to do a better job at preserving their spot than they did last year, and that will be put to the test when they head to Nashville to take on the Titans. The Titans have endured a mixed second half of the season, but thanks to early success they are all but guaranteed to be in the postseason and will likely have Derrick Henry back. For now though, they are focused on wrapping up the AFC South.
There’s a lot on the line in this game, and one way to make it even more exciting is by betting a same game parlay. I’ve gone for 4 legs here which if successful will return juicy +2156 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Miami Dolphins +3.5 (-115)
Under 39.5 points (-110)
Duke Johnson to score a touchdown (+240)
Geoff Swaim over 15.5 receiving yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +2156
The first three plays of this are all effectively coordinated, as the Dolphins ATS and Johnson to score a TD tie in nicely, and the under 39.5 isn’t much of a factor in that as the Fins will likely need a TD to cover the spread anyway. But Swaim’s receiving prop bumps it up nicely, when really it doesn’t affect any of the picks too much as it’s such a low line. Still, I like it a lot. Let’s break it all down.
Miami Dolphins +3.5 (-115)
I’ve been high on this Dolphins team since before the season started and I’m not ready to jump off the bandwagon just yet. With that in mind, I expect them to cover a field goal here. The Titans got a big win against the 49ers last week, but that was just their second win in their last 5 games and they have not scored more than 20 points in any of those matchups. That doesn’t bode well considering they’re now going up against a Miami defense that has allowed more than 17 points just once in its last 7 games. Their sack-first mentality has been running riot against helpless QBs, with Ian Book their latest victim, and they lead the league with 45. The Titans, meanwhile, have given up that many sacks (4th-most in NFL) and that could spell disaster for their already struggling offense.
The Dolphins’ offense has been efficient with Tua Tagovailoa creating great chemistry with Jaylen Waddle, and in a game that I expect to be low-scoring, getting those 3.5 points could be big.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans
Under 39.5 points (-110)
A lot of what I said above also applies to why I like the under. Miami’s defense has been phenomenal, while Tennessee’s offense has been pretty stagnant. As for Miami’s offense, it has been solid without being spectacular. The run game has struggled under Myles Gaskin and now Duke Johnson and Phillip Lindsay have started to get more carries. As for the passing game, there isn’t a lot to shout about and the Titans showed last week against the 49ers how dangerous they can be against opposing QBs. Both teams’ defenses have performed a lot better than their offenses and I expect that to be shown in the final score.
Duke Johnson to score a touchdown (+240)
I’d been down on Myles Gaskin for weeks, and it’s no surprise that he’s effectively been replaced by a Johnson/Lindsay double act. However, Johnson is the more likely RedZone ball-carrier and getting him at +240 to find the end zone poses terrific value. He proved against the Jets what a threat he can be with the ball when he ran in for 2 scores, and although the Titans have been solid against the run, Johnson should have opportunities to score a touchdown.
Geoff Swaim over 15.5 receiving yards (-114)
This last leg might seem a little random, but hear me out. Swaim has topped this line in 4 of his last 7 games and gets a solid amount of targets from Tannehill — 3 or more in 5 of his last 7 games. With the Dolphins’ blitz-heavy approach, I would expect Tannehill to target Swaim more often than usual as he looks to get the ball out of his hands quickly. This isn’t anything new for offenses facing the Dolphins — the Jets had 3 tight ends top 16 yards 2 weeks ago and the Giants had 2 top the line 3 weeks ago (including Evan Engram having 61 yards). I expect Swaim to join that group in this matchup.
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