The walls have come crashing in on both the Saints and Panthers’ season and a long, hard period of reflection is just around the corner for both franchises. New Orleans’ loss to the Dolphins on Monday dealt a hammer blow to their playoff chances as they fell to 7-8 and while a victory on Sunday will keep them mathematically in the hunt for another week, CBS give them just a 28% of reaching the postseason. Reaching the playoffs would only mask what’s just around the corner, which is a serious rebuild with the Saints entering 2022 in salary cap hell.
The situation at the Saints’ NFC South rivals is even worse with Matt Rhule’s job as head coach hanging in the balance after losing 21 of his 31 games in charge. Owner David Tepper is unhappy and who can blame him with the team having fallen off a cliff after starting the year 3-0. The Panthers’ offense is non-existent and the defense can no longer take the weight of having to carry the team.
This has all the makings of an ugly divisional showdown and you can read our full preview for Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints here. Meanwhile, we’ve put together a same game parlay that returns at a tasty +1708. Check it out, alongside our reasoning for each leg below.
New Orleans to win by 1-13 points (+130)
Saints D/ST anytime touchdown scorer (+500)
Parlay odds: +1708
New Orleans to win by 1-13 points (+130)
The Saints were easily brushed aside by the Panthers when they met in Week 2 but are 6.5-point favorites for the return matchup. That feels like a large number to cover for a team averaging 21.1 ppg and instead of playing the spread, taking them in the winning margin market might prove more prudent.
New Orleans should win this game, with Taysom Hill back they arguably have the better quarterback under center after the Panthers announced Sam Darnold will start this game. Hill is far from perfect but he makes plays, which Darnold has stopped doing. He completed 15 of his 32 pass attempts in last week’s loss to the Buccaneers and has a 7-to-11 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio on the year.
In Alvin Kamara, the Saints have another talent who can open up games, which the Panthers are lacking. DJ Moore’s numbers have dwindled, while Chubba Hubbard is clearly no Christian McCaffrey. New Orleans has the better defense too, ranking fourth in total defense DVOA. The Panthers have dropped to 12th thanks largely to their inability to stop the run. Carolina won’t have top corner Stephon Gilmore available for this game either.
New Orleans is marginally or significantly better than Carolina in nearly every department and having won 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Panthers, looks like a nice play to edge out Carolina by less than 2 touchdowns.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints
Saints D/ST anytime touchdown scorer (+500)
I don’t feel I’ve made myself clear enough about these two teams thus far so here goes: Both these offenses stink. The Saints have scored an amazing 12 points over the last two games, while the Panthers have only scored more than 21 points once in the last nine games.
Only Trevor Lawrence has a lower passer rating than Darnold (71.8) since 2020 amongst QBs with 15 or more starts, and while as much as I enjoy Taysom Hill’s cameos in the Saints offense, he’s not a starting quarterback. Clearly, the best units in this game are the respective defenses so why not take a chance on the Saints defense or special teams coming up with a score? It’s worth remembering that we are just a fortnight removed from the Saints handing Tom Brady the first shutout loss of his career, so imagine what they could do to Darnold?
The Saints have recorded 16 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries on the year, converting 2 of those interceptions into touchdowns. Star safety Malcolm Jenkins is back for this game and he and the rest of the secondary should relish facing Darnold. Darnold has 11 interceptions on the year, making up a large wedge of the 25 times the Panthers have lost the ball when on offense. Carolina has given up 3 touchdowns to defenses and special teams this year so let’s roll with the Saints defense at a big price.
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